Severe Weather Potential - 4/28 and 4/29

[venture]

Since I know people are expecting this. LOL

Slight risk of severe weather from I-35 to the west from overnight tonight through tomorrow. Main risk is going to be some hail storms. Little to no tornado threat. So if you get woke up in the middle of the night, the worst thing expected is that your yard is getting a nice buffing.

SPC Outlook for tomorrow:

...SRN THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS AREAS...

AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND TIMING OF IMPULSES EJECTING INTO THE
PLAINS CONTINUE TO COMPLICATE THIS FORECAST. A FEW STORMS AND
POSSIBLY A MCS OR TWO MAY BE IN PROGRESS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET. SOME
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY EXIST WITH THE EARLY ACTIVITY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD
THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
AND HELP TO MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL GRADUALLY VEER AS
THE IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD. THESE PROCESSES SHOULD SUSTAIN EARLY
STORMS EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT...BUT EVEN MODEST WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
PROMOTE STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IN
WARM SECTOR. VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FROM CNTRL TX
NWD INTO OK WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS CONDITIONAL DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF A MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. MID LEVEL FLOW AND BULK SHEAR WILL LIKELY
BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACROSS KS BETWEEN FASTER NRN STREAM FLOW AND SRN
STREAM IMPULSE.

[Thunder]

Came home bout an hour ago and seeing some storms far SW portion of the state moving NE. No watches. Just that one Heavy T-Storm warning that I've seen.

[Thunder]

Here an update for those this morning that checks OKCTalk without turning on the TV.

Storms in the SW portion of the state continues to expand and move NE toward the metro. Here is the radar posted at 4:40am.



The below pix may change since the time of this post.



The cold front that swept thru the state yesterday stalled around the Red River border. It is now a warm front and moving back north thru the metro. The front is sparking storms in the SW portion of the state and these storms are ongoing and moving NE toward the metro.

What to expect? Heavy rain. Some hail and lightning. At this time, there is no concern for a tornado.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
208 UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING WHICH REPLACES A PORTION OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206. THE NEW WATCH IS VALID FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

COMANCHE COTTON GREER
HARMON JACKSON KIOWA
TILLMAN

IN TEXAS THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN TEXAS

FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX
WICHITA WILBARGER

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALTUS...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...
FREDERICK...HOBART...HOLLIS...KNOX CITY...LAWTON...MANGUM...
MUNDAY...QUANAH...VERNON...WALTERS AND WICHITA FALLS.

Throughout the night, additional watches placed.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
208 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 18 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CANADIAN CLEVELAND GRADY
MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA POTTAWATOMIE

IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

BLAINE

IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

CARTER GARVIN JEFFERSON
LOVE MURRAY STEPHENS

IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

CADDO

IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA

BECKHAM CUSTER ROGER MILLS
WA****A

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN TEXAS

ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANADARKO...ARCHER CITY...ARDMORE...
CHEYENNE...CHICKASHA...CLINTON...CORDELL...DUNCAN. ..EL RENO...
ELK CITY...HENRIETTA...MARIETTA...MOORE...MUSTANG...NO RMAN...
OKLAHOMA CITY...PAULS VALLEY...PURCELL...SAYRE...SEYMOUR...
SHAWNEE...SULPHUR...WATONGA...WAURIKA...WEATHERFOR D AND YUKON.

Bottom line, grab an umbrella, drive safely with the extra drive time, and have a great work day!

[Thunder]

At this time, over the next 3 days, the state is under a Slight Risk for any severe weather. Keep in mind, anything can change in a flash.

[Thunder]

Here is a further out west view and posted around 4:50am.



Storms continue to develop and move E/NE.

Areas that are prone to flood risk need to be on alert for sudden rising flood water. Specifically the NW and North Central part of the state that had already seen 5 to 10" of rain recently will especially need to be on high alert. Elsewhere, flooding can occur at any time rapidly, especially areas that are at risk for flooding. Be prepared, know alternative routes, and do not drive thru any water that covers the road.

[Thunder]

This is not confirmed. Possible tornado, meaning there is rotation, but as of now, no confirmed sighting or funnel touchdown. People down south need to be on alert. Things can change suddenly.

[westsidesooner]

As of 10am there appears to be a mesolow over central Oklahoma. It looks like the main threat for the next few hours will be heavy rain and flooding. If the complex now in place over central Oklahoma moves on out and we get some sunshine this afternoon we may get some more substantial development out west.

[venture]

A good couple inches of rain here. I was mildly entertained watching bags of grass from a house down the street go floating by. Now if only I could get rid of the lake in the front yard.

[OKCMallen]

Not super heavy rain downtown, but it's steady. What is most notable is how DARK it is, I think.

[Luke]

It is very dark, indeed.

[westsidesooner]

At least my AC is getting a break, the rain washed the oak pollen off my truck, the lawn is watered and the wildfire season should come to an end. But yeah, its really dark this morning. Clouds are clearing out west so it sould start to lighten up some soon.

Just checked radar, there appears to be some very strong winds from Ada (65mph per mesonet) to Sulphur to Ardmore. Probably be some light damage down there from wind.



