OKC Real Estate Market

[oklip955]

I've been looking online at property in other states, some have a note of 21/2 to 4% buyers premium on them. I guess now they are wanting buyers to pay some of the commission. Anyone know more about this?? or if this will happen here??

[Dob Hooligan]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/30/econo...ber/index.html Have we crashed?

Pending home sales just hit their lowest level in history.

In October, US pending home sales fell 1.5% putting sales down 6.6% over the last year.

This also marks the 23rd STRAIGHT decline in US pending home sales.

To put this in perspective, pending home sales are more than 10% BELOW what they were in 2010.

They are also ~3% below the pandemic low when the global economy was in a lockdown.

All as mortgage demand is at its lowest levels since 1994.

The housing market is coming to a complete halt.

New home sales were up from last year.

I don't think the housing market is coming to a complete halt.

I think an overheated market is cooling off a bit.

[Rover]

New home sales were up from last year.

I don't think the housing market is coming to a complete halt.

I think an overheated market is cooling off a bit.

When money is free and mortgages easy to qualify for then the market soars... and is part of the inflation problem. It is inevitable that home sales had to wane in order to curb inflation. This is a correction period.

[April in the Plaza]

I've been looking online at property in other states, some have a note of 21/2 to 4% buyers premium on them. I guess now they are wanting buyers to pay some of the commission. Anyone know more about this?? or if this will happen here??

It might be in response to the NAR lawsuit. The standard commission model is, at least arguably, in doubt at this point.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/11/05/h...fee/index.html

[Richard at Remax]

~2300 Pending in OKC MLS this morning. That's a very low number. Actives are well over 5,000.

[Dob Hooligan]

~2300 Pending in OKC MLS this morning. That's a very low number. Actives are well over 5,000.

Afraid I have no idea what you mean. Could you possibly explain further? Thanks.

[ChrisHayes]

Afraid I have no idea what you mean. Could you possibly explain further? Thanks.

A pending home sale is one where the paperwork is being filed but the contract hasn't been signed. At least I'm 90% certain that's what it means. Actives are the number of homes for sale in the market. Be it new or existing homes.

[Dob Hooligan]

A pending home sale is one where the paperwork is being filed but the contract hasn't been signed. At least I'm 90% certain that's what it means. Actives are the number of homes for sale in the market. Be it new or existing homes.

That is helpful. but, I am also looking for seasonal and historical comparison data. Say, for instance, "2300 pending is 15% lower than 2022". That looks bad. But what if the full sentence is "which was 65% higher than 2019"? Now how does it look? Also, how do the pending's traditionally look between Thanksgiving and the end of the year?

[Richard at Remax]

A pending home sale is one where the paperwork is being filed but the contract hasn't been signed. At least I'm 90% certain that's what it means. Actives are the number of homes for sale in the market. Be it new or existing homes.

Pending, or under contract, means all contracts have been signed. Inspections, appraisals, ect still have yet to be completed.

[Dob Hooligan]

Pending, or under contract, means all contracts have been signed. Inspections, appraisals, ect still have yet to be completed.

I understand that, sir. My question is how does these numbers compare with historical and seasonal averages?

[Richard at Remax]

Let's go back and compare Nov 2023 to Nov 2021.

In November 2023, there were 2160 sales.
In November 2021, there were 2967 sales.
A 27% decrease.

In November 2023, the average sold price was $274,227
In November 2021, the average sold price was $262,232
A 4% increase.

In November 2023, the average Days on Market was 44.
In November 2021, the average Days on Market was 29.
A 34% increase.

In November 2023, the # of Active listings in that month was 13,657.
In November 2021, the # of Active listings in that month was 9,461.
A 30% increase.

The Inventory is the average of how long it would take to sell the current Active homes if no new properties were added to the market.
In November 2023, we had 6.3 months of inventory.
In November 2021, we had 3.4 months of inventory.
A 46% increase.

January 2023-November 2023, total sales. 27,569
January 2021-November 2021, total sales. 33,279
A 17% decrease.

Lastly,
November 16, 2023 interest rates. ~7.44%
November 10, 2021 interest rates. ~3.38%
A ~54% increase.

[Dob Hooligan]

Let's go back and compare Nov 2023 to Nov 2021.

