Airline Cuts

[Luke]

You would think with the NBA coming, more non-stops might be coming online for OKC? No?

[Jesseda]

I do work at the airport, as everyone know, express jet i cutting service from okc, there is a cut in how many charter flights off to las vegas, flights are being reduced on flights that make multiple trips to one city like dallas, atlanta, st. louis, so far it doesnt look good on adding holiday air schedules.

[metro]

I don't think the NBA alone can justify enough traffic to warrant non stop flights.

[metro]

Southwest's marketing over the whole fee issue with other airlines is nothing short of brilliant. Some of the best ad work I've seen in a long time -- especially the print ads. Brilliant!

I guess I haven't seen the ads, do you have a link? As a marketer, I'd love to see them. Southwest has some of the best marketers in the country. I was fortunate enough to here one of their top marketing execs at a workshop here in OKC a few years back.

[venture]

US Airways will close OKC, ending the flight to Las Vegas this month and the remaining Phoenix flights in September.

So much for that one dude's US Airways Hub. :-P lol

Wonder if I should change my avatar now. Nah.

[venture]

Not sure if anyone got this earlier.

United will also end one of the 2 daily LAX flights. There is word that they will eliminate Los Angeles and Washington service this fall, so we'll have to wait and see.

[solitude]

I guess I haven't seen the ads, do you have a link? As a marketer, I'd love to see them. Southwest has some of the best marketers in the country. I was fortunate enough to here one of their top marketing execs at a workshop here in OKC a few years back.

Hi Metro, Here's a post from a blog about the ads. It has one small part of one of the ads (the coupon). I can't find the actual ads anywhere online. Lots of stories on them though....

New Southwest Airlines ad campaign targets other airlines' fees | Dallas Morning News

http://www.adweek.com/aw/content_display/creative/new-campaigns/e3i2de8a18e89befee305a120c307d17cc7

[venture]

I haven't posted this information in awhile.

Here is the 2007 Q4 Data for the markets from OKC that have at least 10 passengers per day (on average) flying to them. Highlighted markets are those that either had nonstop service at the time or currently do.

origin

Definitions of the columns...

Origin - Market city
Distance - Air distance from OKC to the city.
Passengers - Average passengers per day (overall)
Fare - Average fare paid
Carrier_lg - Largest airline overall in the market
Large_ms - Largest airline's market share percentage
Large_ppd - Largest airline's passengers per day on the route
Fare_lg - Average fare for the largest airline in the market
Yeild_lg - Rough estimate yeild per mile the route is marking the largest airline.
Carrier_low - Carrier with the lowest average fare
Lf_ms - Lowest fare airline market share percentage
Lf_ppd - Lowest fare airline passengers per day on the route
Fare_low - Average fare charged by the lowest airfare airline
Yeild_low - Rough estimate yeild per mile for the route, for the lowest fare airline
Numrecs - ignore

Airline codes for those that don't recognize them:

AA - American
CO - Continental
DL - Delta
F9 - Frontier
NW - Northwest
US - US Airways
UA - United
WN - Southwest

[lpecan]

that's awsome! where did you get that?

EDIT: Never Mind... just look at the url

Edit x 2:

So it looks like the major markets we dont have NS to that get decent traffic are:

Orlando, Florida, USA 200.87
Seattle, Washington, USA 143.48
Tampa, Florida, USA 104.13
Nashville, Tennessee, USA 96.63
Portland, Oregon, USA 94.89
San Francisco, California, USA 91.09
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA 89.89
Boston, Massachusetts, USA 86.63
Raleigh/Durham, North Carolina, USA 79.89


I guess WN is doing MCO... 200 is a pretty good yield.

The only other two that seem competitive are SEA, but I doubt AS/QX would ever fly here. Also, TPA would work, but there aren't many NS available out of there, anyway. Either way, this would be decent news for us if oil wasn't heading for $150 a barrel.


