Severe Weather Risk - May 5 Tuesday
Morning, throwing the outlook and MCD out fast. Risk is mainly I-40 to the south since the warm front isn't expected to move much farther north.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 05 2009
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SRN
OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
SEABOARD AND ERN GULF COAST STATES...
...SRN PLAINS...
A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES AS A LOW-LEVEL JET OVER WEST TX INCREASES MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH TODAY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ON THE NOSE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN WRN OK THIS MORNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS...MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE WARM SECTOR
WILL BE UNDISTURBED ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION. WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F ACROSS NORTH TX AND SRN
OK...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP WITH SFC-BASED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MOSTLY LIKELY IN SW OK OR NW TX DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING EWD DURING
THE EARLY EVENING.
NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE RED RIVER AT 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOW
AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
OF 55 TO 60 KT AND MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. THIS ALONG
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCTION. THE MORE
DOMINANT SUPERCELLS COULD CONTAIN VERY LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...LCL HEIGHTS BELOW 500 METERS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
IN THE EARLY EVENING. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
IF A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING. AN
ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST FURTHER EAST ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IF AN MCS ORGANIZES ACROSS NE TX INTO SW AR.
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Originally Posted by venture79
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