September 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[foodiefan]

. . .3/4" in my gauge! Meridian/NW 36th area.

[Anonymous.]

That persistent drizzle overnight across C OK really helped out with soaking the ground. Similar system will swing through Thursday into Friday, but [right now] looks to be more focused on SW OK.

Looking ahead, still see above normal temperatures coming to close out the back half of the month. The moisture will likely keep actual air temps from getting too out of hand, but humidity will make it feel worse.

[Bellaboo]

1.5 inch in Yukon.

[BG918]

Rain chances increasing again Wed night into Thursday, best chances across western OK but most of the state should see some rainfall. Another chance across mostly eastern OK on Saturday.

The unsettled weather pattern should stick around for next couple weeks with rain/storm chances every few days. Moderate temps in the 70’s this week and in the 80’s next week. Possibly some 90’s around 9/20-22.

[Anonymous.]

This round of rain is looking more and more abysmal for C OK. Still likely to see random bouts of light rain showers off and on over the next 36 hours beginning tonight.

[BG918]

Yep the system is moving more south than originally forecasted. Good rains for Texas though. There is another weak system that moves through late Friday into Saturday that will have some showers and maybe a few thunderstorms.

Next week is one to watch. There could be multiple rounds of heavy rain through the following week. The exact bulls eye of heaviest rain is still unknown but some areas could pick up 3-4”

[SEMIweather]

Yep the system is moving more south than originally forecasted. Good rains for Texas though. There is another weak system that moves through late Friday into Saturday that will have some showers and maybe a few thunderstorms.

Next week is one to watch. There could be multiple rounds of heavy rain through the following week. The exact bulls eye of heaviest rain is still unknown but some areas could pick up 3-4”

Was going to say, looks like we are entering a springlike pattern starting around the 19th or so. Going to be interesting.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Was going to say, looks like we are entering a springlike pattern starting around the 19th or so. Going to be interesting.

The state fair is here so the rain comes!

[chssooner]

Yep the system is moving more south than originally forecasted. Good rains for Texas though. There is another weak system that moves through late Friday into Saturday that will have some showers and maybe a few thunderstorms.

Next week is one to watch. There could be multiple rounds of heavy rain through the following week. The exact bulls eye of heaviest rain is still unknown but some areas could pick up 3-4”

Wherever the bullseye is, we know it won't be OKC. OKC has missed the bullseye for rain 98 times out of the last 100.

[SEMIweather]

Wherever the bullseye is, we know it won't be OKC. OKC has missed the bullseye for rain 98 times out of the last 100.

Well...that would make sense, given that a bullseye is only about 3% of a dartboard. And also, OKC absolutely hit the rainfall bullseye back in early July.

[BG918]

Well...that would make sense, given that a bullseye is only about 3% of a dartboard. And also, OKC absolutely hit the rainfall bullseye back in early July.

Don't let the recent dry weather fool you, this has been a fantastic summer for rainfall across most of the state. There are still some dry areas along the Red River, north-central OK and parts of SE OK but overall we're in much better shape than most years heading into our second wettest period of the year after May/June.

I don't know that I've ever seen a summer rainfall map as evenly distributed from east to west. 16"+ in the Panhandle...in the summer...unbelievable!

[SEMIweather]

We will possibly get some spotty showers over the next 24 hours or so, but the higher chances will continue to focus to our west. Even if rain does occur, precipitation amounts should be fairly minimal. Our six day stretch of mostly cloudy conditions will come to an end tomorrow evening, as clouds should rapidly clear out starting around sunset. This will set up two of the nicest weather days of the entire year on Sunday and Monday, with high temperatures in the mid 80's, low humidity, plentiful sunshine, and light winds. Thereafter, we will enter into a weather pattern that will be very reminiscent of springtime, with strong S/SE winds bringing in Gulf moisture to the area. A dryline will set up somewhere in the vicinity of Western Oklahoma or the Panhandles, and a large trough over the Western U.S. will eject numerous shortwaves into the area, potentially allowing for repeated rounds of organized convection starting as early as Tuesday. Too early for specifics, but this timeframe definitely deserves close attention IMO.

[kukblue1]

I would expect to see Risk areas highlighted by the SPC for the end of next week by the end of this weekend.

[BG918]

Stormy week on tap across Oklahoma. Forecasted rainfall totals through next weekend:

[kukblue1]

I would expect to see Risk areas highlighted by the SPC for the end of next week by the end of this weekend.

