Wheeler District

[CCOKC]

The infrastructure to build SW 15th is literally happening right now. I live on 16th street and can see the progress out of my windows every day. As a resident, I personally cannot wait for 15th to be finished so I can access the neighborhood to the west more easily. I vote at Exchange Avenue Church and have to go out to Western, go to S 22, and wind my way back to the west (within a block of my house) and up to Penn and Exchange.

[soonerguru]

I do not. The current interest rate environment is not supportive of large-scale residential land development (or most speculative development, for that matter).

I mean, I'm not saying this is wrong, but it's a bit confusing. Current interest rates are relatively low by historical standards. The anomaly was the induced low interest rate period we experienced in the last decade. Interest rates are higher, but not "high" by historical standards at all, which begs the question, "How was stuff built back then when interest rates were even higher?"

[Pete]

I mean, I'm not saying this is wrong, but it's a bit confusing. Current interest rates are relatively low by historical standards. The anomaly was the induced low interest rate period we experienced in the last decade. Interest rates are higher, but not "high" by historical standards at all, which begs the question, "How was stuff built back then when interest rates were even higher?"

This is a good point. Currently, the Fed Funds rate is 4.5%, indicated by the red line.

You can see rates have rarely been below this mark in the last 70 years.

And the only sustained period (other than after WWII) was post-2008, after a near collapse of our entire banking industry and thus an extreme outlier.

[BDP]

This is a good point. Currently, the Fed Funds rate is 4.5%, indicated by the red line.

You can see rates have rarely been below this mark in the last 70 years.

And the only sustained period (other than after WWII) was post-2008, after a near collapse of our entire banking industry and thus an extreme outlier.

I don't want to minimize the effects of relatively higher interest rates and higher inflation, but, when viewed in a historical context, the last 20-25 years have actually been extreme in the other direction.

Of course, it's always a quick and drastic change that hurts the most. Interest rates and inflation of 5% isn't historically high, but after 10-15 years of little inflation and almost a 0% fed rate, it's a shock to the system.

[Pete]

I don't want to minimize the effects of relatively higher interest rates and higher inflation, but, when viewed in a historical context, the last 20-25 years have actually been extreme in the other direction.

Of course, it's always a quick and drastic change that hurts the most. Interest rates and inflation of 5% isn't historically high, but after 10-15 years of little inflation and almost a 0% fed rate, it's a shock to the system.

The shock was needed to quell inflation, which was caused by artificially low rates for too long.

There are good reasons rates have never been that low for that long.

[Jeepnokc]

I mean, I'm not saying this is wrong, but it's a bit confusing. Current interest rates are relatively low by historical standards. The anomaly was the induced low interest rate period we experienced in the last decade. Interest rates are higher, but not "high" by historical standards at all, which begs the question, "How was stuff built back then when interest rates were even higher?"

Purely speculative as I wasn't doing any real estate back then but interest rates aren't the only expense in building. Not sure of material costs back then but i know we have seen a huge jump in cost of materials over the last five years. Plywood got up to over $100 finished sheet for a while. I have an apartment complex with 100% occupancy in an rural area with enough extra land to build more units but with the cost of construction...can't justify it based on rental rates in that county. (We are the highest in town). With interest rates coming down...may start making sense. Rental rates determine whether is makes sense which is why Wheeler and some of the downtown stuff work but mid level or lower doesn't make sense right now without assistance.

"Construction Inflation History
Post Great Recession, 2011-2020, average inflation rates:

Nonresidential buildings inflation 10-year average (2011-2020) is 3.7%. In 2020 it dropped to 2.5%, but for the six years 2014-2019 it averaged 4.4%. In 2021 it jumped to 8%, the highest since 2006-2007. In 2022 it hit 12%, the highest since 1980-81.

Residential 8-year average inflation for 2013-2020 is 5.0%. In 2020 it was 4.5%. In 2021 it jumped to 14% and then in 2022 reached 15.7%. the highest on record."

source: https://edzarenski.com/category/infl...%20is%205.0%25.

[soonerguru]

Purely speculative as I wasn't doing any real estate back then but interest rates aren't the only expense in building. Not sure of material costs back then but i know we have seen a huge jump in cost of materials over the last five years. Plywood got up to over $100 finished sheet for a while. I have an apartment complex with 100% occupancy in an rural area with enough extra land to build more units but with the cost of construction...can't justify it based on rental rates in that county. (We are the highest in town). With interest rates coming down...may start making sense. Rental rates determine whether is makes sense which is why Wheeler and some of the downtown stuff work but mid level or lower doesn't make sense right now without assistance.

"Construction Inflation History
Post Great Recession, 2011-2020, average inflation rates:

Nonresidential buildings inflation 10-year average (2011-2020) is 3.7%. In 2020 it dropped to 2.5%, but for the six years 2014-2019 it averaged 4.4%. In 2021 it jumped to 8%, the highest since 2006-2007. In 2022 it hit 12%, the highest since 1980-81.

Residential 8-year average inflation for 2013-2020 is 5.0%. In 2020 it was 4.5%. In 2021 it jumped to 14% and then in 2022 reached 15.7%. the highest on record."

source: https://edzarenski.com/category/infl...%20is%205.0%25.

No doubt building costs are probably a big factor. Again, not really a function of interest rates.

We have seen somewhat of a cooling off on costs since the post-pandemic peak. But, the economy has not slowed down and we have a ton of things being built, which in itself will keep costs somewhat high.

But that doesn't stop people who know how to make money from investing.