EDIT XX3

So is FlyTol your website? If so, where are you getting these OD numbers? I've been looking for them for.....ever!

[venture]

Yeah FlyTOL is mine...had it for about 15 years now.

The stats are here: Contents

Table 6 is usually the best one to use for quick reference.

I'm not sure how many of the markets out there we can get new service too. All depends on if oil goes down or not...if not, more cuts. If it does, we'll recoup some lost services.

[brianinok]

I can't seem to find the article on newsok.com right now, but I read a story a few days ago where Mark Kranenburg was quoted as saying that Delta was adding an addition daily flight to Atlanta and Cincinnati. That's at least one bright spot in all this bad news. Now if oil will just continue its 12% decrease this week....

[venture]

Yes, we do gain one more to Atlanta. Cincinnati will remain at 2 flights for now, but are expected to be cut as that hub is likely going to shut down with the Northwest merger.

[HOT ROD]

nice to see OKC get some additional flights, might stem the flow from the losses.

I just hope we dont lose United's IAD and LAX 2nd flight. I can NOT see those flights not doing well. Perhaps we just need a different plane, which is more efficient?

Especially with X-jet pulling out, those LA flights should be even fuller than they hvae been.

[venture]

Here is a run down on the currently scheduled air service changes...I would also note that in November there are several equipment changes (to smaller aircraft). This will happen on UA to Denver, Frontier to Denver, NW to Detroit, NW to Memphis, and Continental to Houston.


From OKC To -- Current Service (first number) -- November Service*(second number)

Chicago O'Hare*
American - 4 American - 3
United - 4 United - 3
--------
Detroit Metro
Northwest - 2 Northwest - 2
-----
Newark/New York
Continental - 1 Continental - 1
----
Cleveland
Continental - 2 Discontinued
--------
Cincinnati/Covington
Delta - 2 Delta - 2
------
Minneapolis/St Paul
Northwest - 2 Northwest - 2
--------
Memphis
Northwest - 3 Northwest - 3
--------
Baltimore/Washington
Southwest - 1 Southwest - 1
---------
Washington Dulles
United - 1 United - 1
---------
Atlanta
Delta - 5 Delta - 6
--------
Dallas/Fort Worth
American - 8 American - 7
--------
Dallas Love
Southwest - 5 Southwest - 5
--------
Houston Bush
Continental - 9 Continental - 9
--------
Houston Hobby
Southwest - 4 Southwest - 4
--------
St. Louis
American - 2 American - 2
Southwest - 2 Southwest - 2
--------
Denver
United - 5 United - 5
Frontier - 3 Frontier - 3
Southwest - 2 Southwest - 2
---------
Salt Lake City
Delta - 2 Delta - 2
---------
Los Angeles
United - 2 United - 1
---------
Phoenix
US Airways - 2 US Airways - Discontinued
Southwest - 3 Southwest - 3
----------
Las Vegas
US Airways - 4x week US Airways - Discontinued
Southwest - 1 Southwest - 1
----------
Albuquerque
ExpressJet - 1 Discontinued
----------
Ontario
ExpressJet - 1 Discontinued
-----------
San Diego
ExpressJet - 1 Discontinued
-----------
Sacremento
ExpressJet - 1 Discontinued
----------
Kansas City
Southwest - 3 Southwest - 3

[brianinok]

Hard to complain about that in the current environment. Glad to see UA is not dropping LAX and IAD. And how are they going to make the planes smaller to Houston, Denver, Memphis, and Detroit?? Aren't they all pretty much on RJs (except for maybe a couple flights to Houston and Denver)?

[Karried]

All I know is that I'm driving to Dallas next week to get a NS to Orlando. It sucks that I can't fly out of OKC, but I've resigned myself to that fact, a family of four saves between $400-$700 by flying out of Dallas.

It would be so nice to just get on a plane and get there in a few hours without layovers, stupid flight times, and not having to drive 3 hours to take a flight.

[venture]

The downgrades are pretty much smaller series aircraft.