In November 2023, there were 2160 sales.
In November 2021, there were 2967 sales.
A 27% decrease.

In November 2023, the average sold price was $274,227
In November 2021, the average sold price was $262,232
A 4% increase.

In November 2023, the average Days on Market was 44.
In November 2021, the average Days on Market was 29.
A 34% increase.

In November 2023, the # of Active listings in that month was 13,657.
In November 2021, the # of Active listings in that month was 9,461.
A 30% increase.

The Inventory is the average of how long it would take to sell the current Active homes if no new properties were added to the market.
In November 2023, we had 6.3 months of inventory.
In November 2021, we had 3.4 months of inventory.
A 46% increase.

January 2023-November 2023, total sales. 27,569
January 2021-November 2021, total sales. 33,279
A 17% decrease.

Lastly,
November 16, 2023 interest rates. ~7.44%
November 10, 2021 interest rates. ~3.38%
A ~54% increase.

Thank you for the helpful numbers. Very good.

My question now is that 2021 might appear to be a pandemic bounce back year, so how we would compare 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 YTD?

[Richard at Remax]

Nov 2023 vs Nov 2019

In November 2023, there were 2160 sales.
In November 2019, there were 2221 sales.
A 3% decrease.

In November 2023, the average sold price was $274,227
In November 2019, the average sold price was $201,935
A 26% increase.

In November 2023, the average Days on Market was 44.
In November 2019, the average Days on Market was 49.
A 10% increase.

In November 2023, the # of Active listings in that month was 13,657.
In November 2019, the # of Active listings in that month was 12,659.
A 7% increase.

The Inventory is the average of how long it would take to sell the current Active homes if no new properties were added to the market.
In November 2023, we had 6.3 months of inventory.
In November 2019, we had 6.0 months of inventory.
A 5% increase.

January 2023-November 2023, total sales. 27,569
January 2019-November 2019, total sales. 27,448
A .4% increase.

Lastly,
November 16, 2023 interest rates. ~7.44%
November 10, 2021 interest rates. ~3.75%
A ~50% increase.

[TheTravellers]

Interesting, so except for price and interest rate, everything is pretty much the same, with the difference being pretty negligible in every other category...

[Richard at Remax]

Interesting, so except for price and interest rate, everything is pretty much the same, with the difference being pretty negligible in every other category...

Yep. In November 2022 the average price was over $281K. So we dropped year over year by ~2.5%. Just a sign of things coming back to earth.

[Shortsyeararound]

Yep. In November 2022 the average price was over $281K. So we dropped year over year by ~2.5%. Just a sign of things coming back to earth.

How much do we owe you for all the work/data you did/gave us?

[Dob Hooligan]

Nov 2023 vs Nov 2019

In November 2023, there were 2160 sales.
In November 2019, there were 2221 sales.
A 3% decrease.

In November 2023, the average sold price was $274,227
In November 2019, the average sold price was $201,935
A 26% increase.

In November 2023, the average Days on Market was 44.
In November 2019, the average Days on Market was 49.
A 10% increase.

In November 2023, the # of Active listings in that month was 13,657.
In November 2019, the # of Active listings in that month was 12,659.
A 7% increase.

The Inventory is the average of how long it would take to sell the current Active homes if no new properties were added to the market.
In November 2023, we had 6.3 months of inventory.
In November 2019, we had 6.0 months of inventory.
A 5% increase.

January 2023-November 2023, total sales. 27,569
January 2019-November 2019, total sales. 27,448
A .4% increase.

Lastly,
November 16, 2023 interest rates. ~7.44%
November 10, 2021 interest rates. ~3.75%
A ~50% increase.

Great stuff. Thanks for all the hard work!

[OKCRealtor]

Great news for all with rates falling quickly after Fed signals 3 cuts looking into next year. We are way off the peaks in October and activity picking up already. Demand, sales & prices should begin to go back up from here. Next year should be a good year and whenever we get back into the 5's probably have another mini boom.

[Canoe]

Great news for all with rates falling quickly after Fed signals 3 cuts looking into next year. We are way off the peaks in October and activity picking up already. Demand, sales & prices should begin to go back up from here. Next year should be a good year and whenever we get back into the 5's probably have another mini boom.

