April 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[BG918]

I’m telling ya, this is a really strange spring so far. North to south moving storms…in mid-April. Craziness

Very strange system but some areas received some decent rainfall. Ready for spring storms already!!

[Anonymous.]

It will be interesting to see what SPC puts on the 4-8 day outlook in a few days. The storm coming through next weekend may have some potential.

The answer from SPC today is 15% Slight Risk for Friday. Basically I-35 corridor and east. Looks like maybe a low development chance with high impact.

[SEMIweather]

Friday is setting up as a classic conditional severe weather threat. Probably only a 15% chance of breaking the cap…but if we do get something, it’ll likely be big. Reminds me a lot of 04/29/2022 in that way (the cap held that day, but it was a very close call).

[kukblue1]

Cap too strong. Moisture return limited. The low over the Northern Gulf right now is keeping moisture down. That being all said it's only Wednesday and will change 4 more time at least by Friday. Also starting about the 20th look like an active pattern for the rest of the month.

[BG918]

Cap too strong. Moisture return limited. The low over the Northern Gulf right now is keeping moisture down. That being all said it's only Wednesday and will change 4 more time at least by Friday. Also starting about the 20th look like an active pattern for the rest of the month.

That same low and the system over TX last weekend has created near perfect spring-like weather over Oklahoma for the past several days. Highs in 70's, lows in the 50's and lower humidity with light winds - if it was like this all the time we likely wouldn't be able to afford to live here Ready for rainfall though we need every drop we can get during April-June..

[Anonymous.]

^ You got that right. This has been outstanding. Weather gods must have read this thread a couple weeks ago and decided to give us a break.

[kukblue1]

Wouldn't shock we if there isn't a drop a rain tomorrow in the whole state tomorrow. Best chance is probably Oklahoma/Kansas State Line.

[Anonymous.]

Yes, low chance with high impact.

Still way early, but next weekend looks spicy.

Friday 04/14/2023:

[SoonerDave]

Yes, low chance with high impact.

Still way early, but next weekend looks spicy.

Friday 04/14/2023:

Oh, c'mon, not stormy for the OU spring game....

[Anonymous.]

SPC has trimmed the Slight Risk for Friday to only be in extreme NC parts of the state.

[Libbymin]

In addition to having some lovely weather, it's nice to get a little bit of a break from some of the higher utility bills before it starts to get hot.

[kukblue1]

Next Thursday chance of storms from the SPC already. Wait today is only Friday right. I think at one time they never made outlooks available to the public probably should still be that way. Like really are we supposed to be preparing for something a week away that we all know will change the night of. Let's discuss

[Bill Robertson]

Next Thursday chance of storms from the SPC already. Wait today is only Friday right. I think at one time they never made outlooks available to the public probably should still be that way. Like really are we supposed to be preparing for something a week away that we all know will change the night of. Let's discuss

Yes more models and NOAA forecasts are available further out than a few years ago and way more so than say 20 years ago. I don't bother looking at anything more than 72 hours out because it's generally a waste of time. And I'm sure not going to discuss anything further out than that because there's a very high chance it'll be wrong.

[SoonerDave]

Next Thursday chance of storms from the SPC already. Wait today is only Friday right. I think at one time they never made outlooks available to the public probably should still be that way. Like really are we supposed to be preparing for something a week away that we all know will change the night of. Let's discuss

I agree, and I think a lot of the Mets who have participated here over the years do as well. The ones *not* generating hysteria on TV understand that those long range views are useful only in the most macro sense, eg "hey, there's a chance something may happen in a week," but.some TV types who are more interested in ratings than accuracy will slap them on a long range forecast and that's hardly how they're intended to be used. Last week they were putting a 15% SPC for today IIRC.
.

[C_M_25]

Half way through April and my rain gauge is less than 1/10th of an inch of rain. Considering normal for April is 3 inches, we’re trending horribly behind on rain. Let’s hope next week pans out.

In regards to the stuff on long range models. I feel like the Mets have been doing a pretty good job not overhyping stuff. Also, the GFS has been regularly overhyping storm system 1+ week out this year. I have seen this happen all month. You see signs of an active pattern evolving 10 days out but it just doesn’t happen.

[Pete]

^

We've also been averaging about 10 degrees above normal. Just after I replaced my frost-ravaged pansies, they are getting burned up in the heat.

Something better change before we hit summer otherwise we're going to have another year like the last, which was pretty horrific.

[chssooner]

Hopefully OKC can access some of that SE Oklahoma water, because we need it. Someone in OKC pissed off mother nature, and now she is withholding rain,

[Pete]

Lake Hefner is already looking low, with red dirt exposed everywhere but the dam.

[kukblue1]

I think there were more TV storms chasers than there were storms today. JS

[BG918]

^

We've also been averaging about 10 degrees above normal. Just after I replaced my frost-ravaged pansies, they are getting burned up in the heat.

Something better change before we hit summer otherwise we're going to have another year like the last, which was pretty horrific.

My bet is that it will be similar to summer 2012 which was very hot and dry after a record-breaking 2011. But then we get into a cooler and wetter El Niño pattern later this year and the next few summers are milder like 2013-15. That’s my prediction, probably wrong but likely better than our local meteorologists

[BG918]

Unfortunately the position of the low was not favorable for storm development over OK. Storms firing now on the AR border where there was better moisture return. On to watching the next system that will likely be similar later next week

[SEMIweather]

My bet is that it will be similar to summer 2012 which was very hot and dry after a record-breaking 2011. But then we get into a cooler and wetter El Niño pattern later this year and the next few summers are milder like 2013-15. That’s my prediction, probably wrong but likely better than our local meteorologists

Yep, every ENSO cycle is somewhat different but I think something like this is likely to be correct.

[PoliSciGuy]

This upcoming El Niño is gonna be massive, possibly 3-4 degrees above normal. This is coupled with a massive decrease in sulfides in the northern latitudes due to regulations on ship emissions

[kukblue1]

Keep an Eye on Wednesday. There is a cap but not strong in some spots. Sharp dryline. SE moving storms. Hail storms. Could be a little interesting.

[MagzOK]

The problem with Wednesday is that so far it looks to be lacking convergence.