May 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[BG918]

Storms moving through south-central OK including a severe cell that just went through Duncan. Southern parts of the OKC metro may get a storm in the next couple hours.

Looking toward the weekend storm chances return Sunday into Monday. Right now the severe weather threat appears to be on the low side.

[MagzOK]

Around here we always have to watch the weather, especially in May. May does not play by the rules.

[SoonerDave]

Angry little thunderboomer built up in SW OK county rumbling ENE and one looking to try and form directly behind it around Mustang.

Don't think this precip area was expected to come *quite* this far north, but here we are.

[C_M_25]

I’m looking forward to a slow rainy day tomorrow. Love these days where these slow waves of rain push across the state all day. Hearing that rain and a clap of thunder every so often…that’s good napping weather right there.

[bison34]

I’m looking forward to a slow rainy day tomorrow. Love these days where these slow waves of rain push across the state all day. Hearing that rain and a clap of thunder every so often…that’s good napping weather right there.

Is OKC looking at rain tomorrow? If so, what time?

[BG918]

Is OKC looking at rain tomorrow? If so, what time?

Rain and some embedded thunderstorms in western OK are slowly moving east toward OKC. Somewhat drier air across eastern OK is a limiting factor but that should change later tonight. 0.5-1” expected across most areas.

[Bunty]

Rain and some embedded thunderstorms in western OK are slowly moving east toward OKC. Somewhat drier air across eastern OK is a limiting factor but that should change later tonight. 0.5-1” expected across most areas.

That has turned out true for my Stillwater rain gauge. .34" fell before midnight and, so far, after midnight, .40".

It's still on the dry side around here and more so in northwestern Oklahoma:

[warreng88]

Yesterday was a great day to plant things. The ground was soft due to the rain Sunday morning, then it dried up and we got rain Monday morning.

[bison34]

That has turned out true for my Stillwater rain gauge. .34" fell before midnight and, so far, after midnight, .40".

It's still on the dry side around here and more so in northwestern Oklahoma:

Drought is starting to return, especially for NW OK. And creeping SE. OKC will be there soon, most likely.

[jn1780]

That was from May 7th. A lot of these areas saw .5 to 1 inch of rain the past seven days. The whole state is never going to be 'perfect' especially the west. Given that OKC has more rain in the forecast, I don't think it will be an issue for the metro. A couple of you talk like were the driest state when its far better than past years.

[soonergolfer]

Amazing how it only takes 13 days into the month before someone brings up drought maps, especially considering some parts of the NE and S have received over 6" in May so far. Relax, people.

[C_M_25]

Amazing how it only takes 13 days into the month before someone brings up drought maps, especially considering some parts of the NE and S have received over 6" in May so far. Relax, people.

Why are there so many negative people in this thread these days? If the dude wants to post a drought map, then he can post a drought map. Maybe it’s really important for him?

[jn1780]

Maybe adding context and keeping things in perspective is important to me? Its a dated graphic.

[BG918]

Drought is starting to return, especially for NW OK. And creeping SE. OKC will be there soon, most likely.

Not returning anytime soon - the wet pattern looks to remain in place through at least the end of May. We could even see some flooding concerns if this verifies. June is our MCS season where we typically pick up a few more inches from nighttime thunderstorm complexes before the heat dome arrives and shuts things off in July. The more soil moisture we can get in May and June helps tremendously.

GFS forecasted rainfall through late May

[Bunty]

Maybe adding context and keeping things in perspective is important to me? Its a dated graphic.

While it's dated, it's the latest one until this Thursday.

[Bunty]

Amazing how it only takes 13 days into the month before someone brings up drought maps, especially considering some parts of the NE and S have received over 6" in May so far. Relax, people.

It's still interesting to see how feast or famine goes with the weather. Much of Kay County got clear of drought from big downpours, while the neighboring county to the west is in moderate drought. It's neighboring county, Woods, is in severe drought.

[Anonymous.]

SPC has upgraded tomorrow evening's storms to Slight Risk across most of W and C OK.

[okatty]

SPC has upgraded tomorrow evening's storms to Slight Risk across most of W and C OK.

Is this likely an overnight event for the metro?

[kukblue1]

The weather twitter hype train is in full force for next week.

[SEMIweather]

Is this likely an overnight event for the metro?

Yes, late afternoon/early evening storms will likely pass to our NW, then the Metro looks to gets in on the action by mid evening. Storm mode looks to be messy with multicell clusters, maybe some brief supercells as well. Tornado threat is very low, but hail/wind threat is worth mentioning. Also think there's a chance of street flooding with multiple rounds of convection. The active pattern looks to continue into Thursday/Thursday Night, though I do wonder if the atmosphere will be too worked over to maintain the severe threat by that point. Would expect a continued heavy rain/localized flash flood threat either way on Thursday as moisture profiles continue to improve, plus we will possibly be approaching an inch of rain with tomorrow night's storms.

Rain moves out by midday Friday. Friday evening is pleasant, but after that a ridge builds in and gives us our first real extended stretch of heat and humidity starting on Saturday. Could see our first 90 degree day of the year by this time next week. As others have mentioned, this tends to be a favorable pattern for nocturnal MCS activity. The MCS train is currently forecast to set up to our north and east, but this often trends south and west over time, so it's probably worth keeping an eye on.

Ridge appears to break down somewhat by Memorial weekend, and the resulting southwest flow could possibly return us to a favorable pattern for higher-end severe weather, so will be keeping an eye on that as well. Way too early to make any predictions, but it's getting some chatter on social media.

[okatty]

^Thank you. Appreciate all the good wx info that you all post here.

[kukblue1]

Just want to give a heads up too if you're going to the Thunder game it might really be raining at the end of the game so keep that in mind if you have to walk back to your car.

[Anonymous.]

SPC upgraded NW OK to Enhanced Risk for tonight. This will be due to severe wind probabilities.

I agree with SEMI above, flooding threat will be high wherever the training clusters of storms setup. Could see a swath of 2-3" rainfall amounts somewhere from I-40 corridor out in W OK - trailing into C/NC OK.

[SEMIweather]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely coming for Western Oklahoma in the next hour or so. Might include OKC or might stop a county to the west. This could be a situation where the storms buzz the Metro for several hours without actually moving in until Midnight or so, or it could a situation where mesoscale interactions result in the main convective complex sinking south and moving in several hours before what’s currently modeled. Will just have to wait and see what the evolution ends up being.

Note that while there is a currently a swath of convective cloudiness and isolated storms roughly from Hollis to Minco, it seems likely that the main area of initiation will be to the north of this. But at the same time, the small cell currently over Minco doesn’t really show any signs of weakening, so portions of the Metro will probably get a brief downpour during rush hour.

[LakeEffect]

Last night's storms were kinda weird, right?

Got 0.42" near downtown Edmond - no complaints here since we didn't get any extreme here either. That wind was significant in various spots.

Today's Drought Monitor report shows improvement across the state, and since the data is only through early on May 14, next week's should be even better.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Curre...onitor.aspx?OK

Map released: Thurs. May 16, 2024
Data valid: May 14, 2024 at 8 a.m. EDT