Well I didn't see Tuesday a being the day

[BG918]

Severe risk on Tuesday

[Anonymous.]

Could be some locally heavy rain from the storms that develop on Tuesday. Exact areas is still too difficult to call, but I-35 corridor and points NE are favored early this evening.

[C_M_25]

I presume the storms this morning limit our severe weather threat later today?

[MagzOK]

I presume the storms this morning limit our severe weather threat later today?

Well it really depends on how quickly they move out and if the atmosphere can destabilize afterward.

[LakeEffect]

From the Storm Prediction Center: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Convective and severe potential should ramp up this afternoon as the
boundary layer diurnally/diabatically destabilizes south of the
morning clouds/convection (across parts of southern OK and north
TX), southwest of it atop a strongly heated/mixed boundary layer
near the dryline, and perhaps behind it over western/central OK late
this afternoon. The latter potential is more uncertain and
conditional, given time needed for both direct heating/
destabilization and warm advection in the recovering low-level air
mass immediately preceding the second mid/upper-level perturbation.

Where convection can develop over northwest TX and OK, especially
near any dryline/outflow intersection, supercells are possible amid
strong veering of winds with height in low/middle levels, yielding
well-curved and favorably enlarged hodographs. Development appears
best focused near the dryline over the southwestern OK/northwest TX
area, with sustained heating and MLCINH erosion likely, but less
low-level shear. Conversely, coverage is more uncertain in and
north of the backed-flow regime, though hodographs will be more
favorable. As such, too much mesoscale uncertainty lingers to
assign a more-specific, focused area of higher unconditional
probabilities at this time.

[SEMIweather]

The convection-allowing models are all over the place with regards to possible solutions for late this afternoon/early this evening, which is fairly typical for events with cloud debris and subtle forcing. Would expect NWS Norman to launch a special sounding at 1 p.m. in order to get a better understanding of what the atmosphere is going to look like. Best guess is that storm coverage will be relatively isolated, but any storm that does form will pose a threat for significant severe hail.

[Anonymous.]

Clearing occurring here in OKC, but short-range models only redevelop strong storms across SW OK. Perhaps a rogue cell could fire W of OKC along I-40... But I would lean towards OKC being done.

[SEMIweather]

Satellite trends have me leaning towards re-initiation NW of OKC between 5-7 p.m. with storms then moving through the Metro around 7-10 p.m. but this will ultimately be a nowcast situation. If storms do form, still looking at large hail as the main threat (isolated significant/2"+ hail not out of the question). Secondary wind threat, especially if upscale growth starts to occur before storms exit the area.

[Anonymous.]

Here is MD for upcoming SVR Watch for most of NW TX into SW OK and nudging into C OK.

Mesoscale Discussion 2162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Areas affected...northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 192036Z - 192130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is expected over the
next 2-3 hours. Very large hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible with these storms. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely
this afternoon or early evening, but timing is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating has allowed temperatures to warm into
the upper 80s/low 90s across the OK/TX Panhandles into western
OK/northwest TX. Persistent low-level warm/moist advection also has
maintained dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s while aiding in
erosion of convective inhibition. Increasing/deepening cumulus is
evident in visible satellite imagery over the TX Panhandle/South
Plains vicinity, suggesting subtle large-scale ascent is spreading
east across the region. Additional cumulus development beneath
weakening cap has also been noted over western north TX.

A zone of moderate instability (to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE)
overlapping with effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will
support organized convection, with a mix of supercells and clusters
anticipated. Forecast soundings show enlarged, curved low-level
hodographs becoming straight/elongated above 2-3 km. This wind
profile, coupled with midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km, suggest very
large hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) will be possible,
even if storms are somewhat elevated due to lingering low-level
inhibition (which increases with eastward extent and also with time
into the evening). Isolated strong gusts also will be possible. A
severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed late this afternoon
or early evening, but given subtle forcing mechanisms and lingering
inhibition, timing is a bit uncertain.

..Leitman/Hart.. 09/19/2023

[SEMIweather]

MCD is out for basically all portions of the state to the south and west of OKC with a severe thunderstorm watch likely to be issued at some point in the near future. I still feel that initiation is possible to the north of I-40, but it is admittedly more uncertain than to the south of I-40. If initiation is limited to points south of I-40, storms will likely make a run at southern portions of the Metro between 7-10 p.m. but chances will decrease rapidly the further north you are. If initiation does also occur to the north of I-40, what I said in post #48 is still valid.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2162.html