Severe Weather Risk - 3/9/2009

[OKCisOK4me]

The small one on Reno in MWC. I'm the deaf dude.

I don't go to that one.

[venture]

Instability has peaked out it seems. Cell by Childress is around Cordell right now, but nothing to it. It try to establish it self but then got sheared apart and is just a few clouds blowing through now.

Looking at another attempt to build up in the northwest, but it is struggling a bit. We are still outside the time frame though for when I expected things to go. So time to be patient.

[Bobby821]

Hopefully we willget some good severe weather today tonight and this entire storm season comming up. Hopefully it will not be a bust like the past few have been, Bring it on !!!!!

[Thunder]

KFOR was showing that southwestern part is the main watch area for storms to fire up.

They are saying 6pm thru 10pm for OKC, so if any is going to reach OKC by 6pm then they must be poppin up by now. So far, still quiet.

[Nermel]

This is what I get for watching West Wing re-runs right now. LOL

Do what I do, just have the listserv from the SIU weather processor feed to a gmail account, setup filters. Then setup a 2nd gmail account, and further tweak the filters then you can have watches and MD's that affect Oklahoma sent to your cell phone as a text message.

These cells could move very fast if/when they form today.

[venture]

Nermel, I've had that going for like 10 years already. : )

Two areas of interest right now. The one cell up by Newkirk moving into Osage county is something, but its moving away. Back to the west, indications are that the dryline is about to start going up. I would focus most attention to that area in the next hour.

Metro impact definitely will be after 7pm...probably 8-10pm. General rule of thumb, though not always the case, take the time the watch expires and look at the eastern edge of it. That is a pretty good guide on where they expect storms to be at expiration.

[Nermel]

Venture: Do you use GR2Analyst? I'm contemplating breaking down and paying for it.

Incidentally, I love viewing this stuff in google earth... Couple of good urls:

Realtime WDSSII Weather Data (KML) <-- good NWS data

Spotter Network <- live spotter locations, etc

[venture]

Yes I do. Got it a couple years ago for chasing and absolutely love it. I get a kick out of the fact that KWTV uses it now. : ) Plus the support and openness of Mike (the developer) is like no other software product I use.

Update..development is sustained now in SW Oklahoma in southern Harmon, W Jackson, and Northern Hardeman (TX) Counties. Other sporadic development in NW Oklahoma - but nothing to write about yet.

[venture]

Rapid development now under way in Harmon/Jackson Counties moving NE around 25 mph. Additional development further SW into Texas also moving NE.

[venture]

Something unrelated that I missed. If only they had rain coming...probably will go just east of them.

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS BEING TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF HARPER
COUNTY EMERGNCY MANAGEMENT.

AT 5:10 PM... A LARGE WILDFIRE WAS LOCATED THREE-QUARTERS OF A MILE
WEST OF THE TOWN OF LAVERNE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TOWN OF
LAVERNE. PERSONS IN LAVERNE ARE REQUESTED TO EVACUATE NORTH ALONG
HIGHWAY 283 OR EAST ALONG HIGHWAY 149 TOWARD BUFFALO. PERSONS ARE
ASKED TO GO TO THE FAIRGROUNDS IN BUFFALO.

[venture]

Watching the SW OK storms, some lightning with them now. Looking at them in a 3D view, these things are really getting blown over a lot. We'll see what this means later on, should be in a more favorable atmosphere for tornadoes east of US 281.

Two other cells, Custer County near Custer City and Woodward County SE of Woodward...are trying to bust through and are slowly getting better.

[venture]

First opportunity for severe weather will be sell in Hardeman County, TX right now - just across the river. Currently show to have the most intense core with some small hail developing - up to 0.51" right now (though the estimate may be overdone). It should move NE just south of Altus in the next 30-45 min.

[venture]

New MCD concerning ongoing activity in SW.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 52...

VALID 092311Z - 100015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 52 CONTINUES.