Houston the big impact there...3-4 of the flights go to just 4x weekly.
Denver - United does the seasonal charge from the A320, A319 and a couple RJs they are doing now...to smaller 737 and 50 seat jets. Frontier goes from the A319/A318 aircraft back to Dash 8s.
Memphis loses a 75 seat ERJ-175 back to a 50-seat CRJ...same with Detroit.

[venture]

Here are some Q1 numbers starting to come in. I'm working with the guy that puts these together (Josh Stone) and get a full report for OKC.

Key:

Rnk: This is where the route ranks in performance for that specific airline.

System Revenue/Departure is the total amount of revenue from each itinerary that this segment is a part of, including previous and upcoming connections, as well as same itinerary return trips.

Segment Revenue/Departure is the prorated amount of revenue from each itinerary that this segment is a part of, using the root of the miles method.

Tkt Yield is the quotient of the System Revenue and Total Itinerary Miles.

Contrib Yield is quotient of the Segment Revenue and Total Segment Miles.

LF is Load Factor for the segment, as a percentage of seats filled.
------------

Rnk..Route …. Sys Rev/Dep … Seg Rev/Dep .. Seg RASM …. Tkt Yield …. Contrib Yield …. LF

United (423 possible routes)
181 .. OKC-DEN ….. $23,840.01 ….. $7,396.69 ….. $0.16922 ….. $0.18766 ….. $0.17168 ….. 71.51%
281 .. OKC-IAD ….. $20,219.65 ….. $9,800.83 ….. $0.13072 ….. $0.19603 ….. $0.19320 ….. 65.65%
292 .. ORD-OKC ….. $14,332.61 ….. $4,957.73 ….. $0.12788 ….. $0.18405 ….. $0.17673 ….. 64.04%
360 .. OKC-LAX ….. $16,615.93 ….. $7,466.16 ….. $0.09530 ….. $0.15543 ….. $0.14909 ….. 58.12%

Northwest (357 possible routes)
93 .. OKC-MEM ….. $14,619.46 ….. $5,976.41 ….. $0.24685 ….. $0.22993 ….. $0.19327 ….. 77.92%
129 .. OKC-MSP ….. $13,144.00 ….. $7,523.08 ….. $0.21649 ….. $0.23087 ….. $0.17487 ….. 71.33%
251 .. OKC-DTW ….. $10,756.07 ….. $6,140.81 ….. $0.13646 ….. $0.17183 ….. $0.16444 ….. 76.73%

US Airways (429 possible routes)
323 .. PHX-OKC ….. $22,159.18 ….. $8,238.97 ….. $0.11501 ….. $0.14183 ….. $0.13571 ….. 74.90%
395 .. OKC-LAS ….. $15,025.64 ….. $6,670.04 ….. $0.07858 ….. $0.12944 ….. $0.13199 ….. 62.17%

Continental (284 possible routes)
57 .. OKC-IAH ….. $13,234.93 ….. $6,464.91 ….. $0.24838 ….. $0.19530 ….. $0.14367 ….. 79.32%
209 .. OKC-CLE ….. $7,530.07 ….. $5,797.39 ….. $0.12364 ….. $0.21327 ….. $0.15019 ….. 50.70%
225 .. OKC-EWR ….. $8,148.49 ….. $7,731.09 ….. $0.11670 ….. $0.16735 ….. $0.18867 ….. 70.16%

American (ranks and total number not avail)
OKC-DFW …..$36,082.66 …..$6,614.86 …..$0.28880 …..$0.17345 …..$0.15466 …..76.40%
STL-OKC …..$8,861.08 …..$4,337.63 …..$0.18778 …..$0.19089 …..$0.15055 …..70.88%
ORD-OKC …..$13,383.03 …..$5,278.56 …..$0.13943 …..$0.19174 …..$0.18456 …..68.38%

