Good Morning Tropics

[venture]

Models have hinted at it for a few days now...



SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER
SPECIAL OUTLOOK REGARDING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED TUESDAY
MORNING.

[Thunder]

Yeah, it seem that Hurricane Season never rest. It feels like it was just yesterday the previous season ended and already we're going into the next season.

Venture, give us your prediction count on how many named tropical storms and hurricanes in all category we'll see this year.

[venture]

and Good Night again. LOL

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
830 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS BECOMING
ABSORBED BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER FLORIDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELED. IN ADDITION...LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NON-TROPICAL
LOW OVER FLORIDA IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

[venture]

Guess I can update this now. :-P

TD1 has formed off the east coast. Won't do much, but the Tropical Season 2009 is now under way.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
500 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
30 KT...WHICH REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS THE CENTER OVER THE GULF STREAM FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HR IN A
LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR
DURING THAT TIME AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER THAT...COLDER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY
36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AFTER 48 HR. IT IS POSSBLE THAT BOTH
OF THESE EVENTS COULD HAPPEN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/14. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERLIES BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN
CANADA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 37.7N 69.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 38.7N 67.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 40.4N 62.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 42.2N 57.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 30/1800Z 43.9N 52.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[venture]

No major tropical activity at all right now, but today is the official start of the season and some changes to the product NHC puts out - for those that follow the tropics.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM ANNUAL AVERAGES OF TROPICAL STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES IN THIS BASIN ARE 11...6...AND 2...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2009 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION
-----------------------------
ANA.........AH- NAH
BILL
CLAUDETTE.........CLAW DET-
DANNY
ERIKA.........ERR- REE KA
FRED
GRACE
HENRI.........AHN REE-
IDA
JOAQUIN.........WAH KEEN-
KATE
LARRY
MINDY
NICHOLAS.........NIK- O LAS
ODETTE.........O DET-
PETER
ROSE
SAM
TERESA.........TE REE- SA
VICTOR.........VIC- TER
WANDA


THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEGINNING THIS YEAR...THE OUTLOOK WILL ALSO CONTAIN CATEGORICAL PROBABILITIES OF FORMATION...I.E. LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...MEDIUM...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OR HIGH...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT FOR EACH DISTURBANCE DESCRIBED. THE ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES WILL BE 1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EDT.

IN PREVIOUS YEARS...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT COULD BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES IN BETWEEN ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AND WILL NO LONGER BE ISSUED. INSTEAD...A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT National Hurricane Center

USERS WILL NOTICE A SLIGHT CHANGE TO REFERENCES TO THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE IN NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PUBLIC PRODUCTS THIS YEAR. EVEN THOUGH THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE CATEGORY (1 TO 5) IS DETERMINED SOLELY BY THE HURRICANE'S MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED...THE SCALE TRADITIONALLY HAS ALSO INCLUDED STORM SURGE RANGES AND FLOODING REFERENCES. ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS FOR THE 2009 HURRICANE SEASON...THESE STORM SURGE RANGES AND FLOODING REFERENCES WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE DESCRIPTIONS FOR EACH CATEGORY. WITH THIS MODIFICATION...THE SCALE HAS BEEN RENAMED THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO THE WIND SPEED THRESHOLDS OF THE SCALE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THIS EXPERIMENTAL CHANGE AND ON HOW TO PROVIDE COMMENTS...PLEASE SEE /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/INFOSERVICECHANGES/SSHWS.PDF

[venture]

Just some facts on the storm names this year. This is the same list from 2003 with a few changes. Fabian, Isabel, and Juan were retired from that list.

Fabian attained Major Hurricane (Cat 4, winds 145 mph) status on Sept 5, 2003 and passed just west of Bermuda. It still killed 3 people there and caused $336 million in damage (current dollars). Also claimed the life of a surfer in NC due to its waves and 3 fishermen in Newfoundland.



Isabel peaked as Category 5 hurricane on Sept 11, 2003 with winds of 165 mph. It weakened prior to making landfall in North Carolina, a Cat 2 at the time, but caused over $4 billion in damage on the east coast and took 51 lives.



Juan developed on Sept 24, 2003 and topped out as a Category 2 hurricane. It made landfall Sept 29 near Halifax, Nova Scotia with winds of 100 mph. The storm took 8 live and caused $170 million in damage. It was the worst hurricane to strike Halifax in modern history.