These storm complexes are incredibly difficult to forecast. And you need to keep in mind that the TV mets are just showing computer model forecasts or perhaps a conglomerate of several. These models obviously differ wildly from run-to-run and model-to-model. Watching a 10pm news cast where a local met is showing 1 model and expecting to see that amount in your Stillwater backyard is just not realistic.

Look for trends, especially once the storms begin to take shape - even when they're hundreds of miles away. You can often see the overall development pattern and storm movement once these MCSes begin to form. Then from there, look ahead and check out the environment they are moving into. There is no perfect science for any one person's location.