Just to add something, notice there are a few missing data points from south central Oklahoma on the mesonet. OG&E is also reporting several power outages down south, so the damage could be a little worse than I thought.

[westsidesooner]

Carter County Emergency mgmt is reporting damage and minor injuries at the elementary school in Healdton. All from straight-line winds of around 70 mph. I would expect widespread straigh-line wind damage in southern Oklahoma form the looks of the radar presentation.

[ultimatesooner]

I'm so ready for some tornadoes

[Charlie40]

I'm so ready for some tornadoes

ooooo me too

[Luke]

Y'all are crazy.

[ultimatesooner]

Y'all are crazy.

can't disagree with you there

[Thunder]

Y'all are crazy.

C'mon, Luke, we all know you love tornadoes!

[westsidesooner]

What are your thoughts on tonight and especially tomorrow Venture. I noticed new storms out west. Is it to cool for the storms to maintain themselves into c. ok tonight?

[venture]

I think it is a matter of where the boundaries go. The cold front to the south should start moving back north tonight, and should bring the rain back with it. The storms out west I could see moving in, I don't think they'll be at the intensity they are now though. I wouldn't be shocked if we have another repeat of this morning tomorrow.

I will say that these various MCSs do pose a bit of difficulty in forecasting them. This morning's spawned a quick tornado in Seminole, even though is was a near classic bow structure MCS. Out in the southern Panhandle right now there are about 3-4 supercells just cruising along...I would imagine these will eventually merge together and start moving east along the boundary. As the boundary moves north, that could push the storms over us. However, there is also the part of the complexes forcing the boundary further south with the cold pools they are putting out.

However, forecast as it is now is the front moving north, storms along it and more strong-severe storms tomorrow afternoon along and north of it. Say what you want about tornadoes and such, but I am really wanting to see a derecho event with that classic mothership cloud formation. Now not that I don't want to see the widespread damage, but visually, these events are more stirring than tornado in my opinion.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDere...1/oklagust.wmv

[westsidesooner]

Say what you want about tornadoes and such, but I am really wanting to see a derecho event with that classic mothership cloud formation. Now not that I don't want to see the widespread damage, but visually, these events are more stirring than tornado in my opinion.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDere...1/oklagust.wmv

Yeah, Anytime there are MCS/MCC's around the forecasting is a dog. I hadn't heard of the tornado in Seminole, but from the radar presentation this morning thats very close to where the vortex of the MCS was (coma). About the Drechos .... are you my lost twin? I love them too, usually have to wait til June for those (like clockwork) and they usually come about 3am. Unfortunately they tend to cause alot of damage in our neck of the woods. (lotta trees) But yeah they are photogenic along the leading edge. I was thinking that this morning. Wishing I was in Shawnee or further south to see the shelf cloud moving in. It had to be very impressive this morning.

Very cool video, was that this morning?

edit

[venture]

Video is from the May 27th Derecho which I remember quite well. I'm with you, would love to have seen the leading edge of the complex this morning when it got ramped up.

On the Panhandle storms...they've started their merging into a complex, so the Red River area will need to start getting ready for a windy night.

[Thunder]

Venture, THAT WAS SO KOOL!!!

[westsidesooner]

Flooding could become pretty severe down south as well. Over 9 inches of rain today in parts of s.c. Ok.

[Thunder]

Flooding in central part of the state is possible. Creek, natural and manmade, in a neighborhood where mom is at is very swollen and rushing.

Extra care driving at night is important, some roads have decline/hill/steep that some portions can have water buildup. Driving too fast can result in loss of control.

Storms out west in the TX panhandle is moving into the state. Expect rain for the metro overnight throughout the morning hours.

The front will move back up and somewhat stall thru half the state. There is a slight risk, including the metro area Thursday into Friday.

[venture]

Severe Weather update...

Severe Thunderstorm watch is up until 3AM for SW and South Central OK. There is a slight potential this could be expanded northward, but it is way too early to see if th convection can maintain intensity as it builds north.



Bow Echo MCS is moving through Western North Texas right now. Widespread winds up to 65-70mph looks likely with this line. Some large hail looks like it may be embedded, but I wouldn't be shocked if it is just extremely heavy rain. Tail end of the bow has a history of tornadoes through the evening and this part will stay well south of the Red River. Will need to watch the comma head of the bow for any enhanced areas of rotation that could cause quick spin ups as well as gustnadoes along the leading edge of the bow.

Looks like one hail storm moving into Harmon County here in a bit. Elsewhere scattered storms, some embedded hail storms, cover the southern parts of the state. This activity is moving mainly east with a slight northward component. While the individual cells are going this way, the activity is actually increasing to the north and will as the front and warm unstable air moves back north.

Right now OKC metro should expect widely scattered storms later tonight and through tomorrow. Some hail storms will be embedded and any storms that do get severe could cause some damaging winds. Don't see a chance for any major MCS activity tonight that would impact the metro. Storms that would have had a chance to organize into a complex in the northern Panhandle have weakened to just an area of showers and some lightning that is over parts of western Oklahoma.