April 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[Teo9969]

I was out in Calumet and El Reno today and while it was definitely colder than I'd associate, the air felt heavier out there....maybe it's just cause I'm a city boy.

Anyway, I hope it's not too bad.

[Anonymous.]

I know it's OKCtalk, but what about for Muskogee tonight? I'm traveling that way for work today and staying overnight.

That area has better chances of rotating supercells, so increased tornado threat. And the same hail threat in OKC applies to there (and basically anywhere where storms develop).

[Anonymous.]

Towers are going up now from near Watonga and S of Weatherford. NWS may try to place a SVR Watch for these earlier cells from about I-35 and points N. Then come in with a TOR for the southern area later this afternoon. Also wouldn't be surprised to just see only tornado watches from here on out.

[king183]

Is there a predicted ETA for the metro area?

[SEMIweather]

It certainly feels muggy enough for a good severe weather threat to me. We see it time and again as we start to approach peak severe weather season here, surface heating is not the be-all and end-all when we have strong southerly winds transporting in rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Could it be a limiting factor in the tornado threat, sure, but I don’t think anyone is calling for a major tornado threat for the OKC Metro other than a certain TV meteorologist who is notorious for overhyping severe weather events. And somewhat counterintuitively, the lack of surface heating and correspondingly narrow T/TD spreads will lead to lower cloud bases which could actually make it easier for tornadoes to form. Anyways, regardless of how the tornado threat pans out, a significant hail threat for the Metro seems fairly probable at this point in time given the outcomes that the high-resolution models are depicting.

[SEMIweather]

Is there a predicted ETA for the metro area?

Thinking 5-7 p.m. as of right now. Storms should be screaming to the NE at 50-60 mph so there may not be a ton of advance warning. But for the same reason, not expecting a long-duration threat to the Metro. (We will possibly have some wraparound showers/storms overnight as the cold front pushes through, but certainly not expecting any severe weather with that round.)

[SoonerDave]

Looks like dewpoints at or near the Red River are around 68 while greater central OK is closer to 65 or so. Not a huge difference but in this environment might be just enough for a threshold for the difference in where things form and/or get stronger.

[SoonerDave]

If I'm reading it correctly, the HRRR is showing a well organized line of activity in central OK around 6-7 PM. I'd think the strength of the individual storms might be *somewhat* mitigated if they converge into a squall line (QLCS) rather than stay isolated, which I think is often where the big hail originates.

[SEMIweather]

Tornado Watch is coming shortly for the entire Metro.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0322.html

[SEMIweather]

Watch has officially been issued. Robust large hail probabilities.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0065.html

[Anonymous.]

30% probability of at least 1 EF2+ tornado.
90% probability of 10 events of hail greater than 2".

[soonerguru]

30% probability of at least 1 EF2+ tornado.
90% probability of 10 events of hail greater than 2".

Ugh

[PhiAlpha]

^ I’m convinced you can “feel” when it’s going to be a big severe weather day and today doesn’t have that feel

Same. The heat, humidity and general feel just aren't there. Of course not that I've said it...I'm sure I'll be wrong lol.

[C_M_25]

Strange that we’re not seeing anything firing up right now. I noticed the air feels cooler. Wonder if the outflow boundaries from that cluster of storms to the north wiped out any potential for us?

[Teo9969]

KFOR future radar shows the metro getting next to nothing. Everything will fire up just south of Norman before moving NE.

[LakeEffect]

Same. The heat, humidity and general feel just aren't there. Of course not that I've said it...I'm sure I'll be wrong lol.

Well, for reference, we hit 85 on May 20, 2013 and we're at 79 today, so it's not that far off... (NOT SAYING THIS IS THE SAME TYPE OF DAY)

[yukong]

KFOR future radar shows the metro getting next to nothing. Everything will fire up just south of Norman before moving NE.

Now now...Mike Morgan said this was the worst threat since May of 2013.

[stratosphere]

Well, for reference, we hit 85 on May 20, 2013 and we're at 79 today, so it's not that far off... (NOT SAYING THIS IS THE SAME TYPE OF DAY)

Channel 9 is showing 75 currently. I went for a walk in my neighborhood after getting home today and noticed the skies were clearing a bit and things started to feel more like a severe weather day than earlier with the clouds. And by that i mean i was sweating a lot during my walk. For the record i dont think this is a big event type of day for OKC and i hope that i am correct.

[SEMIweather]

Initiation is happening very gradually at the moment, but I would expect that the showers currently along US-183 from Cordell to Snyder will eventually be what targets the Metro.

[Anonymous.]

^ Yep some towers are breaking through now. It is difficult to see everything with the low cloud deck and haze in the lower atmosphere, but it looks like storms will be developing all across SW into C OK during the next hour.

[jn1780]

The Vernon storm looks like it will eventually make its way to the metro area.

Edit: I say that, but then a new scan shows new storms ahead of that one building.

[C_M_25]

Lightly raining here. Kinda cool air. I don’t feel like this is happening. There’s no initiation down here. Think the outflows from the earlier storms wiped it out.

[SEMIweather]

The Vernon storm looks like it will eventually make its way to the metro area.

Edit: I say that, but then a new scan shows new storms ahead of that one building.

The storm mode is looking to be very messy, but you can see that the entire area of convection continues to slowly intensify. Several areas of lightning are starting to be picked up as well.

[SoonerDave]

Looks like a marginally better organized but also more linear band of storms building up from just NW of Lawton to possibly just SW of the Mustang/Yukon area. I'd have to infer a more linear setup tends to mitigate the risk for the bigger hail, but I guess we will just watch how it develops. Moving rapidly NE.

[SEMIweather]

Everything appears to be splitting OKC proper at the moment. Will have to see if anything develops in the gap to the SE of the current convection. Also possible that a storm could become dominant and take a right turn towards OKC, but there doesn't appear to be a strong candidate for that at this time.