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF REGION.
BUT...INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR THE
INITIATION OF STORMS IN THE CHILDRESS/ALTUS AREA. THIS IS JUST EAST
OF THE SURFACE DRY LINE...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS AROUND 1000
J/KG. FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INTENSIFY WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED 50-60 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELD. THIS WILL TEND TO ADVECT
STORMS INTO AREAS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS DO NOT APPEAR AS LARGE AS FARTHER
NORTH...ALONG THE WARM FRONT...THEY APPEAR SIZABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
A RIGHTWARD TURN OF STRONGER CELLS INTO THE OKLAHOMA CITY
AREA...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COMMENCES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...IN ADDITION
TO THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 03/09/2009


ATTN...WFO...OUN...

[venture]

Well I was off. LOL

643 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN WOODS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 643 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CAPRON TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DACOMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WINDS OF 65 MPH ARE
LIKELY.

[Nermel]

Is the Gary England Drinking Game being activated?

http://www.okctalk.com/okc-undergrou...king-game.html

[venture]

LOL. Gotta love that.

Next warning out.

655 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 655 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF MOUNTAIN PARK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WINDS OF
65 MPH ARE LIKELY.

[venture]

One of the many live storm chaser feeds - few are on the storms in SW OK.

http://tornadovideos.net/full-screen-chaser-video.php

[venture]

Current down trend in activity as it seems shear is tearing it all apart. There is some redevelopment on the back side that could over take it. We'll just have to sit tight and watch. Better dynamics are to the east a bit more - so we'll see.

[rod4soonrs]

looks like it may turn to a squall line

[Bobby821]

Looks like OKC got jipped out of the severe weather again It figures how it always goes.

[venture]

Mesoscale discussion 0221
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0801 pm cdt mon mar 09 2009

areas affected...parts of wrn/cntrl ok

concerning...tornado watch 52...

Valid 100101z - 100200z

the severe weather threat for tornado watch 52 continues.

Discrete boundary layer based...or near boundary layer based...
Storms continue to develop northeastward...just to the west of the
oklahoma city metro area. Surface temperatures have begun to slowly
fall...but an increase in low-level moisture is ongoing... Mostly
within an elevated warm advection regime along/west of a low-level
jet axis which has begun to strengthen across eastern oklahoma into
the missouri/kansas border area. As these processes continue into
the 03-04z time frame...storms may continue to increase within a
low-level confluence zone to the west of the low- level jet
axis...from west central oklahoma into south central/ southeast
kansas. But...with the exception of perhaps along the immediate
vicinity of the warm frontal zone across southern kansas...the risk
for tornadoes may diminish. Locally damaging wind gusts will remain
a possibility...however. Training cells may also begin to yield
some heavy rain totals.

..kerr.. 03/10/2009

[venture]

Unless things pick up, this will be my last update tonight on this.



0925 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL OK INTO SE KS AND SWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 52...

VALID 100225Z - 100330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 52 CONTINUES.

AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BEFORE 03Z.

MID/UPPER FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST NORTHEAST OF
A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MIGRATING EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS/ OKLAHOMA
BORDER THROUGH 03-06Z. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE A LINGERING SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS MAY
PERSIST ALONG A PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE JUST WEST OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS.

ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING
ABOVE A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER...THE WARM SECTOR NEAR SURFACE AIR
MASS STILL SEEMS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL. WITH
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGING AS SOUTHERLY 850 MB
LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 40-50 KTS...THE RISK OF A
TORNADIC SUPERCELL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR
THIS STILL SEEMS TO EXIST NEAR THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
BUT...AT LEAST A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

..KERR.. 03/10/2009

[braums manager]

i love severe weather

[Thunder]

Beside some heavy rain and frequent lightning, it doesn't seem like it was that bad.

Just a typical thunderstorm. lol

[venture]

Pretty much what sums up today is that there was way too much shear (too much of a good thing) that ripped these storms apart before they could become established. Most we got were some hail and wind reports, nothing terrible for Oklahoma. Still way early yet though in the season.