April 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[C_M_25]

I don’t know about the rest of you all but

I’m sick and tired of this dang wind!!!! This has been the worst spring in quite a few years for my allergies.

[TheTravellers]

I don’t know about the rest of you all but

I’m sick and tired of this dang wind!!!! This has been the worst spring in quite a few years for my allergies.

[Bill Robertson]

^ Me too!

[SEMIweather]

The wind is like this every April in OKC. Don’t worry, it’ll calm down just in time for the humidity to kick in and make us wish that June through August were our windy months lol.

[kukblue1]

Here we go already with the space between May 1st and May 15th being very active. We better start a May discussion group soon. SMH People will never learn will they.

[Anonymous.]

Models this morning are continuing a trend to move the majority of meaningful weekend rainfall to the southern parts of the state. We will still have the cooler air - the front is currently across NW/W OK and moving ESE.

[jn1780]

Here we go already with the space between May 1st and May 15th being very active. We better start a May discussion group soon. SMH People will never learn will they.

Or we can just wait until next late next week. Unless SPC starts hinting at something 6 days out again.

[kukblue1]

Or we can just wait until next late next week. Unless SPC starts hinting at something 6 days out again.

From SPC: High pressure
will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but
return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around
Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over
the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for
most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or
beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles.

SO CLOSE ENOUGH IT'S GOING TO BE AN OUTBREAK.

[kukblue1]

Hold on here we go. SPC slight risk day 7. The hype train is going to be fully going. We're going to have tornadoes and they're going to be between 4:00 and 6:00. What's that story about the boy that called wolf? Seriously I'm starting to even get that way with all this.

[SEMIweather]

Catch me not getting into specifics with any of this until we’re within range of the convection allowing models (a wise idea in general, but especially so given how Monday’s event unfolded), but yes the general pattern looks favorable in terms of severe weather potential for the foreseeable future (shocker for the Southern Plains in late April/early May, I know) so I would expect that something will eventually happen in that regard.

[Anonymous.]

Rain chances for this weekend continue to get sadder for OKC.

[bison34]

Rinse and repeat.

[kukblue1]

Good set up could be a 3 day event.. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. April 25-27. However we have had 4 other events that didn't pan out at all we shall see.

[C_M_25]

Good set up could be a 3 day event.. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. April 25-27. However we have had 4 other events that didn't pan out at all we shall see.

This is a common pattern. Usually the atmosphere really starts ramping up in potency in the last week or so of April and definitely the first half of May. Sure, they may not pan out but historical data would suggest that moving into the next 3-4 weeks, things tend to pan out.

[BG918]

Looks like most of the rain is staying south of the Red River today. Too bad, this is the kind of steady rainfall we need this time of year.

Looking ahead the next rain chances statewide start Wednesday into Friday with multiple rounds of rain/thunderstorms possible. The active pattern should continue into the following week.

[kukblue1]

Looks like most of the rain is staying south of the Red River today. Too bad, this is the kind of steady rainfall we need this time of year.

Looking ahead the next rain chances statewide start Wednesday into Friday with multiple rounds of rain/thunderstorms possible. The active pattern should continue into the following week.

Even today was kind of a bust for what they were calling for last night less than 24 hours before the event. JS

[kukblue1]

SPC seems to be keeping the wording a bit lighter this time. Kind of surprised they don't have a risk for Saturday as that looks like a really good day for storms. Maybe they have learned their lesson? Anyway things are going to massively change but dryline is going to come in move east retreat back west at night move east. Thursday far western Oklahoma, Friday eastern Oklahoma, Saturday western/central Oklahoma, Sunday eastern Oklahoma. Where is the dryline going to sets up is the key and of course won't know that until morning of the event but all 4 days have a chance of storms in the state of Oklahoma.

[LakeEffect]

Saturday has been added to SPC's list... currently, portions of Oklahoma have risk for at least 5 days this week, Tuesday - Saturday. Central Oklahoma is included in Wednesday - Saturday.

[kukblue1]

Saturday has been added to SPC's list... currently, portions of Oklahoma have risk for at least 5 days this week, Tuesday - Saturday. Central Oklahoma is included in Wednesday - Saturday.

Too me Saturday looks the best. I do think there are going to be enhanced risks areas added. Maybe for all 3 days. If I had to pick one it would probably be Saturday.

[SEMIweather]

I would agree that Saturday looks most favorable for severe weather at the moment. Regardless, it is looking to be a very stormy period starting Wednesday and continuing through at least the end of the weekend. Would think the weekend system should probably be strong enough to usher in a stable airmass behind it, but storm chances could continue on into next week if that isn’t the case.

[kukblue1]

And the Local TV Mets are off and rolling. IT'S ONLY MONDAY. We have tornado maps, and hail maps and rain maps. UGH it's ONLY MONDAY.

[SEMIweather]

Thinking there will be three main chances for convection in this pattern. First, would expect some elevated hailers in the vicinity of the Metro starting tomorrow morning as a warm front stalls to our south. Still too far out for exact details, but it appears there is the potential for repeated rounds of elevated convection until the front eventually lifts to our north tomorrow evening. Second, would expect a significant severe threat in NW Oklahoma/SW Kansas on Thursday Afternoon/Evening as the initial disturbance moves into the area. This convection will then look to arrive in the Metro near the diurnal minimum on Friday Morning, which should result in a reduced (but nonzero) severe weather potential relative to points northwest. Convection should move to our east by midday Friday resulting in pleasant conditions on Friday Afternoon/Evening. Lastly, another strong disturbance should move into the area during the afternoon/evening hours on Saturday. This is the one that I feel has the highest probability of resulting in a significant severe weather event for the Metro, but we are still ~ 108 hours out, so I'll leave it at that for now.

[kukblue1]

So far out. SPC for Saturday: The synoptic pattern depicted by much of the extended-range
guidance is suggestive of an active severe thunderstorm episode
along/ahead of the dryline, though some guidance (notably recent
runs of the ECMWF) suggest potential for early development across
parts of OK/north TX, which could complicate the scenario by late
afternoon/evening

SPC For Thursday: Coverage of the severe-thunderstorm threat remains somewhat
uncertain, but a couple intense supercells are possible by Thursday
evening near the dryline from western KS into western OK and the
TX/OK Panhandles.

In other words. There may be storms we don't know check back 24 hours before the event. I will say though Saturday likely will go enhanced.

[SoonerDave]

So, chances are:
Tomorrow AM
Friday AM
Saturday PM

Close at all?

[SEMIweather]

As of right now, I would say:

7 a.m. Wednesday - 1 p.m. Wednesday
10 p.m. Wednesday - 4 a.m. Thursday (low confidence)
10 p.m. Thursday - 7 a.m. Friday
4 p.m. Saturday - 1 a.m. Sunday

With generally increasing severe potential as we go along. But still very much subject to change.

I do feel fairly confident that tomorrow’s severe potential will largely be limited to elevated hailers, and that Thursday’s severe potential will peak to our west. I feel even more confident that the Friday afternoon/evening event will occur well to our east. Still concerned about Saturday’s high-end potential but suspect that a lot of uncertainty will remain until Friday Morning, at which point the convection-allowing models will come into range and we’ll have a good idea of the Thursday system’s effect on moisture return.