August 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[chssooner]

Shawnee gets most of the rain. SE OKC missed out by 10 miles on much needed rain.

[Anonymous.]

Another decent chance at getting some rain late tonight into Tuesday morning. Very similar location and style as what we saw this morning.

[BG918]

Chipping away at this map from north to south. It couldn't come at a better time with the recent heat, and in one what typically is one of the driest months of the year

[Bunty]

That's quite a sharp contrast in Oklahoma City area from 0 to 24. Shows well how the switch in the jet stream to northwesterly flow and the cold masses that get caught up in it affected Oklahoma. I don't think the grass is staying green in southwest Oklahoma and in the far south.

[BG918]

Another overnight storm complex will move across the state tonight. Right now models are favoring east-central OK for the highest rainfall totals

HRRR at 4 am Tuesday

[BoulderSooner]

really nice hard rain in Edmond early this morning

[Pete]

What did everyone get in their rain gauges?

I know I got over an inch.

[MagzOK]

What did everyone get in their rain gauges?

I know I got over an inch.

1.33" here in the Oak Tree area.

[okatty]

1.4 ish NW OKC

[chssooner]

Diddly down near Draper.

[BG918]

Last round of overnight storms will move across mainly northern OK early Wednesday. Another chance of storms returns early Saturday. Drier and hot next week with storm chances later in the week.

[Bellaboo]

.57 in Yukon.

[Bunty]

.85" on east side of Stillwater. Two locations on the southwest side had 1.36". They benefitted from overhead development of storms out ahead of the main part.

[BG918]

HRRR trying to develop severe storms in east-central OK around 5-6 pm. Higher severe threat closer to Arkansas

[Bunty]

Pictured, an isolated storm located halfway between Stillwater and Tulsa at 8 pm, 8/9. Picture taken in Stillwater. It was gone by 9:30 pm. Stronger storms were in northeast OK and AR as well as along the Red River centered near Durant.

We missed a soaking Wednesday morning from the Kansas storms moving east this time and bypassing us. What came out of the Texas panhandle didn't amount to much for most people, only .03" here.

[BG918]

^ Yeah the cap was too strong for anything to really get going in NE OK.

Overnight storm complexes will again be moving across the northern half of OK Friday, Saturday and possibly Sunday mornings. Overall chances don't like as good as last weekend though.

[BoulderSooner]

the state is now (as of tuesday the 8th (date was released today) only 12.81% in drought and only 1.6% in level D3 (extreme drought)

1 year ago these levels were 99.33% in drought and 48.83 in extreme drought ...

that is pretty amazing ..


also over 60% of the state is not even " Abnormally Dry"

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Curre...onitor.aspx?OK

[SEMIweather]

Unfortunately looking more likely that the heat dome moves back overhead starting around the middle of next week.

[BG918]

Unfortunately looking more likely that the heat dome moves back overhead starting around the middle of next week.

Some models are still hinting that we'll be on the edge of "the dome" like this past week which allows for NW flow. This will favor the northern counties over the weekend and early next week but the rest of the state could see relief toward next weekend when the high shifts again

Tropics have been really quiet but usually start to heat up as we get closer to September. Always worth watching the Gulf for systems that could impact our weather as they come up through Texas or in some cases from the Eastern Pacific

[LakeEffect]

Tropics have been really quiet but usually start to heat up as we get closer to September. Always worth watching the Gulf for systems that could impact our weather as they come up through Texas or in some cases from the Eastern Pacific

NOAA did update its 2023 hurricane forecast to increase the number and intensity of forecasted storms today...

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/no...20or%20greater).

"NOAA’s update to the 2023 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater)."

[whorton]

One thing to hate about OKC, the late summer heat dome.

[Mountaingoat]

NOAA did update its 2023 hurricane forecast to increase the number and intensity of forecasted storms today...

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/no...20or%20greater).

"NOAA’s update to the 2023 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater)."

This suprised me, between the Sahara dust (which l understand helps supress hurricane formation) and El Nino (which usually provides stronger upper level winds to sheer off hurricane growth).

[SEMIweather]

Could see some isolated pulse storms develop along a retreating warm front this afternoon. Coverage should be low, but if anything forms, it could produce marginally severe winds as the core collapses. Overnight storms will likely focus to the NE of the Metro once again.

Tomorrow evening, and especially Sunday evening should feature better thunderstorm chances as storm complexes will have a decent shot at moving in from the NW. Again, marginally severe winds would likely be the main hazard.

A seasonably strong cold front will move through overnight Sunday, so Monday and Tuesday should be quite nice. Thereafter, the ridge quickly builds back in and we may well set a new high temperature mark for the year sometime between the 18th and the 23rd (current mark to beat is 103F). After that, looks like the ridge should break down again towards the end of the month, potentially opening the door to some more seasonably cool temperatures. But at that point, we're talking 2-3 weeks out from today, so it could easily end up changing.

[Anonymous.]

^ right on.

Small cluster of storms trying to get going along TX/OK border, short-range models show them trying to come down I-40 and mostly collapsing at dark before reaching C OK.

[SEMIweather]

Ended up being a fairly impressive cluster of storms which tracked all the way from Clinton to Perry (and is still severe warned up there). Couple of sig severe wind gusts out in West Central OK. As far as OKC goes, relatively disorganized storms are weakening fairly rapidly as they approach the Metro, though we may still get some light precipitation amounts. Would expect these to dissipate over the next few hours.

Given the robust convective coverage relative to expectations today, would not be surprised if a leftover boundary in the vicinity of I-40 ended up triggering another round of storms late tomorrow afternoon. Thinking that the existing D2 Slight Risk in the Panhandles might get extended to the SE, though the overall severe threat still looks to focus just NW of the Metro tomorrow.