boom and bust

[NewPlains]

Hi everyone, I'm new to the site, but not to OKC. I'm a college student at UCO and I love OKC without reservation.

I'm incredibly impressed by all of the great things we've accomplished as a city, and I'm also incredibly impressed by the civic spirit here (which was almost absent just 15 years ago). Anyway, having said that, I wanted to bring up something that some of us would probably rather not think about, which is the boom and bust cycles that have defined our history as a city. As much as we and our leaders have done to make this a better place over the past decade, I think that some of our current success may be due to situations outside our control; oil prices are up, the weak dollar has been good for industry and agriculture, and OKC and Oklahoma in general didn't experience the incredible growth and incredible decline of the tech boom in the same catostrophic way that some cities did. Simply put, how much can we take credit for, and how much is luck?

I don't think that we're looking at a bust anytime soon, and I think we've done a good job of capitalizing on our success, but it's still something to think about.

Colin

[Nuclear_2525]

I still don't think OK , OKC or Tulsa has seen the "boom" yet. So if the boom is supposed to come before the bust, then we have a while before OK busts again.

[mranderson]

I still don't think OK , OKC or Tulsa has seen the "boom" yet. So if the boom is supposed to come before the bust, then we have a while before OK busts again.

Oklahoma CIty will not see a "boom" until city leaders start seeking companies that offer realistic salaries and not slave labor wages. Most people want to feed their families and buy a nice home. Most of the jobs that have entered the market do not have those salaries.

[JOHNINSOKC]

I think it's just a matter of time before we see the type of boom like we experienced here in the early 1980's. If we can land a major employer or two in the next couple of years, the boom will really be here and it will be sustainable this time around. Hopefully, the America West hub will come to fruition. I just read a report that AW is discussing a merger with US Airways. I think that would bode well for OKC getting a huge hub since AW concentrates primarily on the West and US Airways covers the Eastern US. There's no reason why OKC can't eventually become the next Dallas. What's stopping this city from reaching for the sky??

[mranderson]

I think it's just a matter of time before we see the type of boom like we experienced here in the early 1980's. If we can land a major employer or two in the next couple of years, the boom will really be here and it will be sustainable this time around. Hopefully, the America West hub will come to fruition. I just read a report that AW is discussing a merger with US Airways. I think that would bode well for OKC getting a huge hub since AW concentrates primarily on the West and US Airways covers the Eastern US. There's no reason why OKC can't eventually become the next Dallas. What's stopping this city from reaching for the sky??

The answer is simple. An airport trust that could care less combined with a lot of negitivity from citizens who wear blinders.

[NewPlains]

I think it's probably wishful thinking to think that being a hub for a small airline like America West would lead to anything like the boom or the early 80s, but I don't think booms are a good thing anyway...sudden unplanned growth creates as many problems as it solves (look at Las Vegas, the boom city of the moment-acres of tacky tract housing and an overwhelmed municipal government aren't nessicarily reasons to get up and cheer), and tends to be fleeting. Obviously hub status would be good for the city, but America West is no American Airlines and WRW is no DFW...and there's nothing wrong with that, since AA seems to be perpetually in and out of financial trouble and I personally can't stand Dallas.

Incidentally, I was at the airport on monday, and they've done a really nice job on the new terminal. The ticketing area was finally open and it's starting to come together pretty nicely. Certainly an improvement over the bus station feel of the old terminal.

I suppose I was too quick to use the words boom and bust, since I have no memories of the boom and I was in high school by the time that we started to recover from the bust.

[mranderson]

I think it's probably wishful thinking to think that being a hub for a small airline like America West would lead to anything like the boom or the early 80s, but I don't think booms are a good thing anyway...sudden unplanned growth creates as many problems as it solves (look at Las Vegas, the boom city of the moment-acres of tacky tract housing and an overwhelmed municipal government aren't nessicarily reasons to get up and cheer), and tends to be fleeting. Obviously hub status would be good for the city, but America West is no American Airlines and WRW is no DFW...and there's nothing wrong with that, since AA seems to be perpetually in and out of financial trouble and I personally can't stand Dallas.

Incidentally, I was at the airport on monday, and they've done a really nice job on the new terminal. The ticketing area was finally open and it's starting to come together pretty nicely. Certainly an improvement over the bus station feel of the old terminal.

