April 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[C_M_25]

Folks, this is seriously not great right now. GFS shows almost no rain chances for north central oklahoma. As per usual, at least so far this year, the GFS is showing rain chances picking up 2+ weeks out; however, those have failed to materialize time and time again this year. We're so far into spring that the cold weather gardens are screwed unless you're out watering a bunch right now. I'm dreading summer...

[BG918]

Take your pick, neither looks very good this week. OKC mesonet station has only received 0.3" of rain this April and Tulsa 0.6". We should be at 2"+....

GFS rainfall chances this week


EURO rainfall chances this week

[kukblue1]

Well I was hoping for rain and storms on Wednesday but the cap looks way too strong now. Yesterday there were talks of a weak cap that could break today I don't see it breaking at all. I need rain

[Pete]

The way things are shaping up, this will have to be one of the driest Aprils on record.

Very, very bad start to the spring and summer.

[C_M_25]

West OKC only got 0.87 inches of rain in 2011. Was that a bad year? That’s the driest April per the Mesonet.

[BG918]

The entire state is in need of rainfall, even the SE. This April has been unusually dry

[SEMIweather]

Ten driest Aprils in OKC history, per the NWS climatology:

1) 1936 - 0.03"
2) 1989 - 0.17"
3) 2005 - 0.29"
T4) 1987 - 0.41"
T4) 1895 - 0.41"
6) 1971 - 0.62"
7) 1903 - 0.64"
8) 1961 - 0.73"
9) 1955 - 0.78"
10) 1950 - 0.85"

We are at 0.03" so far this April. Average rainfall in April since records have been kept is 3.26". Average over the last 30 years is 3.57".

[baralheia]

West OKC only got 0.87 inches of rain in 2011. Was that a bad year? That’s the driest April per the Mesonet.

I'm just about 4 miles due east of the airport and my weather station hasn't registered *any* rain at all this April. The last time we had measurable rainfall at my house was March 31st; year-to-date total is 6.74".

[Bunty]

I'm just about 4 miles due east of the airport and my weather station hasn't registered *any* rain at all this April. The last time we had measurable rainfall at my house was March 31st; year-to-date total is 6.74".

Then do you have any theory what is causing this unusual springtime drought? I've only had around 2.5" this year. The only good side of it is freedom from tornado outbreaks, so far. I've been free from big hailstorms, too. I stated one theory as to why, but it got deleted as trolling, misinformation, outrageous conspiracy nonsense, or whatever.

[Bunty]

West OKC only got 0.87 inches of rain in 2011. Was that a bad year? That’s the driest April per the Mesonet.

It was a bad year and the worst bad summer ever. Oldtimers had never before gotten through such a daily hot summer with 100s every day. Only Phoenix through the summer was possibly worse.

[gjl]

There's not much you can do about it. Fortunately i have a well for watering the yard and i would suggest cleaning your outside A/C condensing unit coils to get ready for the heat.

[C_M_25]

GFS is giving me some hope that we could see some rain next week.

[Anonymous.]

This giant storm that will be sweeping across the US the next few days will allow a glimmer of hope for NW flow action across the Plains next week.

Dryline could fire today, but storm would stay far west. But at this point literally anything falling out of the sky is welcome.

Wednesday for OKC looks like another low chance at dryline firing west of I-35. Then another low chance of a thin line of storms sweeping through late overnight.

[jn1780]

Then do you have any theory what is causing this unusual springtime drought? I've only had around 2.5" this year. The only good side of it is freedom from tornado outbreaks, so far. I've been free from big hailstorms, too. I stated one theory as to why, but it got deleted as trolling, misinformation, outrageous conspiracy nonsense, or whatever.

Medium term: We were in a El Nina pattern and now were in the early transition to El Nino pattern.

Side note: Climate is looked at in long term trends. One random cold rainy/snowy day or one random hot dry day is not enough data points to make any kind of scientific determination. There can be short term patterns occurring within longer term patterns.

[TheTravellers]

...
Side note: Climate is looked at in long term trends. One random cold rainy/snowy day or one random hot dry day is not enough data points to make any kind of scientific determination. There can be short term patterns occurring within longer term patterns.

Yep, weather vs. climate.

[BG918]

This giant storm that will be sweeping across the US the next few days will allow a glimmer of hope for NW flow action across the Plains next week.

Dryline could fire today, but storm would stay far west. But at this point literally anything falling out of the sky is welcome.

Wednesday for OKC looks like another low chance at dryline firing west of I-35. Then another low chance of a thin line of storms sweeping through late overnight.

Northwest flow usually means good rainfall for Oklahoma so let's keep our fingers crossed that happens

[kukblue1]

Namnst STORMS only one or two but storms. HRRR LOL nothing. I'm going with the Nothing burger again. Drought and Cap. Hope I'm wrong

[BG918]

Anyone taking bets on the cap holding tomorrow?

[C_M_25]

Anyone taking bets on the cap holding tomorrow?

I’m surprised to see the NAM is calling for the cap to break tomorrow. So are some of the other higher res models. The HRRR doesn’t go out for enough yet.

I’m surprised with how today felt leaving work. A bit more humid than anticipated. Throw in the wind and the heat, and it was really starting to feel like stormier weather. My gut says that we’ve been getting hot enough that I think we’ll have a solid chance to break the cap tomorrow even in partly-cloudy skies. The question will be whether we get storm initiation at all out in front of the dry line. I’m feeling more confident that the cold from will give us and MCS system tomorrow at a minimum, however.

[kukblue1]

I’m surprised to see the NAM is calling for the cap to break tomorrow. So are some of the other higher res models. The HRRR doesn’t go out for enough yet.

I’m surprised with how today felt leaving work. A bit more humid than anticipated. Throw in the wind and the heat, and it was really starting to feel like stormier weather. My gut says that we’ve been getting hot enough that I think we’ll have a solid chance to break the cap tomorrow even in partly-cloudy skies. The question will be whether we get storm initiation at all out in front of the dry line. I’m feeling more confident that the cold from will give us and MCS system tomorrow at a minimum, however.

HRRR run tonight was like NOPE NOTHING. Nam watch out. Which model wins?

[C_M_25]

The models are at a big time disagreement right now. The NAM seems to be bringing in more moisture in the upper levels and has us very close to breaking the cap. It’s also developing a much more refined MCS coming through tonight. The HRRR has no storms popping and much less moisture available in the upper levels.

The cap is quite strong though regardless of what model I’m looking at. Looks like we need to hit close to 90 deg today to break it.

[Anonymous.]

Conditional risk emphasized today with afternoon setup. Basically like we have had the last few weeks. Low chance of development, high chance of severity.

With full heating taking place across C OK currently, I would not be surprised to see SPC upgrade to Enhanced for hail and perhaps tornado parameters.

This is a day to keep an eye on the visible satellite imagery.

[kukblue1]

Is the HRRR coming on board with the NAM for storms near OKC? It's only one run but keep weather aware.

[SoonerDave]

Purely a layman, non-scientific observation, but just taking a stroll outside the house the air just doesn't seem to have that warm "edge" to it I normally associate with storms. Breezy, a little sticky, but the clouds seem.to.be.keeping things meh in the heat department

[BG918]

Purely a layman, non-scientific observation, but just taking a stroll outside the house the air just doesn't seem to have that warm "edge" to it I normally associate with storms. Breezy, a little sticky, but the clouds seem.to.be.keeping things meh in the heat department

Clouds have moved east, need temps to raise about 10 degrees for any chance