June 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

Forecast models are attempting to develop one last small MCS tonight coming out of CO and into the TX PH. Best guess on track puts it just missing C OK to the SW.

[gjl]

That would be fine with me if it misses OKC Especially NW OKC. My yard is so water logged that when I walk across it water oozes out of the ground.

[kukblue1]

https://twitter.com/ConvChronicles/s...326759942?s=20 Then non hyped events always seem to be the ones that produce the most. JS

[SEMIweather]

Today might have been the supercell of the year forming in the far west Panhandle, then tracking SE through the entirety of the TX Panhandle before re-emerging in far SW Oklahoma. 6+ hours of severe weather reports.

[kukblue1]

SPC now has slight risk for the Northern half of Oklahoma on Thursday. Looking at morning computer runs would not be shocked if that gets expanded farther south. And the reason I said no hype is because News 9 last night at 10:00 p.m. weather only had a 20% chance and David didn't even talk about Thursday. Flipped over to channel 4 and Morgan really didn't talk about it either but he had a 50% chance.

[SEMIweather]

12z HRRR looking frisky for tomorrow evening.

[Anonymous.]

12z HRRR looking frisky for tomorrow evening.

Likely going to see SPC upgrade most of the state to Slight Risk for Thursday. Perhaps a corridor of Enhanced Risk out in W OK where storms would begin more isolated.

The common theme of these MCSes lately has been to start as supercells, then upscale into a cluster of storms with some remnant embedded supercell structure. This is going to be initial large hail threat, outside tornado threat, then emphasis on severe wind threat.

EDIT: Also going to note that SPC is outlining 15% probability of severe risk for Saturday evening across KS and into N OK. Latest model data also suggesting a southern expansion of this threat. So expect more of the same for Saturday.

[SEMIweather]

SPC going with a high-end Slight Risk for the Metro tomorrow. 5% tornado, 15% hatched hail/wind. Mentions a potential upgrade to Enhanced in the discussion.

[kukblue1]

Yep days that are not hyped up for a week are always the worst days

[C_M_25]

Eww. Summer is making a comeback next week, and it’s looking like the death ridge is going to try and push up into Oklahoma here in a couple of weeks.

[SEMIweather]

Seems like we will likely top out in the mid-upper 90's with this particular ridge as it should stay centered to our south. It is unfortunately looking to be a fairly humid heat due to the southeasterly flow, though. Texas is going to roast.

[kukblue1]

Pretty much pulling up Tornado soundings for anywhere I click in Western Oklahoma tomorrow evening. Let's hope they all gel together and are not individual storms

[SEMIweather]

90/65 T/TD spreads are not particularly ideal for tornadoes, fortunately. Would think tomorrow evening will be a significant wind threat for the Metro first and foremost, particularly as the storms should organize into some sort of QLCS by the time they reach the I-35 corridor.

[gjl]

But it looks like the overnight lows stay in the low 70s for at least the next 10 days. It's when the lows never dip below the 80s that it really gets oppressive.

[Bill Robertson]

Yep days that are not hyped up for a week are always the worst days

For once I actually hope you're right. Mike Morgan just predicted a 90% chance of strong storms tomorrow afternoon/evening with "strong winds" and "huge hail". Not much more hype than that. Even if he's pretty much the only one predicting such severe storms so far.

[gjl]

Ch 5 6:00 pm telecast predicted the storms to hit the metro tomorrow night around 9-10:00 PM

[kukblue1]

90/65 T/TD spreads are not particularly ideal for tornadoes, fortunately. Would think tomorrow evening will be a significant wind threat for the Metro first and foremost, particularly as the storms should organize into some sort of QLCS by the time they reach the I-35 corridor.

Agree something that needs to be watched closely tomorrow is the dew point temperature and the air temperature. If they're closer together say 83 and 70 we're going to have problems especially Western Oklahoma. For those wondering when you have a big spread between your temperature and dew point you get a higher cloud base. Typically much more hail. Much harder to get tornadoes with high cloud base

[kukblue1]

SPC went right for it with the moderate risk. I figured enhance at first and then moderate later but nope they went for it.

