Severe Weather Risk - 3/23/2009 (Monday)

[venture]

Outflow would undercut the rotation, so it'll likely never happen unless it was an extremely complex storm. I've seen storms that would be outflow dominant on one end, but have enough inflow on a far southern tip to still make it happen. It doesn't last long there. Here is an image from about 10 minutes ago I outlined where you have to look at the more detailed image with all the clutter to see the outflow.

[Thunder]

The dryline was pushed further back, so expect more storms to continue overnight.

Now, we got more storms later thru the week.

SNOW/ICE/FREEZE THIS WEEKEND?!

[Nermel]

Oh no Mister Bill, it's headed for the Cone of Silence!

[venture]

Probably last update for tonight and we can call this one good.

Cold front is moving through the state, should be in the OKC area around 3AM...ish. At 1:22AM it extends from Manchester to Jet to Fairview to Putnam to Elk City to Mangum to east of Hollis. Ahead of the front thunderstorms continue to develop as well as other ongoing precip that developed earlier. Back edge of the storms and precip is from Hobart to Cordell to Weatherford to Greenfield to Hennessey to Tonkawa to Newkirk. Storms contain some hail, extremely heavy rain, and wind is still up there - most isn't convective in nature though.

Outlook for the rest of the night looks like marginally severe and more rain. Nothing terrible for us.

[Jon27]

Venture, do you think this is going to be an active storm season? Seems like when we don't have much of a winter, this happens. My main concern is tornadoes.

[rod4soonrs]

If Nam and Gfs are correct, we could get a decent amount of snow here in the metro Friday and Saturday. Classic heavy snow track if it stays on current projection.

[Thunder]

Question is...will it all stick? I doubt it. Ground been too warm lately.

[rod4soonrs]

if it hits like it looks like it will, there will be lots of it, and it won't have time to melt, the low will be close by, and pulling in colder air, keeping temps around freezing. Wind will make drifts too. Keep an eye on it if traveling.