I think what spooked the SPC and the NWS is that the models were showing a line of severe storms firing pretty far in front of the dry line. The HRRR was consistent with this all day. Thats why the early watches and closures came out so early. The problem with this is that this is the second time the high res models signaled firing of storms way in front of the dry line this spring, and those storms never materialized in either case. To me, that signals something is just off with the model. Something is missing or misunderstood in the math behind that model. I don’t claim to be smart enough to understand it. It could simply just be not enough information to solution the prediction properly or it could be something missing in the model. Either way, I hope the experts are studying some of this and can update the models to be a little more robust in the future.