Delta (518 possible routes - LAX was already discontinued)
189 .. OKC-ATL ….. $22,996.57 ….. $8,727.23 ….. $0.19082 ….. $0.23386 ….. $0.22601 ….. 76.96%
325 .. OKC-CVG ….. $15,666.54 ….. $5,437.70 ….. $0.14387 ….. $0.19249 ….. $0.19156 ….. 74.06%
389 .. OKC-LAX ….. $7,114.42 ….. $7,059.29 ….. $0.11894 ….. $0.19138 ….. $0.14597 ….. 62.00%
402 .. SLC-OKC ….. $15,939.83 ….. $4,839.74 ….. $0.11177 ….. $0.14172 ….. $0.13998 ….. 76.63%

[HOT ROD]

I wonder why Continental couldn't keep just one flight to CLE?

Also, why we never got Charlotte on USA is just mind-boggling to me. Also, why doesn't the Southwest Orlando flight survive? Can't they do a Saturday/Sunday service?

One more question, will Southwest pick up the Vegas (and Phoenix) seats?

As much as I hate the thought of OKC turning into a Southwest bastion - but I want to see cities covered and so far they are the only airline who consistently does well in OKC.

As for United - I thought the A320's and A319's are more fuel efficient their 737-300/500's and puddle-jumpers? Maybe USA can sell some of their jets to United?

Good to see Chicago not take a huge hit, though I can't see why we took a hit at all considering all planes are rj's. Why isn't Southwest doing Chicago Midway? Even one daily flight would suffice.

I think Mark K needs to get creative with airlines. Instead of daily flights, go with X weekly. Or share a flight with Tulsa or whatever. We need to get creative, because there is no reason in my mind, for OKC to lose flights to Chicago or Vegas, and no reason I can think of that OKC doesn't have 2x weekly to Orlando.

I too am glad to see IAD and BWI and LAX and EWR remain.

[venture]

Hot Rod...

CO cut back a lot from CLE, so the routes OKC and other cities would feed to went away. They are also eliminating a good chunk of RJs from their system.

Charlotte on US was pretty much a given, everyone would have thought. I just think the local group running the airport didn't push too much for it. If US had CLT here, they wouldn't be leaving.

I'll get the yeild numbers on Orlando, but I'm sure they are downright ugly.

Southwest won't add anything to PHX or LAS, from my guess. Once I can get my hands on the data that includes Southwest, we can figure out where they are sitting. The US Airways flights were doing about 129 passengers a day, LAS was about 54 passengers 3 days a week. If Southwest is averaging about 75% load factors, or about 308 pax a day...that means there is room for about 108 more passengers on those flights. So the need for an additional segments by Southwest is very low.

United is parking the vast majority of their 737 fleet by the end of next year. US Airways will start doing the same. So there is a little to no reason for US to sell any aircraft to United. Plus United will offset this by additional code-sharing with Continental.

Chicago...both airlines in the mid 60s for load factors, flying high cost RJs...cut backs were a given. American is moving a large number of RJs to replace the remaining Saab turboprops - so they had to pull them from somewhere. I think there is also a major push to cut back traffic in Chicago until capacity is able to be increased through the new runway.

The days of tagged flights is pretty much done outside Southwest. Hooking up with TUL is a waste of money for airlines. I would say now would be a time to try to get Allegiant in here, at least to Florida...but again, the demand may not be there - especially since the vast majority of their business is on package sales...not air fares.

[Luke]

I would love a nonstop to Orlando via Southwest or Allegiant. We just flew from Wichita to Orlando. I like that it's non-stop. Of course, we flew on their last flight back to Wichita. So, no more Wichita to Orlando.

Looks like layovers from OKC to Orlando.

[HOT ROD]

how could Wichita have Orlando and not Oklahoma City. No offense to ICT, but OKC is a much bigger market - and Venture, you have Karried and many other people on here who are saying they travel to DFW to get flights to Orlando and a few other markets not served well or at all by Will Rogers.

