Severe Weather Outlook - Tue 6/30 to Mon 7/6

[venture]

Day 1 Outlook


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[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PINE
BLUFF ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 533...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER AR
ALONG WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
LEADING TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH CAPE...SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.
ISOLATED CELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WESTWARD ALONG THE WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXIST.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30020.

[Thunder]

I'm surprised.

Any developing storms will move S/SW as in backward?

[venture]

Boundary where storms will develop is showing up nicely on visible satellite. Storms will move S to SSE today.

[SoonerDave]

If you're in the OKC area, look to the north and northwest....(its around 2:23pm right now) and you'll see some of those little cumulus clouds trying to organize and tower just a bit, right along a line that matches up with that satellite photo above and at the edge of the watch area...

[westsidesooner]

Im going to go outside and do a raindance.....maybe it'll help.

[venture]

Initiation has begun just to the west of the watch box area. New MCD is out for it...



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301938Z - 302115Z

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT
FROM WESTERN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM. THOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH SPARSE
STORM COVERAGE...SO A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

AT 19Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED NEAR 35 N OKC-AMA-LVS LINE.
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FRONT HAD WARMED INTO THE MID 90S...WITH
DEWPOINTS LOWERING INTO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. EVEN THOUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAD MIXED AND DRIED...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...PW/S
BETWEEN 1.25-1.5 INCHES AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HEAVY RAIN CORES...THE STRONGER
DOWNDRAFT INTO THE WELL MIXED AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND THE LACK OF RICHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY WIDELY
SCATTERED...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORM BRIEF. ALSO...THE
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS
MOVING SSEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM.

[venture]

Development is increasing on cell in NE Canadian County...keep dancing WS. : )

Custer County cells are developing pretty rapidly now.

[Thunder]

WSS, make sure you do the actual raindance, not the dance that brings down this site.

Venture, what the probability for a tornado?

They extended the Sligh Risk toward out west.

[venture]

Umm tornado chance? About 0.00000000000000001%. To be honest, tornado threat won't be a concern again until probably September or October.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
357 pm cdt tue jun 30 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southern lincoln county in central oklahoma...

* until 445 pm cdt

* at 357 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm 3 miles west of chandler...moving south at 5
mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include chandler and sparks.

This includes interstate 44 between mile markers 162 and 170.

[venture]

Development is really struggling in the I-35 corridor. Those lucky enough to get under these storms will get rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.25 inches an hour. Enjoy the water.

[westsidesooner]

WSS, make sure you do the actual raindance, not the dance that brings down this site.

You noticed that huh....lol. Well you know what they say about white bois. Sorry about the crash. Looks like my rain dance days are done, notice how the storms seem to be avoiding Ok county. sigh. sorry. Guess I'll be turning on the sprinkler when I get home.

[Thunder]

Yeah, I'm a bit disgusted that storms are going around OKC and Mid-Del portions again. That storm to the east, I'm hoping it continue to build/spread westward as it moves south.

I'm bout go to work now, so I'd love a good soakin fun, so continue with that dance, WSS!

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OK...AR...EXTREME NWRN MS...NRN/ERN
PANHANDLE OF TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534...

VALID 302314Z - 010115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534
CONTINUES.

STG-SVR TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY
TROUGH AND CONFLUENCE LINE...ANALYZED AT 23Z FROM TANEY COUNTY MO
WSWWD ACROSS NRN FRINGES OKC AREA TO ROGER MILLS COUNTY OK. FORWARD
PROPAGATION ALONG OUTFLOWS WILL MOVE TSTMS GENERALLY SWWD ACROSS WRN
OK AND INTO ERN PANHANDLE...SWD OVER CENTRAL OK...AND SSEWD TO ESEWD
ACROSS ERN OK AND AR.

INITIAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS N OF LIT HAS WEAKENED...AND OTHER ACTIVITY
IN AREA IS OUTFLOW DOMINANT GIVEN PRESENCE OF SEVERAL PRONOUNCED
BOUNDARIES MOVING AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN REFLECTIVITY
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED -- AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES AND ESPECIALLY THEIR INTERSECTIONS. PRECONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT OVER WRN...S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL AR IS CHARACTERIZED
BY RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH POTENTIAL TO SUSTAIN
STG-SVR GUSTS AND HAIL DESCENDING TO SFC. SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL UP TO 1.75 HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM LIT AREA AND SURROUNDING
COUNTIES DURING PAST 1-2 HORUS. NET CONVECTIVE MOTION OF
BEST-ORGANIZED COMPLEXES OVER CENTRAL/ERN AR IS ESEWD TOWARD NWRN
MS. SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AND LESS BUOYANT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN E OF
MS RIVER...HOWEVER...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN MORE STABLE WITH
SFC COOLING NEAR SUNSET. THEREFORE...SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO MS.

