January 2024 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

Starting thread now since remainder of 2023 is basically non-eventful. Saturday looks fantastic, NYE and NYD the cold air returns.

So for January there is a few storms in the jetstream that appear they will take southern tracks. This is usually needed to produce winter storms across the southern Plains. Obviously confidence is low until a few days before the event, but we can still ballpark the arrival of the lows.

First storm looks moderately strong and will need to be watched for the weekend around the 5th. At this time it looks like rain/snow mix for OKC.

Second storm looks very strong and would be impacting the area around the 10th. At this time looks like all winter precipitation for OKC.

[Anonymous.]

It won't let me edit the OP, but models showing a clipper-type system flying through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Impacts look insignificant, but could see some light snow showers.

[BG918]

Potentially very active couple weeks coming up. Not all winter storms but the threat is definitely there with this jet stream placement.

[C_M_25]

That system on the 9th looks to have shifted north setting up the dreaded dry slot for us. Hope that thing takes a more southerly track. Still a ways out.

[C_M_25]

The GFS is being very bullish on a massive snow storm on the 9th. It's currently trending a nice pocket of snow estimated at 17 inches somewhere in NW to West-Central Oklahoma. I'm sure that shifts around a bit as it was predicting us to be dry-slotted last night with the main low up in kansas somewhere. Regardless, it's something to keep an eye on.

[Bunty]

The GFS is being very bullish on a massive snow storm on the 9th. It's currently trending a nice pocket of snow estimated at 17 inches somewhere in NW to West-Central Oklahoma. I'm sure that shifts around a bit as it was predicting us to be dry-slotted last night with the main low up in kansas somewhere. Regardless, it's something to keep an eye on.

Whether it's rain or snow it always tends to start out overblown for the amounts.

[BG918]

The GFS is being very bullish on a massive snow storm on the 9th. It's currently trending a nice pocket of snow estimated at 17 inches somewhere in NW to West-Central Oklahoma. I'm sure that shifts around a bit as it was predicting us to be dry-slotted last night with the main low up in kansas somewhere. Regardless, it's something to keep an eye on.

The CMC model wants to bring more snow into OK this weekend while the GFS shows all rain with snow mainly in KS. Either way that storm should be a quick mover before the "main event" next week.

[C_M_25]

Yeah these models are bouncing around pretty good. Struggling to narrow in on an answer this far out. Multiple models in agreement that the dry slot could make this event next week a non factor. We’ll just have to see what happens.

[C_M_25]

Looks like the models are honing in on a strong jet stream from the northwest which is cutting off the southwesterly flow that would bring us moisture. Looks like our fate for this system hinges on how strongly the northwest jet is and whether the southwesterly flow could sneak some moisture in.

[C_M_25]

Ugh. Dry slot for the win on all the next storm systems coming through. Maybe a bit of snow this weekend but negligible accumulations. Still a ways out though for forecasting.

[Anonymous.]

Maybe some freezing fog developing by Wednesday morning.

Next solid rain chance is Thursday night into Friday. But at this time it does not look significant for OKC. Snow should remain in PH area. Maybe some wrap-around flurries late Friday night in C OK.




Next storm is slated for Monday night into Tuesday. Looks like a pretty strong system. Dry-slot impacts across SW and C OK. Heavy rain E and snow NW. Shift in track will need to be monitored as we get closer.

[BG918]

GFS rainfall and snowfall forecasts for the Friday storm



Way too early but this is the snowfall forecast for next week's storm - right now most snow stays in Kansas but a shift south would bring significant snow to the OKC-Tulsa corridor

[Bill Robertson]

Way too early but this is the snowfall forecast for next week's storm - right now most snow stays in Kansas but a shift south would bring significant snow to the OKC-Tulsa corridor

Stay north, stay north. stay north. Or just be warmer, that would work.

[chssooner]

Man, El Nino is leaving OKC high and dry.

[LakeEffect]

Man, El Nino is leaving OKC high and dry.

Source?

During the last 60 days, OKC's departure from normal is almost null... https://mesonet.org/weather/rainfall?ref=1208 Things are just fine.

[jn1780]

Oklahoma is kind of in between the El Nino 'battlegrounds'. It has been very much noticeable up north though.

Graphic pretty much matches past couple of months for Oklahoma: Average

[C_M_25]

The track of this storm is going to be really critical. Still some uncertainty.

Regardless, this could be a pretty big snow storm somewhere in northern Oklahoma.

[SEMIweather]

January 12th-15th is the timeframe to really keep a close eye on for snow potential in OKC, IMO.

[C_M_25]

Yeah that’s looking like a powerful system too. GFS is struggling with temps though. It’s at least looking the most promising.

We’re right on that boundary between warm air and cold air. Glad my face isn’t the one on tv trying to forecast these systems lol.

[SEMIweather]

Yeah. The reason I think next weekend looks more favorable is that it appears to have the potential to be a true arctic blast. We’ll see if we can get a favorable storm track along with that.

Monday Night looks like decent odds of a rain —> snow transition, but temperatures seem likely to stay fairly marginal so I’m wondering if that event will end up being similar to the 01/24/23 winter storm, where the Metro picked up 1-3” of snow but almost none of it actually stuck to the roads.

[C_M_25]

Love how the GFS has completely wiped out next weekends storm in this latest model run with a dry slot. I’m sure this thing will flip flop a lot on that storm as we go through the week.

[BG918]

OK skirting the line between heavy snow and cold rain with the Tuesday storm. A more southerly track could make a big impact, especially for the more northern counties and Tulsa

[C_M_25]

The GFS and NAM are in agreement that this upcoming system is not going to dive far enough south for us to get some snow out of this. The CMC is still bullish, but I’m not super stoked when it’s just one model showing it. Kinda looking like nonevent at the moment sadly. Next weekends storm is looking like a carbon copy of this one too.

[Anonymous.]

Yes. The next few systems look like this past one. Quick shot of rain for OKC, then dry-slotted for remainder of the storm. However, we will be hit with bone-chilling temps by next weekend. Looks like we may see some single digit lows.

[BG918]

Looks like OKC gets dry slotted Tuesday. Most of the rainfall will be in E OK with some wet snow possible in the far northern counties

Next weekends storm looking more promising but will watch models this week. Bitter cold Arctic air will follow that storm, possibly some of the coldest temps since Feb 2021