I suppose I was too quick to use the words boom and bust, since I have no memories of the boom and I was in high school by the time that we started to recover from the bust.

America West is no small airline. It is one of the largest airlines in the country. Nearly any airline that establishes a hub in Oklahoma City CAN lead to a boom. Was the 80's boom what has been described? No. It was two industry. Oil and banking. And that is all. The oil jobs left because of deregulation, and the banking jobs left because they over extended their loan capacities.

The potential from an airline is obvious. This city has almost 1.5 million people. Will Rogers market covers nearly half, if not more of the population of the entire state. Jobs are not plentiful in part due to the lack of air service out of Will Rogers. America West, if they hub here, will have in the neighborhood of 300 flights. That would be flights to every major city in this nation with possbibly a small number of exceptions. With this many cities served non stop out of Will Rogers, one of the major hurtles to attract business will be solved. Just about the only one left will be the income tax. It is quite high. Then getting the powers that be to attract businesses that mean living wage jobs.

You are correct. America West IS no American Airlines... Thank God! I can not STAND American Airlines.

[Pete]

Since the last boom in the late 70's and early 80's and the susequent bust, OKC's economy has become far less dependent on the oil & gas business.

People may point to Kerr McGee, Devon and Chesapeake, but there were many, many more just 20 years ago. I worked downtown at this time and had a lot of friends in the oil biz... It was a wild, free-wheeling and free-spending environment similar to the Silicon Valley about 4-5 years ago.

Also, the related Penn Square Bank collapse and the other dominos that fell as a result was a huge contributing factor that no longer exists.


OKC will benefit more than most cities from a surge in oil prices, but I suspect the business cycles from here on in will more closely follow the national trends.

[floater]

Instead of riding booms, we've wisely diversified our economy. We didn't experience such a shock after the tech and communications fallout of the early 2000s as a result.

I think it's great our energy companies are doing so well, but I wish we had some other strong driver industries besides oil and gas. Aircraft maintanence, logistics, customer service, and biotech are simmering, but we need more HQs of these industries for them to be real complements to the energy sector.

Still, our diversification has buffered us to the point where a loss of one of the larger employers (Tinker is a unique case) will not have the effect as large as the oil bust had. Those let go may have lower salaries with their newer jobs, but they will not be unemployed. Besides finding work with like companies, a way for a city to recover is for the employees left behind to form new companies using the skills they have. It's not easy, but it has been done in the past and can be done in OKC. Developing an entrepreneurial spirit and getting those college degrees makes it easier; once you have those two, you can adapt to whatever the economy throws at you.

[NewPlains]

I think the lack of a diversified economy is part of why Tulsa is struggling right now; if ever there was a one industry town, it's Tulsa (even moreso than OKC).

At least we have one as of yet unmentioned major employer that's certain not to leave- the state government...(of course, I'm sure that's what Guthrie thought too.)

[floater]

At least we have one as of yet unmentioned major employer that's certain not to leave- the state government...(of course, I'm sure that's what Guthrie thought too.)

Lol . Lower-paying, but safer.

[floater]

I think Tulsa had a fairly diverse economy, with energy, telecom, banking and the rest. Their trouble is their attachment to hot sectors sets them up for a fall. But I firmly believe Tulsans can focus their energies on other industries. The talent of Bartlesvillians has kept them from mourning the loss of Phillips for too long and pushed the city toward a tourism industry.

[Pete]

Actually, I hate to say it but if something happened to Tinker OKC would be in a world of hurt.

Tinker employs 26,000 while the American Maintenace facility in Tulsa only employs about 8,000.

[mranderson]

I remember when I was a teenager, Oklahoma as a state had a VERY booming oil industry and agriculture industry. My dad always said during that time, the oil and ag markets would not last. He added Oklahoma needed to diversify and pursue other areas like heavy industry. My peers literally laughed at me when I told them that, and that I agreed with dad.

Well, it is now 2005. We have gone through a very rough time more than once since that day back in 1968. Had these people listened to us, Oklahoma would be one heck of a hot bed of activity and be a center of commerce. Who knows. Maybe several companies would be headquartered here and we would not be complaining that the airport trust will not do more to improve Will Rogers. Why? We would have the hub that was assigned to Dallas, and probably one or more that was not. We would have the major league sports franchises these naysayers incorrectly say we can not support. Plus we would be a haven of tourists having seen our major theme parks and other high level attractions. Not because of Murrah, although it may have still happened.

But, nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! These people said oil and ag would be here "forever."

Look who has the last laugh now.

[floater]

Yeah, Malibu, Tinker is unique as a large employer. It employs a huge workforce, and losing it would be a real setback to the city. But you know, it won't be the death of the city either, OKC may actually benefit from it. This is another thread altogether.

But mranderson's right -- you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket.

[Patrick]

Actually, I hate to say it but if something happened to Tinker OKC would be in a world of hurt.

Tinker employs 26,000 while the American Maintenace facility in Tulsa only employs about 8,000.

I honestly don't think we have to worry about losing Tinker. I do, however, think it's good to keep alert, as that allows us to continually improve Tinker to keep us from ever being considered for closure. The low cost of operation and low cost of living keep Tinker here, in addition to the quality work force, first class facilities, and centrality.

[Patrick]

Anyways, let me comment on te topic here. I don't feel we're in a boom or bust period, although we're probably on the boom side of the fence. What do we attribute that to? Well, a variety of factors. Our diversified economy, as has already been mentioned. Also, one must not forget MAPS. Did MAPS itself create a mini-boom? Well, no, but it improved our city's self-esteem which has allowed us to go out there and compete with the big dogs once again. Just look back to the pessmism that was so rampant back in the days prior to MAPS.

[floater]

I totally agree, Patrick. MAPS gave us the confidence to be more aggressive about economic development. We can point to things happening all the time, which we couldn't a decade ago. When the "It's a Wonderful Life" campaign came out, and all we could about was having plenty of water, well, that's not much of charmer.

[okcpulse]

Oklahoma City will boom in 2009. I don't know how or what will happen, but something will happen that year that will result in rapid population growth and income. And no, I'm not psychic. Just a serious gut feeling.

[Sooner&RiceGrad]

Oklahoma CIty will not see a "boom" until city leaders start seeking companies that offer realistic salaries and not slave labor wages. Most people want to feed their families and buy a nice home. Most of the jobs that have entered the market do not have those salaries.

Again I feel that I must disagree. Anyone wishing for a nationally average salary in Oklahoma would be insane. I make much less than the national average for my occupation, am I complaining?

Oklahoma has a much lower cost of living. If you don't get it, just don't complain about the effects of it. If we got paid higher salaries, we would be payinf higher prices for real estate. In fact, out the nose. Connecticut has the nation's highest salaries. Maybe you should move there, and don't come here complaining about forking down $500,000 on an average single family house.

[mranderson]

Again I feel that I must disagree. Anyone wishing for a nationally average salary in Oklahoma would be insane. I make much less than the national average for my occupation, am I complaining?

Oklahoma has a much lower cost of living. If you don't get it, just don't complain about the effects of it. If we got paid higher salaries, we would be payinf higher prices for real estate. In fact, out the nose. Connecticut has the nation's highest salaries. Maybe you should move there, and don't come here complaining about forking down $500,000 on an average single family house.

Most jobs coming into Oklahoma City, pay around 10.00 per hour. How can you buy a house, buy a car, feed and clothe a family, save for the future, pay for vacations, and buy the other needed items of life for 10.00 per hour? And do not say two incomes. That should not happen. Kids suffer from two income families, and from workaholics that work 60 plus hours a week and neglect their families.

[Sooner&RiceGrad]

Well know we have bashed each other's families w/o even knowing it! Just kidding. I won't throw a hissy fit like someone.

$10 is actually well above the national minimum wage, and is actually about as much as we pay our teachers, at around $20,000-25,000. But you are right. Quite low. Though it is also much lower than our metro average. May I ask for your source?

[mranderson]

Well know we have bashed each other's families w/o even knowing it! Just kidding. I won't throw a hissy fit like someone.

$10 is actually well above the national minimum wage, and is actually about as much as we pay our teachers, at around $20,000-25,000. But you are right. Quite low. Though it is also much lower than our metro average. May I ask for your source?

News media. I watch newscasts, and read the newspaper. Plus, I know the market.

[Sooner&RiceGrad]

Sounds like you won't tell me.

[Shake2005]

$10 an hour is $20,300 per year annualized. $10 per hour x 2030 work hours in a year.