ELSEWHERE...TSTM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED...WITH SPORADIC GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS...AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE. OVERALL THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 02Z AS
OUTFLOWS SPREAD OVER LARGE AREAS...AND NEAR-SFC LAYER COOLS
DIABATICALLY...COMBINING TO REMOVE MUCH OF MLCAPE PRESENT IN
PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

[dmoor82]

Yeah, I'm a bit disgusted that storms are going around OKC and Mid-Del portions again. That storm to the east, I'm hoping it continue to build/spread westward as it moves south.

I'm bout go to work now, so I'd love a good soakin fun, so continue with that dance, WSS!

you spoke too quik MWC got slammed a little while ago! near Carl Albert HS they got high winds and pea size hail! OK OK they really didnt get slammed,but they did get a heavy t-storm,and your right about it backbuilding to the west thats exactly what it did!

[Luke]

My electricity (in Del City) was off for about 30 minutes. It was quite the potent little storm.

[westsidesooner]

Didn't rain a drop on the westside........

[Thunder]

WSS, your dance was a HUGE SUCCESS!!! Just as soon I arrived, lights went out! About 20 minutes later, we got slammed! Really slammed for like a long time! I was so soaked.

[westsidesooner]

Umm tornado chance? About 0.00000000000000001%. To be honest, tornado threat won't be a concern again until probably September or October.

I know there was no tornadoes yesterday, but there was a funnel. The storm was a potent little rascal. Pics of funnel on kfor website near crossroads mall. KFOR your space where you send in your pictures of weather events in Oklahoma. - KFOR

Thunder....your welcome, but as I mentioned it didnt do any good on the westside.

[Thunder]

We had a funnel!

[westsidesooner]

An outflow boundary from storms that are dying over NE OK. is now moving thru the metro and is forecast to end up stalling from near Norman to El Reno this afternoon. Hopefully we'll see some rain out of this. Keep your fingers crossed. With the 4th just around the corner we could use the rain to keep fire chances down. The OFB shows up very well on Ventures first post of this thread both on satelite and radar.

From the NWS:




.NOW...
...REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR. A SMALL COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAD JUST GRAZED KAY COUNTY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
THUNDER...ON ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WAS MOVING SOUTH...AND STRETCHED FROM CUSHING TO GUTHRIE...BACK
NORTHWEST TO FAIRVIEW AND WOODWARD. THE WESTERN END OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEAR WOODWARD...WHILE THE EASTERN END IS EXPECTED TO
REACH SHAWNEE...NORMAN... AND EL RENO...BEFORE STALLING. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
BECOME A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

[venture]

Thanks to the mods for updating the title.

General rule of thumb the next week...storms will that get out of hand will be hail and wind producers. We aren't in a tornadic setup at all...typical summer time storms. Severe weather will be pretty isolated until the 4th, when there should be a better chance - especially along and north of I-40. SPC has a slight risk out for this area in their Day 3.

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HAVE ADVECTED OVER THE
CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO A PORTION OF THE MID/LOWER MS IN VICINITY
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE PROBABLE AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS FARTHER
WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN ON SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT WITH BULK SHEAR MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS
STORMS DEVELOP SWD INTO MORE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS.

[venture]

New Day 2 for 4th of July...

Slight risk now includes all except for SE and NW Oklahoma (including the panhandle).

...SRN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
STRONG HEATING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODEST AT BEST...LARGE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP
MIXED LAYER...AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE DCAPE VALUES INDICATIVE OF ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT INTENSITY AND
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SWD ALONG THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

[venture]

Today's Severe Risk...Day 1 outlook

...SRN PLNS...
STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED ALONG/S OF ADVANCING CDFNT AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SATURDAY AFTN. SFC DEW POINTS UPR 60S/LWR 70S COMBINED
WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE MLCAPES 2000 J/KG FROM THE
TX S PLNS EWD INTO OK. SUSTAINED LLVL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
BOUNDARIES WILL YIELD WDLY SCT ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT...INITIALLY
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN CNTRL/ERN OK...THEN ALONG THE CDFNT FROM
WRN OK/TX S PLNS LATER. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY LESS ACROSS THE REGION THAN AT POINTS FARTHER
NE...INVERTED-V SUB-CLOUD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MID-LVL DRY AIR
WILL AUGMENT DOWNDRAFTS RESULTING IN DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE STRONGEST
OF STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM. SVR THREATS WILL CONTINUE SWD
INVOF BOUNDARIES DURING THE EVENING.