Quote Originally Posted by soonerguru View Post
I'm not as geeked out as some here about NAM and EURO and the other acronyms, so I may need some folks to dumb it down a bit for the folks in the peanut gallery.

I agree with the sentiment expressed here, but Oklahoma County is currently under a flood watch by the NWS. Are we really going to strike out again on getting any significant rain?
The acronyms are just names for the different mathematical models, each weighting various factors differently. I'm no expert at reading these models, but the NAM seems to show one narrow line coming in midday, and the next line much later forming atop or even east of OKC. I think this forecast is complex enough to make any firm predictions really tough. If we do get a line through early AND it "beats up" the atmosphere enough, it might limit how strong the *next* line can get. The key fuel is unstable air, primed for lifting by heat, so if a bunch of storms come through and stabilizes it, there goes your "fuel." But it doesn't preclude rain.

The complexity here is that the first round of storms may not "beat up" the atmosphere enough to *prevent* stronger storms later. Really hard to say with certainty in this dynamic and very likely why SPC hasn't been more aggressive with their outlooks.