[Bunty]

SPC now has slight risk for the Northern half of Oklahoma on Thursday. Looking at morning computer runs would not be shocked if that gets expanded farther south. And the reason I said no hype is because News 9 last night at 10:00 p.m. weather only had a 20% chance and David didn't even talk about Thursday. Flipped over to channel 4 and Morgan really didn't talk about it either but he had a 50% chance.

Mike Morgan as of the latest of his weather has changed his mind and as always sensationalizes the weather too much. His worst sensational Thursday weather will likely take place south of OKC. I'm sure not complaining about it.

[C_M_25]

Ok, everyone should take a deep breath. Will there be storms? Yes. Will there be a tornado or two? Possibly? Is this going to be a major tornado outbreak (like some have been hyping for over a week now)? Not likely.

This is going to be a wind and hail maker for OKC. The biggest threat for the bad stuff is obviously out west, but those storms will line out as per usual for this time of year. I’m sure the supercell structure will be imbedded in the line and I wouldn’t be surprised if a remnant spin up or two happens in our area, but the impacts from those are pretty minimal. Just be aware storms will come in. They’ll be severe. There will be hail and wind. Possibly very large hail and high winds. Move your cars in the garage and take a deep breath.

Now, the models are interesting this morning. The high res NAM is forming a north and south line that essentially splits the city with some follow up smaller storms after the main event. The HRRR is also trying to do this a bit as well. If those large supercells fire in the southwest, their outflow boundaries could effectively eliminate the severe weather threat for okc. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I’m not holding my breath though for a major impact to the okc area at the moment though.

[SEMIweather]

I think this is a reasonably straightforward forecast. Tornado threat peaks in Western OK between 5-7 p.m. then an organized MCS will roll into OKC between 7-10 p.m. with a significant wind threat and a secondary threat of large hail and an isolated QLCS tornado. The hi-res models might jump around somewhat in their exact depictions of this event as the day progresses, but I would be very surprised if the general timeline/storm mode changes too much at this point.

[SoonerDave]

Lesson #1 for newcomers to OKC: Don't listen to Mike Morgan.

[Anonymous.]

Likely going to see SPC upgrade most of the state to Slight Risk for Thursday. Perhaps a corridor of Enhanced Risk out in W OK where storms would begin more isolated.

The common theme of these MCSes lately has been to start as supercells, then upscale into a cluster of storms with some remnant embedded supercell structure. This is going to be initial large hail threat, outside tornado threat, then emphasis on severe wind threat.

EDIT: Also going to note that SPC is outlining 15% probability of severe risk for Saturday evening across KS and into N OK. Latest model data also suggesting a southern expansion of this threat. So expect more of the same for Saturday.

Forecast still the same. Moderate Risk for W and C OK. Also as expected, SPC has expanded the Slight Risk for Saturday to include basically the entire state.

[jn1780]

Ok, everyone should take a deep breath. Will there be storms? Yes. Will there be a tornado or two? Possibly? Is this going to be a major tornado outbreak (like some have been hyping for over a week now)? Not likely.

This is going to be a wind and hail maker for OKC. The biggest threat for the bad stuff is obviously out west, but those storms will line out as per usual for this time of year. I’m sure the supercell structure will be imbedded in the line and I wouldn’t be surprised if a remnant spin up or two happens in our area, but the impacts from those are pretty minimal. Just be aware storms will come in. They’ll be severe. There will be hail and wind. Possibly very large hail and high winds. Move your cars in the garage and take a deep breath.

Now, the models are interesting this morning. The high res NAM is forming a north and south line that essentially splits the city with some follow up smaller storms after the main event. The HRRR is also trying to do this a bit as well. If those large supercells fire in the southwest, their outflow boundaries could effectively eliminate the severe weather threat for okc. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I’m not holding my breath though for a major impact to the okc area at the moment though.

I don't think anyone here is too concerned. Most are a little bit surprised that the models started trending toward more favorable for Severe storms in the past day.

[kukblue1]

The big thing for today is how high are the cloud bases are these storms surface based meaning the cloud deck is say below 3,000 ft. The other thing to look out for is are these storms separate. There are a few computer models that keep them separated Did anybody else notice there's a slight risk for Saturday now also.