I think this needs to be brought up to WRWA management, they need to do a better job getting OKC flights. They dont all have to be daily nonstops, we could do X times weekly or even once a week (say to Orlando via Southwest, like they were doing Baltimore until recently making it daily).

Get creative... Go after more direct flights, say to San Francisco via Denver on United. I've never seen it - but isn't that a natural? I have seen Seattle via Denver before and have flown it, but i haven't seen it in the last year or so, since Frontier started service to both SEA and OKC.

As for tagging, I think that is a missed opportunity. Im sure TUL would rather tag along with OKC rather than lose service altogether. And it might just make sense for a flight to Orlando - for instance - that OKC and TUL tag together. I say this because doesn't charter flights do tagging (like to cancun).

Like I said, there are NUMEROUS people who are still going to DFW for DOMESTIC flights. I could see it if they were going international and wanted to save some bucks. But IT SHOULD BE TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE in this day and age with OKC having 1.4M metro area - that such a large amount of people would still go to DFW for domestic flights.

I think when Alliegent was here - perhaps their flights were not priced right. I mean, it wasn't like they needed to fill a 757 or even 37; they flew rj's. Im sure they could have been profitable at 60%. Maybe now they need 80% but still that should leave some discount options.

I dont want to let WRWA off the hook. Im not buying it about the jet fuel - OKC should be in the position to pick up or lose no flights. Smaller planes, ok - I admit that. But, we should not lose any - in fact OKC should be still gaining.

I do agree about CLE closing would have an effect on OKC. It's just sad to see.

ditto the CLT that never became. Get on Kran's A$$ about this!!@!!

[venture]

There have been two recent attempts to have nonstops from OKC to MCO.

Allegiant had planned to fly to Sanford/Orlando when they were flying here, but the lack of demand had them pull Las Vegas flights and nix ideas for Orlando.

Delta Connection had operated one daily flight on an ERJ-145 last year. The flight was barely half full, of low yeild (money losing) passengers, and it got axed with other low yeild traffic. Guess who controlled the majority of traffic? Southwest...who gladly services OKC-Orlando with a brief stop in Houston.

You also can't compare Wichita with Oklahoma City. That city does massive subsidies to airlines. To AirTran alone, they have paid nearly $35 million to them over the years to maintain that service.

Allegiant flies all MD-80s...not RJs. Again, they make their money off of packages...not air fares.

Direct flights are still there...American does several with their DFW bound flights that continue to the west coast. Charters do not tag flights...if you are thinking about Cancun, they make a stop in Dallas on the way back to clear customs - nothing more. OKC does not have a passenger customs facility.

The problem right now is that unless you have a higher yeilding (money making) route, the airlines aren't going to bight. Nearly EVERY airline has drastically cut back flights into Orlando. Why? Low yeild, money losing flights. Airlines do not give a crap about the leisure vacation passenger right now.

I'll get the overall OKC specific details...that will allow us to see just how well OKC is doing.

[SeinfeldBlock]

I wonder why Continental couldn't keep just one flight to CLE?
...........

I too am glad to see IAD and BWI and LAX and EWR remain.

I wasn't sure why they were cutting the Cleveland flights...I'm disappointed to hear that they are. Lately, when I haven't been able to get a direct flight from OKC to EWR, I've passed through Cleveland--at least a few times in the past 6 months or so. The rest of the time I'm going through Houston, but it's actually very expensive for consumers to fly to EWR via Houston from OKC. I'm not sure why....

I was really paranoid that the EWR flight would be cut. Granted, it's the ONLY non-stop we have to the New York metro area, so I thought it was safe, but I take that route about 10+ times a year. That would have seriously dampened my opinion of WRWA.

I fly Continental 90% of the time. I hate to see any cuts from them.

I'm learning a lot on this thread..... you know, as an average flyer......

[BG918]

I keep expecting to hear Frontier will cut flights from OKC. I am flying them in September to Denver and really hope they don't. We can't let United control OKC-DEN, I fly that route alot and don't want to pay way more than I have to.