July 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[soonergolfer]

I was right to some extent about this major rain event being a bust. Stillwater area only got around .15" rain overnight. NWS predicted 1to 2 in. overnight. For today, it had been 2 to 3" but now revised to 3/4 to 1". For tonight, new rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

As usual, it's always amazing how some places get a lot more rain. Anyway, my prediction of a bust wasn't as widespread as I thought it would be, certainly not on the same scale as about two weeks ago when the NWS predicted the Texas heatwave would dramatically surge across the rest of the Oklahoma with highs up to around 108. I was sure skeptical about that. As it turned out, highs were only around 98. Much of Oklahoma still hasn't gone over 100, including my thermometer.

Has weather gotten yet harder to forecast accurately, possibly due to climate change, or meteorologists less competent? Or too much reliance on computer projections and models by TV weather people for the drama? Emily Sutton showed Stillwater is going to get over 3" for the second highest amount in the state. As usual, I'll believe it when I see it.

Looks pretty accurate to me. I don’t see what you’re complaining about. Maybe you should ask Emily to make her forecasted amounts to the hundredth of an inch so your bet against them even more.

[Bunty]

Looks pretty accurate to me. I don’t see what you’re complaining about. Maybe you should ask Emily to make her forecasted amounts to the hundredth of an inch so your bet against them even more.

The map simply proves me part right. North central Oklahoma got little more than sprinkles just as I predicted, or in other words, a BUST! The atmosphere there must have been too stable as the main storm system entered it.

You must not be an Emily Sutton fan. She does use a computer model to project to the hundredth inch along with Mike Morgan. I doubt they will ever give up looking ridiculous doing that. No. 1 McAlester is projected to get 4". I didn't bother remembering exact amounts.

I'm still an Emily Sutton fan. She kills doing "Over the Rainbow".

[BG918]

The map simply proves me part right. North central Oklahoma got little more than sprinkles just as I predicted, or in other words, a BUST! The atmosphere there must have been too stable as the main storm system entered it.

You must not be an Emily Sutton fan. She does use a computer model to project to the hundredth inch along with Mike Morgan. I doubt they will ever give up looking ridiculous doing that. No. 1 McAlester is projected to get 4". I didn't bother remembering exact amounts.

Your area should do well with the next MCS and again Saturday. Most of northern OK should end up with at least 2"+ before the end of the weekend

[soonerguru]

The map simply proves me part right. North central Oklahoma got little more than sprinkles just as I predicted, or in other words, a BUST! The atmosphere there must have been too stable as the main storm system entered it.

You must not be an Emily Sutton fan. She does use a computer model to project to the hundredth inch along with Mike Morgan. I doubt they will ever give up looking ridiculous doing that. No. 1 McAlester is projected to get 4". I didn't bother remembering exact amounts.

I'm still an Emily Sutton fan. She kills doing "Over the Rainbow".

Wow! She is so talented and lovely.

[Bill Robertson]

Wow! She is so talented and lovely.

Yes......yes she is.