Severe Weather Outlook - Mon 6/1 & Tue 6/2

[venture]

Monday
- Mostly out west...western 1/3rd of Oklahoma with isolated storms that may move in late. Very small risk.

Day 2 Discussion:
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

SCATTERED...DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE IN ADVANCE OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY MOIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/...HOWEVER RATHER STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WHILE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY APPROACH 30-35 KT.

A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF W TX IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS SHOULD LATER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND/OR VERTICAL SHEAR.

Tuesday
- Across most of the area roughly along and west of I-44. Main risk is damaging wind and hail right now.

Day 3 Discussion:
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL COINCIDE WITH EML/STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF FRONTAL ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW-MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD FOSTER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ALONG BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY SHEARED...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION TO LINE SEGMENTS OR A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

[Thunder]

Maybe we'll see some....

[kevinpate]

If yuk weather will kindly stay west of I-44 this week and next, I'll be fairly happy

[venture]

I'm ready for some rain before we get locked into our long dry season. : )

[Jon27]

I'm ready for some rain before we get locked into our long dry season. : )

I agree, we need one more good shower. The problem is the mosquitoes though. They are thick this year!

[westsidesooner]

The problem is the mosquitoes though. They are thick this year!

Yeah, they came out strong after that last rain. I had to quit working in the yard the other night because the mosquitos were getting fat and tired. Poor lil s.o.b.'s. Glad to see a new weather thread, I was afraid the season was done. And we do need more rain before the summer dry spell kicks in.

[venture]

Yeah I have been keeping yard work to the morning/early afternoon so I've avoided them for the most part. Need to get a bug fogger before I even think about being out in the evenings. I miss living in areas where they actually spray (air and ground) for mosquitoes.

[venture]

Day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1230 pm cdt mon jun 01 2009

valid 021200z - 031200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from the srn and cntrl plains
into the mid ms and oh valleys...

...synopsis...

Blocking pattern will continue through tuesday with a large scale
trough amplifying across the great lakes and a closed upper low
persisting off the ca coast. A ridge axis will extend from the
pacific nw sewd into the cntrl rockies. Vorticity maximum currently
near the four corners area will drift slowly ewd into ks and ok
saturday afternoon.

At the surface cp high pressure will surge swd through the plains
and upper ms valley in association with nrn stream impulse moving
sewd through broader upper trough. This will result in enhancement
and swd progression of baroclinic zone now extending from the cntrl
plains ewd into the great lakes region. By late afternoon the front
should extend from the oh-mid ms valleys swwd into the tx panhandle
where it will intersect the dryline that will extend swd through wrn
tx.


...cntrl and srn plains area...

As upper low currently near the four corners area drifts ewd into ks
and ok...a belt of 25-30 kt mid level flow will develop through nrn
portions of wrn tx into wrn ok. This belt of stronger flow will
advect steeper mid-level lapse rates ewd above low-mid 60s dewpoints
with 2000-2500 j/kg mlcape expected over a portion of the srn high
plains and 1500-2000 j/kg possible farther nwd into ks. Storms will
likely be in progress within zone of lift along and north of frontal
boundary from neb and possibly into nrn ks. Potential for ongoing
convection farther south in warm sector remains uncertain at this
time. Storms are expected to intensify along the front as boundary
layer destabilizes. With stronger mid level flow remaining post
frontal...storms developing along front should be multicellular in
character with a threat for isolated strong wind gusts and hail.
Activity will develop sewd during the evening.

Farther south from nrn parts of wrn tx into swrn ok...other storms
should develop along nrn end of dryline or on dryline/cold front
intersection where vertical shear will be augmented by the belt of
25-30 kt mid level flow. Vertical shear of 30-40 kt and moderate
instability will be supportive of some supercell structures...but
low level hodographs will remain small due to weak low level winds.
Primary threats will be isolated large hail and damaging wind
gusts...but a brief tornado or two may also be possible during the
early evening.

[westsidesooner]

Still hoping for a shower tonight, but looking forward to tomorrow. What do you think will happen V.....any chance for some dryline storms? Also I'm really starting to look towards the weekend and next week. Rumor has it we could return to a more active pattern. SPC mentions this in their extended outlook.


BTW...okctalk is very slow loading today.....is it just me?

[venture]

Yeah tomorrow could be pretty nice for some decent wind/hail storms. Yeah I noticed SPC picking up on next weekend. GFS is downplaying it the last I looked, but I need to go back and look at today's runs. My first tornado bagged on a chase in Oklahoma was the June 13th tornadoes that were in El Reno, Lake Hefner, and Frontier City. I still remember driving down I-35 with debris falling on the car after going through Frontier City.

Yes, this site is running extremely slow today...last few minutes seemed to have picked up some, so not sure what is going on.

