May 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[okatty]

Tennis ball size hail just south of the Red River - glad the severe risks shifted South! Got well over an inch of rain in far NW OKC.

[baralheia]

Ended up with just shy of 1¼" here on the southside. Very glad for the rain!

[kukblue1]

2.12 just east of Mustang Power plant for me. Oh and what you doing there HRRR for Saturday Evening. Too soon HRRR too soon.

[C_M_25]

Going to be some serious instability in the air just east of the city saturday night. Could be some very large storms if the cap breaks.

On another note, this season has been odd as it seems like we have seen the dry line set up east of the city a lot so far. wonder if that's the trend of the season or if we'll see it pull back to the west as we get a bit more into may?

[kukblue1]

HRRR going crazy for Saturday just south and east of the Metro. I'm Interested to see what SPC does for their day 2 outlook coming up. It's 10:41 am now.

[kukblue1]

Nam st has nothing for tomorrow it holds the cap.

[C_M_25]

HRRR going crazy for Saturday just south and east of the Metro. More Interested to see what SPC does for their day 2 outlook coming up. It's 10:41 am now.

Care to share a screenshot. As far as I know, the HRRR doesn’t look that far out in advance.

[Bill Robertson]

Care to share a screenshot. As far as I know, the HRRR doesn’t look that far out in advance.

HRRR goes out 48 hours on the 6s. 06Z, 12Z etc.

[kukblue1]

SPC went with slight risk for just a small part of Southern Oklahoma thru Texas with their 2 day outlook. Hail the big concern.

[kukblue1]

And now the Nam st is on board with storm After 8 pm for Southern Oklahoma. Looks like some big hail storms down by the red river might creep up to southern metro but right now a red river event.

[kukblue1]

Computer models still showing some big hailers in Southern Oklahoma/Red River tomorrow Wichita Fall/ Lawton to Gainesville/Ardmore around sun set tomorrow

[crimsoncrazy]

And now the Nam st is on board with storm After 8 pm for Southern Oklahoma. Looks like some big hail storms down by the red river might creep up to southern metro but right now a red river event.

Nam came on board but the HRRR shifted it down south.

[C_M_25]

The models are struggling again with this system today. The CAPE is crazy high but there just isn’t much convergence today. Will be interesting to see what happens.

[kukblue1]

Wichita falls seems to be the target area for a lot of the Storm chasers today anything could go between Norman and Dallas today

[Anonymous.]

Will have to watch for outflow storms ripping from south to north. But otherwise just hot and humid OKC saturday.

[C_M_25]

Man, what a humid day. Any other year and this would have been “one of those days.”

On that note, does anybody feel like this has been an odd spring so far?

[BG918]

GFS forecasted rainfall this week - best chances Wednesday and Saturday

[BG918]

Big differences between the different forecast models on rainfall amounts this week. This is an unsettled pattern with storm chances each day and then better/worse chances the next day based on where outflow boundaries set up and short wave impulses come through. Consider yourself lucky if you're able to get at least a couple inches.

[C_M_25]

It’s very strange that we’re a week into may and we have only had 1 or so traditional dry line set ups? Pretty wild…


Hopefully we can get some good gully washers through here.

[C_M_25]

This is looking like another year without much of a severe weather season. I’m not seeing anything on longer range models to indicate a traditional stormy pattern. Maybe that will change?

I know that as we move into late may and June, we get more northwesterly patterns with MCS’s and such. Those can bring some nice rains. We’re going to need it as the lakes are still really low.

[OkiePoke]

Death Ridge setting up after this Low tries to come through this evening/tomorrow. I think that means it will be quite warm over the next week or so w/ the High Pressure. Please correct me if this is incorrect.

[gjl]

Yesterday one of the local TV weather guys was predicting a large statewide rain event for this weekend with a potential of up to 4" of rain. He said there is a huge amount of moisture moving up from the Gulf.

[Anonymous.]

Still hot and humid next few days.

Could see some storm bubble up Wednesday afternoon, especially across E half of OK.

Best chance for OKC looks to be Thursday evening, with severe potential being there. Currently SPC has N/NW OK in Slight category with SIG marker. This zone extends just NW of the OKC metro. This will be dryline action, and I would not be surprised to see the area shift around a bit before Thursday.

[BoulderSooner]

Still hot and humid next few days.

Could see some storm bubble up Wednesday afternoon, especially across E half of OK.

Best chance for OKC looks to be Thursday evening, with severe potential being there. Currently SPC has N/NW OK in Slight category with SIG marker. This zone extends just NW of the OKC metro. This will be dryline action, and I would not be surprised to see the area shift around a bit before Thursday.

any thoughts on the broken arrow area for Friday Saturday and Sunday??

[kukblue1]

Keep a close eye on Thursday. SPC even updated their 3 day outlook for it.