HousingWire.com - Malls, the Future of Housing?
By LISA SELIN DAVIS
December 29, 2008
The mall as we know it today is a mistake.
The lonely box of concrete plopped in the suburban diaspora, outdated and, in many cases, dying, isn’t quite what Victor Gruen, the Austrian-born Holocaust survivor largely credited with inventing it, envisioned. Instead, the regional enclosed shopping mall was supposed to be a community center—a little bit of downtown and a car-free haven that would include day care facilities, offices, and, perhaps most importantly, residential living components a stone’s throw from the building; the mall was always supposed to have housing nearby.
Perhaps today Gruen would finally be satisfied, because in its newest incarnation, the mall has finally become not just a place to shop, but to live. The mortgage meltdown, shifting demographics and a growing antipathy toward suburban sprawl have caused developers to see malls not as retail dinosaurs but as giant land banks, where going vertical can appease environmentalists, potential buyers and stockholders alike.
It’s happening slowly, but it’s happening all over America, and industry experts expect the trend to grow. If inner cities are starting to see condo projects go rental or remain unsold, and some new suburban subdivisions are settling into modern ghost towns as the foreclosure crisis deepens, the one bright spot in the housing market might just be here: at the mall.
“This is not just a fad,” says Anita Kramer, senior director for retail development at the Urban Land Institute. “This is the wave of the future.”
More than 2, 000 malls currently stand in America. Back in 2001, when PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Congress for the New Urbanism conducted a nationwide survey of shopping malls, 19 percent of them could be classified as “greyfields”—so called for acres of undeveloped parking lots and piles of underutilized concrete— or vulnerable to becoming them; some of us know these spaces as dead malls.
Despite the obsessive chronicling of such structures on Web sites like Dead Malls (
deadmalls DOT com), we still don’t know their exact number, but we do know this: some of those greyfields are potential goldmines, and the industry knows it. “There are more renovation/expansions than new malls being built now,” says Malachy Kavanagh, vice president of communications for the International Council of Shopping Centers, a trade group for mall makers.
Starting with a destination
Somewhere in the last two decades, enclosed shopping malls started falling out of favor. Department stores were consolidating, making anchor tenants scarcer, and suburban sprawl was becoming the scourge of the environmental world, blamed for traffic, pollution and a kind of suburban malaise. Malls needed to be more than just places to shop, if they were going to survive. They needed to become destinations, dressed up for a new century, with all the architectural and commercial diversity of real towns.
We saw such creations in places like Canada’s West Edmonton Mall, which opened in 1982 and includes an ice-skating rink and an indoor bungee jump. Minnesota’s The Mall of America includes three roller coasters and a hotel. But those malls were intended to be centers of tourism, not models for your standard regional mall.
So a new style of mall has made its way to the market in the last decade or so, known as the “lifestyle center,” a smaller, more upscale grouping of stores hovering around what looks like an actual city street, with sit-down restaurants and theaters, maybe even park benches and streetlights—very much like old-fashioned downtowns, and built near residential areas. Since 2005, only three enclosed shopping malls have been built, and only one, in East Rutherford, New Jersey, is on the docket for 2009. Yet thirty open-air lifestyle centers have risen. Many of these are redeveloped properties—old, enclosed malls either torn down or added to, both for financial and environmental reasons. After all, there just aren’t that many 100,000-plus acres of virgin land in good locations to go around anymore.
But adding housing to an enclosed mall—as well as to these re-imagined, mixed-use facilities—is still a relatively novel concept, because malls were originally built far from residential areas, near highway interchanges. There, they’d be accessible from many different suburban communities, in their own commercial-only zones.
“Many of the shopping centers built in last 25 years were built on low cost land at the fringe,” says the Urban Land Institute’s Michael Beyard, senior fellow for retail and entertainment development. “Now, land is quite expensive, and many of these malls are no longer at the fringe.”
Thanks to encroaching residential and commercial development, many of those malls are even now in prime locations, near major roads, housing subdivisions and sometimes even public transit. Suddenly, location, location, location applies to the mall as much as it traditionally has to residential real estate.
Deconstructing the mall, literally
The most common way for a mall to take advantage of its newly desirable locale and become residential is to “de-mall,” in the language of the industry: raze the existing structure and start anew as a mixed-use mall.
