Anyone Else Tired of Weathermen ?!?!

[venture]

- Mike Morgan's forecast of a "significant icing event" and power outages for Oklahoma City during the 5 p.m. Friday news. I heard no such forecast on the other stations and there was no such warning on the National Weather Service's web site.

I would have to defend Mike Morgan on this. By all indications, the precip was still liquid and surface temps were below freezing. Ice and sleet were reported over a good area. Any icing though would have easily been covered by the Winter Storm Warning headlines and there would be no need to alter those. I would also image NWS Norman took care of the situation through their short term forecast discussions, but I don't believe there are records kept of those to go back and check.

[TaoMaas]

Fair enough. I've been friends with OCMs are various stations, not specifically in the OKC market, that have had issues the other way around. OKC stations I would imagine get more freedom (in the wx departments), but I just go off what I know from talking to people in that portion of the industry.

I don't doubt in the least that it's different in other markets. I also think you're probably right about lack of experience with snow storms being a big factor in why our local guys were off on their predictions.

[oknacreous]

GFS and WRF had a pretty good handle on the dry slot/wrap around areas of the storm. Also, take a look at water vapor imagery - it is amazing how well dry slots show up and this one stuck out like a sore thumb very well. I agree with most of your other points, I'll just side with local meteorologists don't have enough experience in deal with these types of storms so when they bust, they bust hard.

There were some model runs here and there catching on to the significance of the dry slot, but most that I saw had the dry slot doing the typical thing of ejecting north and northeastward with the nasty comma head sloshing back into the OKC area. I've not witnessed many that actually wrap it around all the way to the west and southwest side of the cyclone, except for some hurricanes. I think most forecasters were using the short range ensemble forecast (SREF) suite which is a good practice when forecasting winter storms, and some SREF members were still giving OKC 8" or so until the very end. It should also be noted that the Tulsa area got 6-8" at the same storm-relative location as OKC.

Also, I should say I neglected to mention that the NWS and local media did a great job nailing the truly life-threatening aspect of the event, with 15" plus totals and crippling blizzard conditions over northwest Oklahoma and the Panhandle. A lot of people who might have been stranded knew to stay home.

[OKCisOK4me]

I think the best representation of any news station realizing that the snow storm was not going to be anything special was KOCO's weather blog. It all just stopped at 7:17pm! I tried to e-mail them shortly afterward simply asking about the dry slot but to no avail did I receive a reply, or even a simple explanation telling me or fellow viewers on the blog why nothing was happening..regarding snow, of course.

So much for the live blogging, lol.

[Thunder]

Yeah, the KOCO's blog is a good indication to know things like that. I, too, noticed the abrupt stop to the blog's additions since that time, all night, until the next day. Then, they didn't post as much, so there was the indication that this storm wasn't going to meet our expectation in the metro. Even tho they still advertised the maps with estimated snowfall amounts, they were following everything like they would, except that I think they used the blog to give us the hint that it's a bust.

Weather Blog

That's the direct link to the blog that everyone at KOCO actively take part with. This is a very helpful tool, even all of us can join in on it.

4Warn Storm Team @ KFOR-TV

This blog specifically belongs to Jonathan Condor. He started this, so it is his own personal project. It's not the same as KOCO's, but he does what he can on his own, considering how busy he is.

[blangtang]

I am here to show outrage at channel 4's underestimation of snowfall totals. they had a 10-16 inch blob prediction in NW oklahoma, and it turned out like 20-24 inches! Grrrrr!!!!!

i wish they had used the fancy helis to fly around the blizzard cores and show up to the minute! lol

waiting for the lost ogles to break this down for us....

[oudirtypop]

I think the weather guys are idiots! they scared everybody a week or two ago with threat of tornados, and nothing happened, and then they said the metro was going to get 6-10 inches of snow, and nothing happened....

I mean, i know they cant tell exactly, but why dont the stop the number throwing and if there is going to be a decent chance of severe weather, say just that, dont say to plan for tornados....

Pretty soon they are going to get the population to have cry wolf syndrome...

[kevinpate]

> Pretty soon they are going to get the population to have
> cry wolf syndrome...

