October 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[LakeEffect]

No changes to speak of before October starts, so might as well start the new thread. Colder air currently forecast to come in the middle of the first week of October, possibly wet and possible severe.

Also, El Nino is officially on, so that may play into the coming months... One NOAA model even predicts a "Super El Nino" (FWIW). https://www.washingtonpost.com/weath...recast-winter/

[kukblue1]

https://x.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/...558360822?s=20 Not buying it. I hope metro can get into the 40s but not ready to get excited yet.

[SEMIweather]

Yeah, I'm thinking that the cold front next weekend will push us back to average, so highs in the 70's and lows in the 50's.

[SEMIweather]

We are still 4-5 days out, so there is time for things to change, but it currently looks like the main severe weather threat would focus to our west on Tuesday, and to our southeast on Wednesday.

[chssooner]

Man, mother nature really hates OKC, in terms of rain.

[SEMIweather]

Still going to get plenty of rain from this (my over/under for OKC is 1.50"), but as of right now the impacts to OKC look to be centered on the overnight Tuesday to early afternoon Wednesday timeframe which does not favor severe weather.

[BG918]

2-3”+ forecasted for parts of central and eastern OK this Wednesday and Thursday. Amazing fall weather will follow for at least the next week - highs in the 70’s and lows in the 50’s (some areas in northern OK will drop into the 40’s)

[SEMIweather]

Current rainfall forecast, per NWS Norman. Crossing my fingers that this pans out! As of right now, this looks to mainly fall in two waves - the first between 1 a.m. and 7 a.m. Wednesday, then a relative lull, then a second heavier wave between 1 p.m. Wednesday and 1 a.m. Thursday.

[Roger S]

I hope it's right.... Carter County is a powder keg.... I actually heard a tarantula moving through the grass before I saw it the other day.

[BG918]

The GFS model has more rainfall across Oklahoma than the EURO. There will be convective t-storms with this system that will drop heavier rains in certain areas, and possibly some "training" storms so I would expect some localized areas to see 3-4"+ especially across SE OK

GFS


EURO

[chssooner]

Looks like rain is, again, shifting away from central OKC.

[Brett]

The cold front for the weekend will be strong enough to make it to Dallas for the OU/Texas game. A definite godsend for the fans at the State Fair of Texas/Cotton Bowl.

[SEMIweather]

The cold front for the weekend will be strong enough to make it to Dallas for the OU/Texas game. A definite godsend for the fans at the State Fair of Texas/Cotton Bowl.

I am excited to make my first chili of the season Saturday Morning before OU/Texas. Perfect timing for it.

[kukblue1]

Wednesday looks like an afternoon event for the Metro 2-5ish. Heavy rain possible. Hail storms possible. Low Tornado but not zero.

[SEMIweather]

Tomorrow afternoon is going to be a close call for the Metro, and I think it will ultimately depend on how things evolve overnight. If we get more overnight convection than what's currently forecast, the focal point for tomorrow afternoon's event will likely be to our southeast. But if all of the overnight convection stays to our north, I would expect us to be under the gun. For the time being I would say that we're on the northern edge of the highest threat area. Looks like our best severe weather chances will be sometime between 3:00 p.m. - 7:00 p.m. with significant hail and flash flooding as the main threats.

[kukblue1]

Tomorrow afternoon is going to be a close call for the Metro, and I think it will ultimately depend on how things evolve overnight. If we get more overnight convection than what's currently forecast, the focal point for tomorrow afternoon's event will likely be to our southeast. But if all of the overnight convection stays to our north, I would expect us to be under the gun. For the time being I would say that we're on the northern edge of the highest threat area. Looks like our best severe weather chances will be sometime between 3:00 p.m. - 7:00 p.m. with significant hail and flash flooding as the main threats.

Some interesting sounds from 5-6 tomorrow right along I-40. I'm sure it will change again it's 3 pm now on Tuesday but tomorrow looks interesting

[kukblue1]

I-40 South still seems to be under the gun for 10/4/23. Looks like 5-6 time frame still.

[SEMIweather]

Feels like mid-May outside this morning. I would lean towards the Metro having a robust severe weather threat between approximately 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. today. Higher chances as you go south.

[Anonymous.]

Latest HRRR shows the most training storms being just along I-40 and points south.

[chssooner]

It was great watching, again, the area to the NE of OKC get dumped on. When is it supposed to rain in OKC? Or is it shifting away from us?

[Anonymous.]

SVR Watch is out for W OK, this does not include OKC (at this time). We should continue to see development of storms across SW and W OK that fill in as they head ENE.

Impact of storms into OKC is likely to be around 5-6pm. Heavy rain will be the primary threat, some embedded hail pockets are possible, but the storms will likely be clustered by the time of reaching C OK, so large hail threat will decrease unless some cells stay isolated.

[SoonerDave]

Hey anon, I spotted a radar with some storms north of Chickasha but couldn't tell much beyond that. Just heavy rain or a hailer headed into OKC?

[LakeEffect]

OKC now under the severe watch until 10:00 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 705 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC005-013-017-019-023-027-029-049-051-061-063-067-069-077-085-
087-091-095-099-101-107-109-111-121-123-125-127-133-137-
050300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0705.231004T1945Z-231005T0300Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATOKA BRYAN CANADIAN
CARTER CHOCTAW CLEVELAND
COAL GARVIN GRADY
HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LATIMER LOVE
MARSHALL MCCLAIN MCINTOSH
MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PITTSBURG
PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA
SEMINOLE STEPHENS
$$

[Anonymous.]

Watch has been extended [actually just a new one covering C and SE OK]. Numerous isolated new cells going up just W and SW of OKC. These will have hail threat and be impacting the city between 4 and 5pm now.

[Timshel]

It almost looks like this first round is splitting and the largest amount of rain may mostly miss central OKC (I’ll be happy to be wrong) - which is quite funny given the recent commentary in this thread!