That’s what happened at Belmar, in Lakewood, Colorado, in 2003. On the site of an ailing 1.4 million square-foot mall known as Villa Italia on the outskirts of Denver, developers created a 106-acre lifestyle center with various kinds of housing attached. There are 1,300 rental apartments, 200 condos and single-family home units, and 760,000 square feet of office space hovering around them. Currently they have around 60 condominiums in active listings (they have been continually adding housing since units were first placed on the market), ranging from the mid-$200,000s to over $1 million.
According to an article earlier this year in The Atlantic, Belmar’s housing “commands a 60 percent premium per square foot over the single-family homes in the neighborhoods around it.”
“There’s a strong desire for this type of project,” says Belmar’s director of marketing, Stephanie Jackson. “It’s urban, but it feels like the country. There’s a real sense of synergy here.”
The project has been lauded by industry groups and held up as a model for how to turn old malls into vibrant, complete neighborhoods. This doesn’t mean Belmar is immune, however, from the unraveling of the economy by any means. Jackson says sales have been healthy, but like just about everywhere else in the American housing market, they’re starting to feel the pinch. “They’re doing okay,” she says. “There’s been some slow down in traffic.”
General Growth, the second largest mall owner, with over 200 holdings, has undertaken similar projects lately, re-evaluating the health and potential of some of their older, ailing properties and deciding that ascribing many of the principles of New Urbanism—walkability, a mix of uses, a variety of housing types—can bring them back to life. In Holladay, Utah, for instance, the old Cottonwood Mall had fallen on hard times, largely edged out by competition from a newer, flashier mall named Fashion Place in nearby Salt Lake City.
“[Cottonwood] really is the community center of that town, but it was dated and not as popular in recent years,” says Aaron Bartels, senior director of development for another General Growth project. Earlier this year, they razed every inch of Cottonwood but the Macy’s to create “an inviting residential community within a convenient neighborhood setting. The 57-acre plan aligns the streets and a central square with the vistas of the mountains to the east, creating symmetry with the natural beauty of Mount Olympus and the Wasatch Front,” reads a project description.
In addition to a new mall, the project includes condos, townhouses, cottages and single-family homes, each of them above or adjacent to the shopping component. The project is expected to reopen in 2011.
Rethinking community
If razing and rebuilding seems a little less that environmentally friendly, there’s another model of life at the mall. At General Growth’s suburban Boston property, Natick Mall, they chose to create what the Congress for New Urbanism calls Mall-plus: an adaptive reuse project that takes a traditional enclosed shopping center and adds new components right inside it.
Natick Mall, in an area known as MetroWest, was built in 1966, and got a massive overhaul in 1994. But that makeover occurred while enclosed malls were still in favor, and didn’t bring it up to 21st century standards. So last year, after acquiring an adjacent parcel of land once occupied by a Wonder Bread factory, General Growth decided to give the mall a $370 million makeover. Along with the addition of anchor stores like Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom that helped reinvent the mall as a luxury destination called the Natick Collection, they grafted 12 stories of condominiums onto the side of the building, created a 1.2-acre park with wandering, leafy paths on the mall’s roof, and added a private club with features like a piano lounge and screening room.
“We’ve made it more of a community asset than a retail asset,” says Bartels. The condominiums, called Nouvelle at Natick, have their own private entrances into the mall, and they’ve attracted empty nesters and young couples, mall lovers and mall-neutral buyers alike.
Sales of the 215 condos, ranging from $425,000 to $1.7 million and 800 square-feet to more than 2,000 square-feet, began in Sept. 2007. So far, says Bartels, 40 have closed, which may not seem like a home run compared to the speed with which some city condo projects sold during the height of the building boom, but Bartels seems pleased. They’re confident about the project due to its location and price point.
“We’re priced 50 percent below a comparable product in Boston, about $600 a square foot,” says Bartels. “In MetroWest, we’re probably 50 percent above a comparable property, and there’s nothing else around here with that level of amenities.”
Nouvelle at Natick is unique in many ways, and not just because it’s the first case of an enclosed shopping mall getting condos directly inside it. Most such condominium projects, offering goodies like swimming pools and wine rooms, are found in the inner city, but this project sits in an older, inner ring suburb (as opposed to new mixed-use mall properties like Time Warner Center, in New York City, where people have long been used to residing above retail). This is urban life for folks who prefer the suburbs, which, according to the U.S. Census, is the majority of us: some 47 percent live in suburbs, and 40 million of the 58 million housing units there are detached.
