May 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

Currently anyone east of the dryline has a shot at storms. Right now the cumulus field is expanding back to the NW and includes all of OKC metro. If this continues, the development zone could very well be directly over the city.

NWS has issued a flood watch for basically all of SW, SC, and C OK. This is from later this afternoon through the weekend.


Choose your fighter:

GEM puts heaviest rain across SW and C OK.
GFS & NAM place the heaviest rains across SC and SE OK.
HRRR places heaviest rain across SC and SE OK.

Later this afternoon into evening:

[C_M_25]

One thing is for sure, it feels like a very stormy day outside. “One of those days” if you will.

Weird that we’re not expecting much in north okc.

[Hollywood]

One thing is for sure, it feels like a very stormy day outside. “One of those days” if you will.

Weird that we’re not expecting much in north okc.

That's no lie. Just had to get out of my car and felt like I was baking in the parking lot.

[C_M_25]

So the latest HRRR run is showing a bigger line of storms north of I-40. It did the same yesterday and those failed to materialize. Looks like a predominantly hail threat?

[PoliSciGuy]

So the latest HRRR run is showing a bigger line of storms north of I-40. It did the same yesterday and those failed to materialize. Looks like a predominantly hail threat?

Wonder if the longer duration of afternoon heating makes those northern ones fire this time

[BG918]

Wonder if the longer duration of afternoon heating makes those northern ones fire this time

Hope so northern OK hasn't seen much if any rain this week, and is still in severe drought

[Anonymous.]

Severe Watch is out for entire central part of the state. OKC will be really close to development edge.

[baralheia]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0217.html

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
340 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest/Central/Northeast Oklahoma
Northwest Texas

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until
1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas and
southwest/central/northeast Oklahoma. Strong instability will
support robust updrafts capable of large hail. Damaging downbursts
are possible as well. Storms may grow upscale into a convective
line, which could also produce damaging wind gusts as it moves
southeastward.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south of Wichita
Falls TX to 30 miles west northwest of Tulsa OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 215...WW 216...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.

...Mosier

[Anonymous.]

Towers going up NNW of OKC. Should see these blow up and move SSE in clusters riding outflow boundaries.

[SoonerDave]

Radar I'm looking at shows small storms around Chickasha sliding up I-44 but kinda fading as they get closer to OKC.

[C_M_25]

The NAM is really backing off the rain for tomorrow. Hope that’s not correct as we really need some good rain.

[C_M_25]

Storm firing west of Guthrie looks like a solid thumper. Pretty good lightning show too. That thing blew up out of now where. Are we going to start to see development along that line?

[C_M_25]

The NAM looks interesting for tomorrow. It shows a cluster of storms that fires in southeastern ok that collapse as the big wave of rain moves in. Looks like the clouds outflow boundaries from those storms just obliterates the rain that is moving in at the same time. Will be interesting to see if that holds true (I hope it doesn’t).

[Bunty]

Storm firing west of Guthrie looks like a solid thumper. Pretty good lightning show too. That thing blew up out of no where. Are we going to start to see development along that line?

That storm didn't misbehave much upon its arrival to Stillwater. No high winds or hail. Just moderate to heavy rain with no annoyingly loud thunderclaps. Surely the most intense area missed me. Anyway, if there can be a good training effect, then the final rain amount might be able to go over 1 inch before it's over tonight.

[Bunty]

Interesting development. The storms didn't train by continuing to move ENE. Instead, they solidified into a solid line and switched direction south to head for OKC metro. And toward Tulsa, too. But aren't as strong as they had been.

[C_M_25]

The radar is certainly favoring last night’s NAM run. Will be really disappointing if we don’t see any rain today.

[BG918]

It looks like the storms today will set up in a linear format so some areas will see heavy rains while areas on either side see nothing. These are outer bands from the low still spinning in Texas that is slowly lifting north.

Forecast models showing a larger frontal boundary moving through at the end of next week that will likely have severe weather. Right now it looks more like an MCS-type event with a wind/hail threat and not tornadoes.

[okatty]

Came a FLOOD far NW OKC - 3 inches in my gauge with really strong winds and small hail.

[poe]

Came a FLOOD far NW OKC - 3 inches in my gauge with really strong winds and small hail.

Same! Power went out twice for a few minutes and both my new trees blew over (even with stakes).

[Bunty]

Heavy rain started as of 6:40 pm in Stillwater. Fortunately, only a "Special Weather Statement" out for it.

[C_M_25]

Phenomenal rain today. This will go a long way in filling up the area lakes and ponds….specifically Hefner.

[Pete]

Holy cow, my yard is already a jungle and with all this rain, not sure when I'm going to be able to cut it.

Nice problem to have!

[stratosphere]

Holy cow, my yard is already a jungle and with all this rain, not sure when I'm going to be able to cut it.

Nice problem to have!

Agreed. Our little rain gauge is full.

[BG918]

NW OK still lacking but lots of dry area have seen decent totals

[gjl]

3" in my rain gauge today. That makes 11" total at my location in the last 3 weeks. And supposed to be more to come tonight and tomorrow.