April 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[kukblue1]

What kills me and I have watched 9,5,and 4 tonight is the fact they start talking about what time the storm is going to hit the metro. It's still 4 days a away and to be saying things like it will hit the metro between 10-11 or around midnight drives me crazy given that's it's still 4 days out. I'm not saying they are wrong it could happen but this far out to be given specific times. Heck we don't even know if there will be storms cap might build in.

[SoonerDave]

What kills me and I have watched 9,5,and 4 tonight is the fact they start talking about what time the storm is going to hit the metro. It's still 4 days a away and to be saying things like it will hit the metro between 10-11 or around midnight drives me crazy given that's it's still 4 days out. I'm not saying they are wrong it could happen but this far out to be given specific times. Heck we don't even know if there will be storms cap might build in.

This *right here* is what drives me nuts. There's essentially *zero* scientific basis to make that granular a prediction *four days* ahead of the event. That's when the "j'accuse" of hype comes in full bore. And it's among the primary reasons I come here for general forecast information sans hype. That, plus an occasional glimpse at Tropical Tidbits, and the SPC, and that's good enough,

[kukblue1]

Can we say overnight Squall line with a strong cold front for central Oklahoma that will clean out the atmosphere and no storms the rest of the week? I'm sure it'll change again

[jn1780]

We will see what the models say tomorrow. But, the squall line and the late evening metro timing. In the local TV world, if it doesn't have a major impact on the metro, they don't care about the rest of the state.

[Bunty]

Can we say overnight Squall line with a strong cold front for central Oklahoma that will clean out the atmosphere and no storms the rest of the week? I'm sure it'll change again

The recent north winds already cleaned up the air. It was dirty in central Oklahoma, apparently from intended burns. The wind is now out of the south and the air is still clean and dry with very blue skies.

Regional Air Quality Report: https://map.purpleair.com/1/mAQI/a10...36.364/-97.297

[kukblue1]

Will there be clouds all day? Do rain showers form limiting instability? Will there be a cap? Is the slight Northward trend going to continue? System slowing down? So many question as of late Friday night. It could be huge event it could be a bust event. Stay tuned

[damonsmuz]

Here's what the NWS sent out this evening:

The greatest uncertainty for Monday’s system continues to be with respect to timing:
The latest guidance continues to suggest a large spread in timing (e.g. 12Z NAM is significantly faster than the 12Z GFS). Usually, with these closed upper-level lows, the slower solution tends to be favored.
A faster solution would result in initial development near the 100th meridian (Oklahoma/Texas state line) late afternoon/early evening with storms moving eastward during the evening.
A slower solution would result in initial development in the Texas panhandle, which would advance eastward into Oklahoma and western north Texas late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning.
Both solutions result in the potential for significant severe weather, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes (i.e., even if primary timing is overnight, there will be a risk of significant severe weather).

[SoonerDave]

SPC seems to be favoring a slowing of the overall system late Monday into very early Tuesday.

While all modes of severe weather remain possible, including tornadoes, there definitely seems to be a "texturing" of the language in the forecast toward a significant hail event. The tenor of the forecast seems to focus on an area of particular interest from SW OK running NNE through central KS and into Nebraska.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

[SoonerDave]

Inadvertent duplicate, sorry. Deleted.

[kukblue1]

With this Cap will the Metro or anyone in the state see a storm? Starting to question that to be honest. I'm sure it's going to change again but that is where we stand as of Saturday evening

[C_M_25]

Yeah, models are indicating one heck of a cap in place. Looks like we’ll need mid to upper 80’s to break it. I think if the sun is out all day, that probably won’t be too insurmountable; however, looks like low level dewpoints will be very close to actual temps so I wouldn’t be surprised if we have a low level blanket of clouds that keeps us from heating up. Could ultimately be nothing. I’m sure this will change as we get closer as the cap seems a little extreme at the moment.

[C_M_25]

Yeah…starting to feel like this will be a nonevent. That cap is one of the bigger ones I’ve seen.

[C_M_25]

Yeah…starting to feel like this will be a nonevent. That cap is one of the bigger ones I’ve seen.

[kukblue1]

So to recap 6 days ago we were 30% risk only that only happen one time last year that turned into high risk day down to it might rain for an hour. There are some hints something in far SW Oklahoma might get going but I wouldn't hold my breath

[educator1953]

So, is it going to be a stormy afternoon tomorrow or what?

[C_M_25]

I would say that it’s probably not going to be stormy UNLESS we see the temps gets north of 85 deg or so. Things could get interesting if that’s the case. Also, need to watch to see how strong the warm air inversion really comes in tomorrow. It’s possible that the models are overestimating it. It does seem to be a bit dramatic at the moment. Check back tomorrow morning and maybe sometime after lunch as I bet a special sounding is sent up around that time.