[Thunder]

Really wish it rained today, cuz the 1st is full of Food Stamp people. At least, the clouds covered the sun and the breeze helped a lot. It looked like spotty showers was coming thru, but that didn't happen. Hopefully, tomorrow won't be that late.

[venture]

Day 1 Outlook Graphics for Tuesday 6/2/09

*These graphics will update throughout the day*

[venture]

Day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0100 am cdt tue jun 02 2009

valid 021200z - 031200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from the srn/central plains to the mid ms/oh valleys and mid atlantic states...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across nrn ca and swrn ore...

...synopsis...
Deterministic models maintain a rex block over the ern pacific/along west coast of north america...and a large upper trough extending from central/ern canada into the upper ms valley and great lakes region. Strong wly mid-upper level winds will persist from the north central states to new england...with a short wave trough tracking from nd/nrn mn/nwrn ontario to srn quebec/nrn new england this forecast period. Elsewhere...a lower latitude vorticity maximum will shift slowly ewd through ks/ok.

At the surface...a cold front will settle slowly swd through the mid atlantic states and oh valley. Cp high pressure will build s/sewd through the plains and upper ms valley in association with nrn stream trough moving ewd through broader upper trough. This will result in enhancement and swd progression of baroclinic zone into the mid ms valley and ks. By late afternoon...the front should extend wwd from srn pa through the oh to mid ms valleys...and then swwd through swrn ks to tx panhandle...where it intersects a dry line extending swd through w tx.

...central/srn plains to lower mo valley...
At 12z...tstms should be ongoing along and n of the surface front from nrn mo/srn ia to the central high plains. In addition...a weakening mcs may still have some active convection across srn ok and through n and nw tx. Sly low level winds will advect moisture nnewd through the warm sector today. An eml/ern extent of steep mid level lapse rates /7+ c/km/ are expected to spread ewd atop the returning low level moisture /surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s/. This combined with surface heating will result in moderate instability /mlcape up to 2500 j/kg across w/nw tx where mid level lapse rates will be steeper and values up to 1500 j/kg into the lower mo valley/. Forcing for ascent attendant to the low latitude vort max will spread ewd across the destabilizing warm sector. This combined with convergence along the swd moving cold front and any outflow boundaries from monday night tstm clusters will support new tstms by afternoon...and possibly sooner along srn periphery of ongoing activity in the central plains/ lower mo valley.

Strongest wly mid level winds/deep layer shear are expected to be located over ok/nrn tx including panhandle along srn periphery of vort max. Greatest potential for organized strong to severe storms will be across the srn plains...while more multicellular activity is expected with newd extent into the lower mo valley where mid level winds will be much weaker. Hail and damaging winds are expected to be the primary threats. However...some low level hodograph curvature per forecast soundings suggests an isolated tornado threat cannot be ruled out across mainly the ok/tx portion of the slight risk area where supercells will be more likely.

Models indicate one or two mcs will evolve this evening into tonight across srn ks to n tx as a sly llj undergoes some strengthening....with elevated moderate instability and 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear maintaining a severe weather threat well after dark.

[Thunder]

Storms popping up SW of the metro. One seem to be intense, but tough trying to get organized with the other storms popping up.

[westsidesooner]

My first tornado bagged on a chase in Oklahoma was the June 13th tornadoes that were in El Reno, Lake Hefner, and Frontier City. I still remember driving down I-35 with debris falling on the car after going through Frontier City.

My favorite chase day. We caught the tornado near Guthrie then came back to the city and caught the one as it approached then crossed lake Hefner. The mothership storm. I'll always remember coming up on the lake from the golf course and seeing what I thought was smoke rising....before realizing it was water being lifted off the lake and into the storm. It was awesome. The waves on the lake were easily 4-5'. Never seen anything like it before.....at least not on a small lake.



Any reason why these two areas are so favored by the NWS this morning for this afternoon? Does Clinton have a storm disapator device? lol

[venture]

They seem to be going with WRF as their focused model right now judging by that graphic.

[Thunder]

It looks like KOCO got their thinkings to include Isolated Tornadoes in the slight risk areas. They've gotten chasers in place.

[venture]

If there is one in the body of Oklahoma today, I'll be shocked. Latest analysis of the atmosphere over Oklahoma...just about the western half has been worked over thanks to the rains/storms this morning and early afternoon. Things are pretty stable especially here in Central Oklahoma. We should become somewhat unstable as we continue to bake under the sun. Either way things should stay under control for the evening/overnight unless something changes drastically. SPC has removed all but far west OK from the slight risk today.

[westsidesooner]

This should be in the pet peeves thread but I didnt think they'd understand....lol

My pet peeve for today is ...Crapvection.

[venture]

Very much so. Instability overhead has tanked to less than 500 j/kg with CIN increasing. Not looking good for even some good rain to get us through the upcoming dry stretch.

[Thunder]

Totally a disgusting day with no rain. Just checked, there is some coming on the way, but that isn't enough.