The models are at a big time disagreement right now. The NAM seems to be bringing in more moisture in the upper levels and has us very close to breaking the cap. It’s also developing a much more refined MCS coming through tonight. The HRRR has no storms popping and much less moisture available in the upper levels.

The cap is quite strong though regardless of what model I’m looking at. Looks like we need to hit close to 90 deg today to break it.