Some call this debut creature the new suburbia or “metroburbia,” a vertical suburbia that can appease the desire for the best parts of both urban and suburban life. “For the last hundred years that kind of lifestyle”—walkable, dense—“was only available in dense urban environments,” says Bartels. “A lot of people are hoping to get out of the cul-de-sac and get into more integrated lifestyle.”
The mall, says urbanist Joel Kotkin, presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University, “is the logical place to do this. You build a town center where there wasn’t one.”
‘You’d almost never know you’re in the mall’
Such a new town center model can be seen at Coconut Point, in Estero, Florida, where the old residential-above-retain model so common in older urban centers is laid out in their newfangled “city streets.” Rows of condos stand above stores like Bebe and the Apple store, with freestanding models surrounding them.
“It’s almost like living in the city, where you’re above a storefront,” says Diane Ivey, director of mall marketing. “You’d almost never know that you’re in the mall.” Yet the homes hover both above and around 1.2 million square feet of retail space and 32,000 square feet of office condominiums. Some 200 out of 270 units have been sold since they went on the market in 2005. Clearly, though, not all who buy at Coconut Point crave the fully urban experience. As Ivey points out, “The first homes that were bought were not on the main street.”
Coconut Point is the offspring of Simon Property Group, the world’s largest owner of malls, with 323 holdings. They’ve been slow to add residential to the mix, as hopeful as they are for the model; only about six of their new open-air centers have residential, and none of their enclosed shopping centers have tried General Growth’s tack, adding condominiums to the mix.
In addition to Coconut Point, Simon’s life-at-the-mall properties include Firewheel Town Center, outside Dallas; South Park, in Charlotte, N.C., and The Domain in Austin, Texas, with 390 rental units ranging from $1,025 to $2,300, stacked above retail. It has a wine bar, a couple of steakhouses, a spa and a fancy chocolate shop, among many other stores, with more to come as they finish the next phase. Open for less than two years, the property is 95 percent rented.
Though they would not release demographic information about the residents, they did point out this: The Domain is less than 10 miles from the University of Texas, Austin; chances are, it’s reaching a very different market than the Natick Collection or Coconut Point. This actually bodes well for the future of the model. Even the luxury real estate sector has been taking a hit as of late. To reinvent the mall as a series of domiciles, many styles, sizes and price points of housing must be available there.
Changing perceptions of home
We know that adding residential is the logical next step for the mall, and that there’s a desire for it on the market. A study by Jonathan Levine of the University of Michigan and Lawrence Frank of the University of British Columbia of suburban Atlanta and Boston residents revealed that at least a third of them would rather have mixed-use and walkable neighborhoods than big houses on large lots—as long as they were affordable—and another third were at least open to such a shift in lifestyle. Many want to live like they’re in a city—emotionally, if not geographically.
We have only a few data to go by about the fiscal health of these projects. At Reston Town Center, for instance, a D.C.-suburb lifestyle center that opened in 1990, Reston’s products—apartments, condominiums, and office and retail spaces—commanded as much as 50 percent more rent than nearby condos, malls or office parks, according to a 2006 study by the Brookings Institution. “The anecdotal information is that they are very successful, they are able to get higher rents on all sides, there’s a premium for living and doing business in these establishments,” says Urban Land Institute’s Kramer. And mixed use is clearly a smarter direction for developers now; if one sector takes a serious hit, chances are, the health of the others will help a mixed-use development rebound; it’s time to spread the risk around.
Whether it will revive ailing malls and help realize the vision Victor Gruen presented some 50 years ago remains to be seen. Malls have seen their vacancies rise perilously in the last few months. The sample of residential experiments is just too small to know if the trend will prove profitable in the long run, and help insulate the mall from the growing financial crisis. Clearly, though, suburbia is going to need some kind of injection to keep it relevant and repair the mortgage meltdown trauma. Many suburban areas have suffered more than their urban counterparts in recent months. Cleveland, Minneapolis and Washington, D.C., for example, saw higher rates of foreclosure in suburbs versus the inner city.
Mall makers are moving in this direction, but very slowly, and slower now that our economy is shaky. Mall makers don’t blame it on the malls themselves—it’s the economy. “That’s not a reflection on the product type,” says General Growth’s Bartels. “That’s a reflection on the mortgage market.”
Editor’s note: Lisa Selin Davis writes for a variety of publications about real estate—though she doesn’t own any yet—and is managing editor of Brownstoner.com. She lives in Brooklyn, NY.
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