I'd say the general populace is long past the potential of "going to get" such a syndrome.
many, perhaps even most, have a full blown does of it.

[Luke]

Did any of them (besides Fox 25's guy) say anything about blowing it? I mean, a lot of things were cancelled... a lot of business was lost... a lot of kids hearts were broken... but most importantly, the fear and drama with which the weathermen seemed to spread the news of this impending "blizzard" was so intense that it caused a lot of unnecessary problems and worry for a lot of folks.

I understand being safe rather than sorry, but at some point the realization that this storm wasn't going to be anywhere near what was predicted should have been AS LOUDLY proclaimed as soon as it was realized. And as it is I'm not sure if any of the big three have yet to say they screwed it up.

Yes, I realize they were reading data from the NWS or whatever but nevertheless, the drama and hype was certainly unnecessary.

And for what its worth, there did seem to be something "off" about Mike Morgan's email. And finally, he's a big boy and can handle a thread regarding his forecast failure.

[rod4soonrs]

You would think they would learn from this, but they won't. Maybe the best part of Mike is he used a sled on the air, telling kids, don't worry about going to soccer games, or tee ball, just get out these and have some fun. LOL

[Thunder]

Did anyone notice there is never a swirling tornado animation on any of the Big 3's 7-Day forecast.

[westsidesooner]

GFS and WRF had a pretty good handle on the dry slot/wrap around areas of the storm. Also, take a look at water vapor imagery - it is amazing how well dry slots show up and this one stuck out like a sore thumb very well.

The WV images clearly showed an area of dry air getting pulled into the storm which made me worry about our chances for a heavy snowfall. And the radar presentations showed the snow eroding on the south side of the storm while it was moving into sw Oklahoma. I won't criticize anyone because I dont have a degree in meteorology but the signs were there that dry air was getting pulled in.

- Mike Morgan's forecast of a "significant icing event" and power outages for Oklahoma City during the 5 p.m. Friday news. I heard no such forecast on the other stations and there was no such warning on the National Weather Service's web site.
I think this has been a great discussion and debate.

If I'm not mistaken his forecast was for the "possibility" of icing and power outages. While significant icing did not occur in the metro it did further north, and it was possible here. Better safe than sorry when it comes to ice. Luckily that didn't happen. And yes, its been a great thread with a lot of emotion. Like it should be.

I think the weather guys are idiots! they scared everybody a week or two ago with threat of tornados, and nothing happened, and then they said the metro was going to get 6-10 inches of snow, and nothing happened....

I'd side with the meteorologist here. The threat of tornadoes was there on the night you mentioned. We had supercell thunderstorms close to the south metro with rotation in them, not strong rotation but enough to worry about if you were in the path. What good would a weatherman be if he only reported what had already happened. Should they wait til a tornado is on the ground to warn people in its path? The snow wasnt far off either, while we didnt get 6-10" in the metro, some areas very close to it did. Remember (and I dont agree with this) some meteorologists consider Kinfisher to be "in" the metro area.

Did any of them (besides Fox 25's guy) say anything about blowing it?

Not that I know of. One channel (I dont recall which, sorry) said that the storm took a "jog" to the north as it passed OKC. I didn't see this on radar or satellite. I did see the dry slot though.....the "jogged" response seemed kinda weak. I dont have all the data they have though so I could be wrong.

Did anyone notice there is never a swirling tornado animation on any of the Big 3's 7-Day forecast.

For Good Reason. I dont know if it is still the case, but I believe it use to be forbidden or even unlawful to "forecast" a tornado. Or at least to show a little tornado on their map over a certain area. Think of the drama that would cause if they showed the forecast on their morning show and there was a tornado on the map over Moore or Lone Grove. Talk about scaring people unnecessarily.
________

Funny thing is if they had stuck to thier original forcasts of a blizzard in the the Northwest (which they did) and 1-3 maybe 2-4 inches in the metro they would have been correct. We got around 2" where I live. Some stations (I wont say which) changed their forecast so many times I lost track. Weathermen have a tough job....some may same thankless, but not me. With this kinda discussion this early in the spring it should be interesting when severe weather season really kicks in. Next event lets all make a forecast, and see how many of us are wrong!!!!