[okatty]

Working in the yard and feeling the HEAT today!

[SoonerDave]

SPC continues to hedge a bit on tomorrow, narrowing and moving back the enhanced risk area to the west. The new area mimics the earlier discussion, focusing on a region from SW OK NNE to the KS border. Definite mention is made of the strong cap expected tomorrow, but the hedging in the *other* direction is evident in the qualifier in the forecast text saying they may need to alter that enhanced risk area yet again. Right now, the focus seems to be on the overnight period.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[PoliSciGuy]

Sounds like any storms we get here in the metro will come after dark/overnight https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1779569231434318236

[MagzOK]

Again, the hype machine a week out. The cap will keep a lid on everything here severe-wise leaving just general rain and thunderstorms overnight Monday perhaps. I swear they just need to stick to a 5 or 7-day forecast and give details for the first two days then generalize the rest. For example on Sunday, give a detailed forecast for Monday and Tuesday, then generalize the rest of it. Then on Monday, detail Tuesday and Wednesday, then generalize the rest. Some guys are already calling for severe weather this Friday afternoon. Mike Morgan and his 7 ...... +4 day forecast. KOCO's "extended" 10 day. Man they just can't live without the drama. it's all under the pretense of "we do it so you're prepared." If ANY model shows anything that could bring drama they just throw it in there. Just put a rain chance percentage on that 11-day until 2 days before. They could've just not been detailed about tomorrow until yesterday and they would've seen it was going to be a non event, but no lets put the fear of God in people that really don't know and follow them like disciples. Just crazy. Sorry for the rant, just sick and tired of these weasels.

I don't listen to it, but almost everyone at my office talks about the weather forecasts all week -- Moms stressed out about what they're going to do with their kids baseball games -- a week out!

That being said, I do appreciate whole-heartedly the live reporting during actual events. As much as the Payne drama is almost too much to handle, he really knows his stuff as it's unfolding. Just wish they'd cool it on the week-out doomsday predictions.

[Bunty]

Working in the yard and feeling the HEAT today!

It got up to 93 at my weather station. It was the hottest April 14 since 2012.

This afternoon, I had to turn on the cooling for the first time this year. The thermostat didn't work to turn it on until I pressed the reset button.

[C_M_25]

Again, the hype machine a week out. The cap will keep a lid on everything here severe-wise leaving just general rain and thunderstorms overnight Monday perhaps. I swear they just need to stick to a 5 or 7-day forecast and give details for the first two days then generalize the rest. For example on Sunday, give a detailed forecast for Monday and Tuesday, then generalize the rest of it. Then on Monday, detail Tuesday and Wednesday, then generalize the rest. Some guys are already calling for severe weather this Friday afternoon. Mike Morgan and his 7 ...... +4 day forecast. KOCO's "extended" 10 day. Man they just can't live without the drama. it's all under the pretense of "we do it so you're prepared." If ANY model shows anything that could bring drama they just throw it in there. Just put a rain chance percentage on that 11-day until 2 days before. They could've just not been detailed about tomorrow until yesterday and they would've seen it was going to be a non event, but no lets put the fear of God in people that really don't know and follow them like disciples. Just crazy. Sorry for the rant, just sick and tired of these weasels.

I don't listen to it, but almost everyone at my office talks about the weather forecasts all week -- Moms stressed out about what they're going to do with their kids baseball games -- a week out!

That being said, I do appreciate whole-heartedly the live reporting during actual events. As much as the Payne drama is almost too much to handle, he really knows his stuff as it's unfolding. Just wish they'd cool it on the week-out doomsday predictions.

TBF, the models were hinting at something quite prolific setting up, and they were fairly consistent up until the last couple of days. At that point, they started hinting at a more profound cap being in place. Given the setup that it was looking like (and still might be), I think it was definitely worth bringing it to people’s attention. You want people to be prepared with a plan rather than wait till the day before an event.

Btw, we’re still a day in front of this. There is going to be some crazy instability in the atmosphere. If the cap doesn’t come in as strong as the models say, we could still get some fairly strong storms develop. Need to wait and watch for the sounding in the morning and possibly the afternoon.

[jn1780]

If the system was a tad bit faster, it would be a whole different story.

[SoonerDave]

SPC has removed the enhanced risk area from Oklahoma with its current Day 1 Convective Outlook, leaving the region in a "Slight Risk" category. The enhanced risk area is now focused on the triple-point area in central Kansas into Nebraska.

The discussion does highlight continued uncertainty about the environment for severe development this afternoon/evening, and essentially echoes some of the discussion here: a very strong cap is in place, but if something does develop and break the cap, it will very likely be severe.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[SoonerDave]

DANG IT another inadvertent duplicate. Sorry.