DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF N CNTRL AND
NERN TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK AND AR...
AMENDED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT RISK OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS AND
AR
...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL EJECT NEWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONTINUES SEWD...REACHING THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NRN PORTION OF TRAILING
FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND MID ATLANTIC...WHILE
SRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE GULF COASTAL
REGION. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY ADVANCE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH
TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LEE
CYCLOGENESIS.
...SRN PLAINS AND AR...
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AHEAD
OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN NWD ADVECTION OF
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
EML PLUME. MUCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF
THIS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED...BUT WARM ADVECTION AND
LIFT ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ELEVATED STORMS FROM NERN TX INTO OK AND AR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM N CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL OK IF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN
BREACH THE CAP. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION.
Severe Weather - April 1st
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Thunder
Bookmarks