[Steve]

QUOTE: "If I'm not mistaken his forecast was for the "possibility" of icing and power outages. While significant icing did not occur in the metro it did further north, and it was possible here. Better safe than sorry when it comes to ice. Luckily that didn't happen. And yes, its been a great thread with a lot of emotion. Like it should be."

The problem is he was the only forecaster to say there was a possibility (and what I heard was much stronger than "possibility") of significant icing and power outages. Was it really a possibility? We're talking about Mike Morgan's judgment, and yes, I'm asking questions. I asked the tv weather forecasters some questions on my blog pertaining to this that never got answered:

1. Are you the final word on forecasts at your station? Is there anyone in a position to second guess your forecast or call it into question?

2. Do you believe your judgment is better than that of the National Weather Service? If so, why?

3. When you are about to broadcast a forecast that is dramatically different than that of the National Weather Service and other stations (as with Friday’s call for a “significant icing event” and power outages in Oklahoma City), do you put a call out to the National Weather Service to ask why they’re not making the same call?

4. Should television weather forecasters be in contact with the National Weather Service when their forecasts are at odds?

[foodiefan]

Steve. . . hear, hear!!

[Thunder]

Most of the time, I'd say that Mike, Rick, and Gary are working harder than the sleepy dwarves at the NWS. I've witnessed quite too often tornadoes active on the ground and the NWS lags behind to allow Tornado Warning to go thru. Because of this, I believe that Mike, Rick, and Gary should have the power to light up a county to be under a Tornado Warning when NWS is on their potty and ciggy breaks.

Honestly, I don't really care what comes from the NWS. I'll focus and listen to Mike, Rick, and Gary on what they have to say regarding severe weather. If everyone watch closely, you'll notice tornadoes on the ground before the official Tornado Warning sometime.

It's quite funny when Mike says "There needs to be a Tornado Warning for _____ county" cuz he knows that the NWS also monitor all the Big 3's broadcast coverage.

Additionally, I say that the Big 3 have more coverage in term of spotters and chasers, including viewers as well, than whatever the NWS have.

Last I remember that the stations can't post warnings without the confirmation from NWS, so I believe that needs to be changed. We can't afford to wait on the NWS' sleepy dwarves.

If I remember correctly, Mike was the only one to give OKC metro the 4 hours warning of that supercell on May 3rd (at least the earliest/longest warning advance). The NWS didn't really do much. Most of the lives that was saved was because of Mike, Jim (chopper dude), Rick, Gary, and the Big 3's teams.

I do believe that sometimes the judgement from Mike, Rick, and Gary is better than the NWS. As I had stated above, we can't afford to wait on the NWS, especially with storms capable of producing a tornado.

[Steve]

Thunder, that' s an interesting observation. So you're saying that the tv weather forecasters have better judgment than the National Weather Service, or are you saying they have better resources?
And how certain are you of the facts you've cited? Is it just an opinion, or have you surveyed the number of weather spotters each operation has at its disposal? I'm also interested in your judgment concerning what the National Weather Service did or didn't do on May 3.
Certainly the tv stations have the advantage on getting the word out, but that's not the question here. The question is, do the tv folks have better judgment than the NWS? And if so, is there a factual basis to make such a call?

[westsidesooner]

Those are all questions I would like to see answered as well. I've noticed that the forecasts from different meteorologists from the same station have wildly different forecasts. Maybe the situation has changed from one forecast to another (morning to noon to 4-5 or 6pm) but the Inconsistencies tend to confuse viewers, especially if it goes back and forth form one newscast to the next. Who does make the forecasts for each station, who has the final say on what their forecast team is calling for, and do they confer with the NWS. Noone is going to get the forecast right 100% of the time especially in Oklahoma. The meteorologists should be happy that people pay so much attention to what they are saying. In Oklahoma that could mean the difference between life or death. I mentioned before that I believe that they have their viewers best interests and safety in mind and I still feel that way.

Steve, as someone who has always been interested in weather I feel your questions are valid and I would like to know the details too. My weather loving friends all got a link emailed to them of your OKC central post because I thought you brought up some good points. As far as Mr. Morgans forecast....it was just that; his. If someone wanted the "official" NWS forecast they could get it. But I do agree that they should confer with each other to some extent. However, there really wouldn't be much need for qualified tv meteorologists if they just read the NWS forecast form script.

