May 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[jn1780]

Here’s another special sounding from just before 1:00. With that cap, would think it will be difficult (but not impossible) for anything to initiate via the confluence zone ahead of the dryline as the HRRR has suggested. If anything does happen, it should be isolated and less of a threat than whatever initiates along the dryline.

https://twitter.com/MesonetMan/statu...52971993030715

That's good in the sense that there won't be any confusion about what is the 'main event'.

[SEMIweather]

Think it’s safe to say that initiation has occurred just SW of Arnett. Tend to think that it might be a pretty slow ramp up in terms of intensification over the next 2-3 hours, but that things could really get serious in a hurry thereafter. We shall see.

[NikonNurse]

I’m struggling with this one today. Heavy cloud cover. The air quite literally feels cool outside. This just feels like it’s going to be a north-central ok event with limited impacts on okc.

The sun is out over by my place, which is at Wilshire and Kilpatrick.

[okatty]

@BaronWeather’s spin model:

https://x.com/HuffmanHeadsUp/status/1787564750043218080

[PoliSciGuy]

@BaronWeather’s spin model:

https://x.com/HuffmanHeadsUp/status/1787564750043218080

"Highly credible" is stretching it, dude is trying to upsell his premium products. You can get similar results from CAMS' helicity tracks

[kukblue1]

We are really doing wall-to-wall coverage already for one thunderstorm warning. People are going to be burned out before the big action really starts. No other tv media would be wall-to-wall coverage for a Thunderstorm warning

[SoonerDave]

We are really doing wall-to-wall coverage already for one thunderstorm warning. People are going to be burned out before the big action really starts. No other tv media would be wall-to-wall coverage for a Thunderstorm warning

Well, in all honesty, all KWTV is covering up is something like an eight year old Dr Phil rerun, so it's no great loss.

[MagzOK]

It's probably just a proprietary deal by Barron. I've never seen this model, but Baron is behind some of the best weather apps that companies and some TV stations put a skin over and call it their own -- News9 weather, ATs Weather To GO, etc.

BTW, I'm in no way blessing this model, but thought I'd share what I knew about it.

[SEMIweather]

New Mesoscale Discussion for NW OK: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0655.html

[Anonymous.]

Not sure I have ever seen a MD mentioning strong tornados possible for storms that have just developed, or have not even developed. Very strong wording from NWS to mention an extreme solution before storms have even materialized.

[jn1780]

Another cell going up NW of Sayre. Dryline doesn't seem to have a problem 'unzipping'.

[C_M_25]

Not sure I have ever seen a MD mentioning strong tornados possible for storms that have just developed, or have not even developed. Very strong wording from NWS to mention an extreme solution before storms have even materialized.

Same. It’s very strange given the lack of agreement on models today too. Im sure there will be storms later but this is all very strange.

[soonerguru]

Sheesh dude. Did I say this is a bust? No. Not once did I type that. I just said it doesn't "feel" like a major weather event out there right now.

Have you been outside in the last 15 minutes? It definitely "feels" like it now.

[PoliSciGuy]

Same. It’s very strange given the lack of agreement on models today too. Im sure there will be storms later but this is all very strange.

With a high-end parameter space like this, it really is a matter of when and where, not if. This just seems strange because the atmosphere is so primed today.

[Bunty]

Tornado watch in yellow until 11 pm.


Radar that updates:

[Anonymous.]

Latest short-range models suggesting cluster of supercells N of I-40 will track ENE, with 1-2 primary cells tracking more E closer to I-40. Even suggesting they will track over the same areas as they get into C OK. So an increase threat of flash flooding for those under the train.

[bison34]

Darn. Not looking like much for the metro, at least not for a while. Kind of makes it crazy that places closed at 2pm.

[soonerguru]

Same. It’s very strange given the lack of agreement on models today too. Im sure there will be storms later but this is all very strange.

I haven't studied the models, but there seems to be near unanimous consensus that this is the right atmosphere for a high-end outbreak of large, long-track tornadoes.

[jn1780]

Darn. Not looking like much for the metro, at least not for a while. Kind of makes it crazy that places closed at 2pm.

Hopefully that comment is directed at closing things down early and not wishing for storms that will probably be producing destructive tornados.

As for the closing down things down early, it has been known for awhile this was going to be an late evening event, don't know why everyone pulled the trigger so early. I'm seeing another cell form south of Sayre so North OKC and Edmond will be under the gun later tonight.

[Jeepnokc]

Hopefully that comment is directed at closing things down early and not wishing for storms that will probably be producing destructive tornados.

As for the closing down things down early, it has been known for awhile this was going to be an late evening event. I'm seeing another cell form south of Sayre so North OKC and Edmond will be under the gun later tonight.

The Oklahoma County Courthouse closed at 2 pm today.

[bison34]

Hopefully that comment is directed at closing things down early and not wishing for storms that will probably be producing destructive tornados.

As for the closing down things down early, it has been known for awhile this was going to be an late evening event, don't know everyone pulled the trigger so early. I'm seeing another cell form south of Sayre so North OKC and Edmond will be under the gun later tonight.

More at the places in OKC area closing at 3pm. I don't want tornados. But we can always use more rain. We can go months without it in the summer and fall, so we need all we can get.

Not hoping for tornados to hit anywhere.

[SoonerDave]

I haven't studied the models, but there seems to be near unanimous consensus that this is the right atmosphere for a high-end outbreak of large, long-track tornadoes.

There was definitely a couple of runs from one model suggesting storm development right over OK county right at 3pm. That's almost certainly what drove the early closures. Fortunately, that didn't materialize.

[SoonerDave]

Amarillo radar showing that additional SW development of this line is happening almost *exactly* at the intersection of I-40 and the OK state line. The animation over that spot is actually kind of amazing in its consistency.

[Ohwiseone]

The Radar network isn't great, but it appears that the storm South of I-40 Near Sayre has died.

Everything at the moment seems to be concentrated I-40 and north.

[soonerguru]

Darn. Not looking like much for the metro, at least not for a while. Kind of makes it crazy that places closed at 2pm.

Bureaucracy like closing a courthouse requires a lot of approvals. It's not like some random dude deciding to leave work early. A courthouse has people who commute an hour or more to get there on a regular basis.

You should be celebrating the fact that institutional employers care about their employees and actually listen to the scientists telling us this is a big deal. The alternative is unacceptable.

For the life of me I don't understand the bizarre nitpicking about nothing burgers like this on this board.