A mini boom across all prices ranges or confined to certain ranges? I am guessing 300k and below will do well, but I do not have the experience to predict the effects.

[soonerguru]

Great news for all with rates falling quickly after Fed signals 3 cuts looking into next year. We are way off the peaks in October and activity picking up already. Demand, sales & prices should begin to go back up from here. Next year should be a good year and whenever we get back into the 5's probably have another mini boom.

Question: if we have another "mini boom," won't this just further drive up prices and lead to increased inflation?

[soonergolfer]

Great news for all with rates falling quickly after Fed signals 3 cuts looking into next year. We are way off the peaks in October and activity picking up already. Demand, sales & prices should begin to go back up from here. Next year should be a good year and whenever we get back into the 5's probably have another mini boom.

Interesting that the fed is thinking cuts next year when they are not even close to the 2% inflation goal. I guess the new norm is gonna be 4-5% for a while.

[OKCRealtor]

A mini boom across all prices ranges or confined to certain ranges? I am guessing 300k and below will do well, but I do not have the experience to predict the effects.

I would think it would be across the board, we still have a supply/demand imbalance when it comes to existing inventory so certainly anything below the median price points should go up since there is more competition & demand. Prices on the whole have pulled back last few months, it's only natural they'll bounce back as rates fall.

Question: if we have another "mini boom," won't this just further drive up prices and lead to increased inflation?

Prices should go up as rates fall naturally but I don't think that in and of itself will lead to increased inflation. Supposedly rents will be coming down (so they've been saying for nearly 2 years) and that in & of itself should decrease inflation. Prices have pulled back again this fall/early winter so far exactly like last year but next year with rates falling in the back half of the year any price gains from spring/summer should hold & go up as rates trend down next couple years. My guess is we see 10-15% price appreciation over the next 2 years dependent upon the end level of rates.

Interesting that the fed is thinking cuts next year when they are not even close to the 2% inflation goal. I guess the new norm is gonna be 4-5% for a while.

CPI was 3.1% in November and core PCE is also down sharply. Powell said in his presser after last weeks meeting they recognize they need to cut before getting to 2% so they aren't too far behind the curve and doing more unnecessary damage to the economy. Fed was way behind the curve in 2021 leaving rates way too low for far too long and same thing here just to the downside. We will be back in the 2's here very shortly paving the way for cuts to begin.

[oktxatty]

Anecdotal info: Homes in my development in NW OKC which is split between PC and Deer Creek schools, were built 15-20 years ago, ranged in listing price in 2023 from $380k to $525k, and the ones listed this year, with one overpriced exception, were all under contract and closed between 45-60 days from listing date selling within 1-3% of original listing price, Two have been listed since November 1 @ $425k and $450k and are already under contract.

[warreng88]

Just wanted to add to the discussion:

Tomorrow we are closing on a new home purchase in the Crestwood neighborhood of OKC (Bound by NW 23rd, 16th, May and Villa). We are paying 20% down to avoid PMI and are locking in at 7% for 30 years. We have lived in our current house for 16 years, paid it off three years ago and will keep it as a rental. Our plan is to wait until rates drop a little and then refinance on a 15 year. We did the same thing when we bought our house in 2007. We locked in at 6.875% for 30 years then refinanced in 2011 at 4.5% for 15 years and our payment only went up $20 per month. I am hopeful that we can do the same thing in 3-5 years, but we can afford the higher payment. I have always heard marry the house, date the rate.

[OKCRealtor]

Just wanted to add to the discussion:

Tomorrow we are closing on a new home purchase in the Crestwood neighborhood of OKC (Bound by NW 23rd, 16th, May and Villa). We are paying 20% down to avoid PMI and are locking in at 7% for 30 years. We have lived in our current house for 16 years, paid it off three years ago and will keep it as a rental. Our plan is to wait until rates drop a little and then refinance on a 15 year. We did the same thing when we bought our house in 2007. We locked in at 6.875% for 30 years then refinanced in 2011 at 4.5% for 15 years and our payment only went up $20 per month. I am hopeful that we can do the same thing in 3-5 years, but we can afford the higher payment. I have always heard marry the house, date the rate.

This is the way, nice job!