[gmwise]

Gary England, the boy who cried wolf way to many times killed those people, not the storm.
Mike Morgan, is ok but yea he gets the weather woodies too.
And Rick, I said it will, and damnit it better.
I remember a family friend of my grandad said when he owned a tv station they got folks who were "pretty"not smart, just enough to read the teleprompter.
It pretty much says it for the whole of local news.
There's some exceptions, but as far weather not many of them holds a candle to calm informative Aaron Tuttle.
I miss him.
Now if OETA can lure him to do the oklahoma news report, I'll be happier.

[rod4soonrs]

Where is Aaron Tuttle?

[Thunder]

To the best of my knowledge, the Big 3 get their info from the NWS. They translate it all for the rest of us. As they translate, they do alter here and there of what they think is likely or not.

It is like buying a jug of milk. Its the same, but each person may like it or not. The same as when NWS transmit their data to the stations; Mike, Rick, Gary, and all their teams interpret the data along with their own experience, knowledge, and opinion.

I was 14 at the time of May 3rd and I don't think I've heard of the NWS at the time. I can't judge their actions, but I certainly remember words here and there on that day.

I do believe that the Big 3 have better judgement. If the NWS think they're all that, then why don't they form a television crew from their staff and compete. No, they prefer to hide in the background, lay the blame on the Big 3.

I don't think there is really a final say on forecasts and predictions. The weather department is very busy, they have to go thru data after data to translate them into graphics. It is time consuming. It is clear that whoever is presenting the weather info, the general public understands which belongs to whom. Plus, the 7-Day forecast have the person presenting's name at the top.

They do discuss to certain degree, but when it come to a person's own weathercast, the person that presenting the info will have the final say of their own presentation until the next weathercast.

Honestly, if we all look at the two political parties, Democrat and Republican, we get full blown opinions about these parties. I hate/love Democrat. I hate/love Republican. This is what some people on here is trying to ignite, especially Steve over on OKC Central. Everyone got their own opinion, right or wrong, they think whatever they want.

And it's time to get sum sleep! Be back later in few hours before work.

[GWB]

QUOTE: "If I'm not mistaken his forecast was for the "possibility" of icing and power outages. While significant icing did not occur in the metro it did further north, and it was possible here. Better safe than sorry when it comes to ice. Luckily that didn't happen. And yes, its been a great thread with a lot of emotion. Like it should be."

The problem is he was the only forecaster to say there was a possibility (and what I heard was much stronger than "possibility") of significant icing and power outages. Was it really a possibility? We're talking about Mike Morgan's judgment, and yes, I'm asking questions. I asked the tv weather forecasters some questions on my blog pertaining to this that never got answered:

1. Are you the final word on forecasts at your station? Is there anyone in a position to second guess your forecast or call it into question?

2. Do you believe your judgment is better than that of the National Weather Service? If so, why?

3. When you are about to broadcast a forecast that is dramatically different than that of the National Weather Service and other stations (as with Friday’s call for a “significant icing event” and power outages in Oklahoma City), do you put a call out to the National Weather Service to ask why they’re not making the same call?

4. Should television weather forecasters be in contact with the National Weather Service when their forecasts are at odds?

Great questions, Steve. I understand the need for the weather guys to entertain their audience, but when it comes to reporting weather I wish they'd just give us the facts without all of the sensationalism. It's all about ratings I guess. The criticism that Mike got was warranted in my opinion, and I think his response to you was somewhat overly dramatic--kinda like his weather reports sometimes.

[venture]

A lot of things to respond to so I'll try to hit every point.

Before calling the NWS "sleepy dwarves" I would suggest picking up a scanner and turning to frequency 145.410 on severe weather days. The amount of information and traffic you get coming directly from them is great. This is also the first line of communication in getting reports back. Oklahoma is probably one of the most spotter/chaser rich states in the nation. The news networks may have 5-10 chasers each for them, the NWS has over 100 on any given day and that isn't counting those that are part of the Skywarn program.

