September 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[Bill Robertson]

I don't have a great deal of faith in forecasts more than couple days out and more than that my confidence drops rapidly. And that's based on 24 years of working with aviation professionals who consider flying weather of utmost importance.
That being said I live day to day weather wise. And today for driving around with the top down was WONDERFUL!!!! Tomorrow looks even better.

[BG918]

Looks like another swing and a miss for a tropical system affecting Oklahoma. The models have been pretty consistent moving this system further east. Still possible it could move further east - one of these could quickly erase our worsening drought conditions

[C_M_25]

Loving the cool temps but can’t help but feel like we need some rain. It’s getting dry out there.

[Pete]

Crunchy grass weather.

[FighttheGoodFight]

6 to 10 day looks like above average temps again. We have left False Fall and entered Third Summer of Deception.

[BG918]

Loving the cool temps but can’t help but feel like we need some rain. It’s getting dry out there.

It’s coming - just have to wait another week for the pattern to change

GFS rainfall through next weekend

[BG918]

There will be a few rain chances this week starting Wednesday with higher chances NW then statewide starting Friday lasting into Monday. Decent rainfall totals still expected, we’ll know more mid-week.

[The]

There will be a few rain chances this week starting Wednesday with higher chances NW then statewide starting Friday lasting into Monday. Decent rainfall totals still expected, we’ll know more mid-week.

I feel like I've read similar posts from you for weeks now and it's dry as a bone (I'll have to look back). Hoping it's true this week!

[BG918]

I feel like I've read similar posts from you for weeks now and it's dry as a bone (I'll have to look back). Hoping it's true this week!

Well the last system Labor Day weekend was adversely affected by a tropical disturbance in the Gulf which limited rainfall totals except across eastern OK which picked up between 1-2”. Then Francine moved about 300 miles too far east and we got dry air on the backside. You’re right though the last two weeks have been unusually dry across the state. In fact Tulsa has not had rain the first two weeks of September only 7 times since 1895!

Strong signals the pattern will shift to cooler and wetter for the second half of September though. No idea how long it will last..

[kukblue1]

Buckle up end of the month is going to get active. Starting end of this weekend first of next week. Can't tell where too early could be Kansas/Nebraska Could be Kansas/Oklahoma too early too tell but rain and storms possible.

[kukblue1]

Saturday could see some rain. Next week mid week is looking much better. 37 days and counting

[crimsoncrazy]

New GFS with basically nothing the rest of the month.

[bison34]

Jinxed again by BG

[BG918]

Jinxed again by BG

I'll wash my car today to un-jinx us! Just like the Festival of the Arts the State Fair always brings the rain.

And the CMC model is still pretty wet across OK to end the month. This handled Francine pretty well so we'll see.

[kukblue1]

Well Hurricane in the Eastern Gulf next week could bring our chances down as you get a north flow on the western half of the gulf so moisture might be in question next week.

[crimsoncrazy]

I'll wash my car today to un-jinx us! Just like the Festival of the Arts the State Fair always brings the rain.

And the CMC model is still pretty wet across OK to end the month. This handled Francine pretty well so we'll see.

Might want to check that CMC again.

[SoonerDave]

I'd caution people to keep in mind that many of these models ten-plus days out are kindred to the models that had a 60% chance of rain not even 24 hours before OU's season opener, and it was a beautiful night. As I've been told by other Mets over the years, models and forecasts that far out are essentially crapshoots.

[WenDragon]

Fantasycasts.

[FighttheGoodFight]

I'd caution people to keep in mind that many of these models ten-plus days out are kindred to the models that had a 60% chance of rain not even 24 hours before OU's season opener, and it was a beautiful night. As I've been told by other Mets over the years, models and forecasts that far out are essentially crapshoots.

What is a good amount of time that models "lock in" more? 4 days out or 2?

[bison34]

These droughts keep getting longer and longer.

[MagzOK]

What is a good amount of time that models "lock in" more? 4 days out or 2?

The tried and true 48 hour rule. Anything outside of 48 hours I just an outlier with signals of what could happen. Everything really starts zeroing in at 48 hours.

[BG918]

Well Hurricane in the Eastern Gulf next week could bring our chances down as you get a north flow on the western half of the gulf so moisture might be in question next week.

We've been screwed by tropical systems multiple times this year for this exact reason. If Beryl and/or Francine go 300 miles west we are 100% drought-free.

[Bill Robertson]

The tried and true 48 hour rule. Anything outside of 48 hours I just an outlier with signals of what could happen. Everything really starts zeroing in at 48 hours.

48 hours is my opinion also. Based on having jobs most of my career that relied on what the weather was going to do.

[BG918]

Let's face it weather technology still has a long ways to go. Weather forecasts are not any more accurate than they were 20 years ago.

[C_M_25]

This has been one of the driest Septembers that I can remember. We really need some rain or we’re going to have an awful fire season.