April 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[SoonerDave]

I know Payne takes some criticism, but I think today he has been really balanced. I think he's done a worthy job of tempering the urge to go extreme and still relaying storms with a legit threat. Definitely not hysterical today so far.

[TornadoKegan]

Uhh 80% Black Spot in OKC

[liirogue]

Is Nadocast a legitimate source? I'm asking because I'm seeing their graphics explode over social media today but I don't recall ever hearing about them before.

[Mballard85]

Is Nadocast a legitimate source? I'm asking because I'm seeing their graphics explode over social media today but I don't recall ever hearing about them before.

A lot of storm chasers and forecasters utilize his stuff. He nailed the storms yesterday in NE and IA.

[TornadoKegan]

Another Sounding for 21Z (4PM)

[TornadoKegan]

Around SE Moore at 6PM HRRR

[runOKC]

Can someone explain the most recent sounding like I’m 5?

Just want to say how much I appreciate all the analysis and info you guys post here during these events, and I know I’m not alone.

[bison34]

When is round 2? I hope it is just rain.

[PoliSciGuy]

When is round 2? I hope it is just rain.

The lack of action right now isn't great as it means the atmosphere is able to recharge. Probably between 3-8pm, which should be the main round

[Bunty]

Storm from OKC moving through Stillwater as of 3:10 pm. Thankfully, it looks like the worst part of it, the hail core, won't include the east side of Stillwater where rain isn't very heavy. No hail, here so far. OSU might be spared, from the hail, too.

[C_M_25]

Dewpoints are completely unfazed by the previous round of storms.

[John1744]

Dewpoints are completely unfazed by the previous round of storms.

im guessing that plus the sun looking to be coming out in central OK is not a good thing?

[Bunty]

Ha, someone was wrong enough to turn on the tornado sirens in Stillwater for the storm that just passed all of Stillwater. Crying wolf with the sirens needs to stop! The actual tornado warning is only for northern Payne County and Eastern Noble County.

[SoonerDave]

Can someone explain the most recent sounding like I’m 5?

Just want to say how much I appreciate all the analysis and info you guys post here during these events, and I know I’m not alone.

It means we are far from out of the woods storm/tornado wise. Atmosphere still very favorable. Lots of instability and favorable upper wind profiles.

[SoonerDave]

Where is the dry line right now? It looks like it is still in the TX panhandle but I wanted to confirm

[PoliSciGuy]

This Hinton/Lookeba storm could pose some trouble for folks in the NW metro

https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1784324585237991792

[bison34]

Near Draper has missed basically all of the action by 5 miles.

[NikonNurse]

This Hinton/Lookeba storm could pose some trouble for folks in the NW metro

https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1784324585237991792

It's west of me (NW OKC) and headed NW.. This one may bother Okarche/Piedmont...

[Hollywood]

The chaser traffic jam is ridiculous.

[PoliSciGuy]

It's west of me (NW OKC) and headed NW.. This one may bother Okarche/Piedmont...

When these storms plant a tornado though they can tend to move more due east, which would be trouble

[Bunty]

This map gives you a good idea of where the dry line is.

[SoonerDave]

When these storms plant a tornado though they can tend to move more due east, which would be trouble

The storms are moving NE, not NW, but even so, a strong right turn would be a problem. Haven't seen that in these storms much today, so far.

[Ohwiseone]

Some chatter that there is something missing today with the atmosphere, which is why the storms while potent, haven’t matched what the models were showing.

(I understand that we have another wave to go through that hasn’t even formed yet).

But, something to consider.

[SoonerDave]

Some chatter that there is something missing today with the atmosphere, which is why the storms while potent, haven’t matched what the models were showing.

(I understand that we have another wave to go through that hasn’t even formed yet).

But, something to consider.

I definitely think that's becoming some conventional wisdom. I heard some storms out of Colorado that were kinda forcing some aspects of this event faded unexpectedly overnight and that may be one component in the equation. But still an evening to get through and who knows what still might develop. Soundings and hodographs still show prime environment

[C_M_25]

Feel like this simply comes down to the fact that the dry line is still so far out west. Never really got any forcing to get the storms going. It’s been overcast all day too which didn’t help things. Obviously, things can ramp up later in the 2nd round but we’ll just have to see.

Something has been off though so far this year. The models have done a pretty poor job of predicting these systems so far. Then again, I bet things really ramp up here in May.