Tornadoes are a tricky thing. Yes sometimes they drop before a warning is issued, but I will say that there are a lot of media driven "it looks like a tornado" situations where radar presentation is poor and no confirmation is coming from anyone else on the storm. Few weeks back, Channel 9's chasers were still going after a storm reporting on a wall cloud and such and carrying it live and nonstop. This is well after the storm had already gone outflow dominant and there was no risk of a tornado at all.

Does NWS monitor the local new channels? I believe so if I remember correctly. However, I will say that reports that local media is giving on air they are NOT relaying back to NWS most of the time. You'll have them report severe hail, wind damage, and even a tornado (it'll be warned still) but those reports never make it to the NWS and show up on the storm reports list. This has sometimes pointed out that the care of making sure these reports are delivered appropriate really isn't there.

Local stations do their "Heavy Tstorm" routine...which is usually matched up with the NWS's Significant Weather Advisory. May 3rd...if anyone is giving a warning on a tornado 4 hours out, they are a moron. You can't predict how long that thing will last, especially that long. All agencies had provided significant lead time though, well over an hour, for the OKC metro. It was also the first time "Tornado Emergency" appeared in any NWS products to stress the danger of a large tornado moving into a populated area. You can go back and review the time stamps on all the advisories and such, and everything was pretty much hand in hand that day.

As far as the forecasts, going by from what I know and even what Gary himself told my freshman Meteo class at OU - majority of the time their forecast, is the NWS forecast. On any given day, his story, they are mostly spent doing school visits or other public affairs and really don't have a significant time to crunch every model and observation to come up with their own forecast. So they typically have about an hour or so to import the NWS forecast and then design the weather presentation for that next show. However they do tweak it here and there depending on their best guess if they disagree with something, or some other reason.

To GMWise's comment - most stations (not really here in OKC) do pick anyone who can read a prompter good to do the weather. In OKC, there is such a focus on qualifications that you'll find that everyone has either gone to school for it or has years of experience covering weather.

Last point. I'm all for calling out things that don't smell right, but until you actually see what goes on behind the scenes at the NWS - don't judge. Especially when it comes to the Norman office and the amount of activity they have in their forecast area (considering it is over half of the state of Oklahoma and Western North Texas). No one is perfect, but they are definitely not sleeping or having smoke breaks during major events. Plus the NWS doesn't prefer to hide. If you read their forecast discussions they (Norman) are pretty frank about situations and their thinking. Also the fact that we get to have the NWS in the same building as SPC and several other organizations is something that really makes us spoiled.

[jsibelius]

Thunder, that' s an interesting observation. So you're saying that the tv weather forecasters have better judgment than the National Weather Service, or are you saying they have better resources?
And how certain are you of the facts you've cited? Is it just an opinion, or have you surveyed the number of weather spotters each operation has at its disposal? I'm also interested in your judgment concerning what the National Weather Service did or didn't do on May 3.
Certainly the tv stations have the advantage on getting the word out, but that's not the question here. The question is, do the tv folks have better judgment than the NWS? And if so, is there a factual basis to make such a call?

I'll step out and say I think they just have better equipment and more money (discounting research grants). And the National Weather Service doesn't have the Nielsens to contend with so their motivation on when and if to disseminate information comes from a different source. I don't necessarily think the TV people are wrong when their predictions differ from that of the NWS. Many of them went to the same meteorology schools or they've learned what they know from the school of lots of experience. I'd say they have different judgment. And for good reason. And that's why I have a TV AND a NOAA weather radio. And that's why I periodically attend storm spotting classes taught by NWS trainers instead of relying on Weather School to learn what I know. (yes, I'm a weather geek)

Where is Aaron Tuttle?

Hear! Hear! (Haven't heard from him in quite a while.)

[OKCDrummer77]

Where is Aaron Tuttle?

He's with the FAA now in their weather department. He actually joined OKCTalk about a year ago and told us about it. Sounds like a good gig he's got now.

[jsibelius]

He's with the FAA now in their weather department. He actually joined OKCTalk about a year ago and told us about it. Sounds like a good gig he's got now.

I kinda thought he meant where is he on this board and why hasn't he weighed in on this topic? (Maybe he's wisely keeping his mouth shut?)