March 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[BG918]

Next week looks pretty unsettled across the state with the best rain/storm chances Tuesday, Friday and Sunday. Warmer daytime highs in the 60's and 70's with higher dewpoints - possible mid-60's dewpoints by Thursday/Friday!

GFS potential rain totals through end of next week

[Bill Robertson]

This pattern seems to happen pretty much every year - winter, warm-up for a few weeks, below-freezing cold snap, real spring. Everybody in OKC should be used to it by now...

I agree. And it can get cold later than this. I remember riding a couple Red Bud Classics with frost on the ground and watching out for icy spots on the roads. And it's in early April.

[kukblue1]

Here we go again. This Thursday SPC already has slight risk for Oklahoma. As of right now all modes possible. However it is only Saturday so a lot is going to change.

[kukblue1]

Still maintain on Sunday morning a 15% area for much of the state on Thursday evening into Thursday night. I guess technically it's not a slight risk this far out but the risk is there. Probably another cold front crashing in type deal. Might be a risk area on Wednesday.

[BG918]

EURO estimated rainfall totals through Friday

[C_M_25]

Damn! Outside of the bullseye again. Getting concerned about the lack of rain we’re getting.

[Roger S]

The EURO is accurate about 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000001% of the time.

[BG918]

The EURO is accurate about 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000001% of the time.

I usually blend the two together

This is the EURO 3 days before last week's storm


This is the GFS 3 days before


and the actual rainfall totals from Mesonet

[BG918]

Here is the GFS model for this week's storm, most of the heavy rain is in far eastern OK into Arkansas

[Anonymous.]

The growing difference between the north side of I-44 and the south side will continue this week. Thursday's severe threat is trimmed down to mostly far S/SE OK. More flooding rainfall for E parts of the state into AR.

[BG918]

The growing difference between the north side of I-44 and the south side will continue this week. Thursday's severe threat is trimmed down to mostly far S/SE OK. More flooding rainfall for E parts of the state into AR.

The difference is stark. Unreal how dry it is in the Panhandle. Flooding south and east of Tulsa, meanwhile Bartlesville is running out of water https://www.examiner-enterprise.com/...e/70011717007/

[BG918]

Another view of the I-44 divide

[Anonymous.]

A little bit of life being breathed back into the OKC area for Thursday evening storm chances. SPC has added C OK back into the Slight Risk. Emphasizing hail threat.

[SEMIweather]

It’s absolutely crazy just how similar the 12z HRRR output is to the last few systems…I-44 looks to be right on the dividing line once again. Major hail threat for areas that do get storms tomorrow afternoon.

[BG918]

Flood Watch issued for parts of central and eastern OK. 2-3” of rain possible with possible river flooding in SE OK

[C_M_25]

Interesting as the NAM is showing the cold front cutting off the cluster of storms before they move through the city. That should limit the severe weather threat for the area. Curious if this is a new development in the models of what because I’m just not seeing much of a severe weather threat from them currently.

Edit: I should say that it almost looks like the highest severe weather threat is back to the west…per the NAM but that is counter to what everybody is saying. I’m confused lol

Edit edit: Nevermind. I see the storms firing along the boundary. They just weren’t as pronounced on the high res NAM model. Still looks like there’s some decent instability out west prior to the front moving through. Will be interesting to see what happens.

[kukblue1]

I say cold front for the win again tomorrow. HRRR latest run has trended to a bigger push by the cold front keeping everything just ever so east of the metro. Either way it's going to be another close call for the metro and don't let your guard down there might be some big hail close by.

[Anonymous.]

Agreed. This system is nearly identical to the last one. The majority of the heavy stuff looks to setup just E of OKC. There could be some big time flooding just SE of both OKC and Tulsa.

OKC's main rain will likely come from getting clipped by storms firing near Lawton.

[BG918]

^ That is a crazy narrow gradient between flooding rain and nearly nothing. It will all depend on where the "train" sets up. Parts of S Tulsa could be underwater while N Tulsa has sprinkles.

[Elrenogolf]

Anyone have a feel for what time the biggest hail threat will be for the OKC metro?

[Pete]

It seems like almost every time the bulk of OKC is on the edge of big rainfall predictions, we get far less than modeled.

It's all part of the already massive and ever-widening difference between the western and eastern parts of the state.

[Anonymous.]

Anyone have a feel for what time the biggest hail threat will be for the OKC metro?

I would say 9-10pm is OKC's best shot at any hail, but the hail threat will be very low and likely non-damaging. This assumes early development around 5-6pm fires up SE of OKC.

OKC's best shot at rain/storms appears to be getting clipped by storms that develop toward Lawton.

[Elrenogolf]

I would say 9-10pm is OKC's best shot at any hail, but the hail threat will be very low and likely non-damaging. This assumes early development around 5-6pm fires up SE of OKC.

OKC's best shot at rain/storms appears to be getting clipped by storms that develop toward Lawton.

Thank you for your analysis.

[C_M_25]

Cold front already pushed through downtown okc. I would suspect that this limits the severe weather threat quite a bit.

[Anonymous.]

SVR watch is out for I-44 and points E. Temps here in C OK are in the 50s, so nothing too wild is expected. Heavy rain will be the main threat, maybe some very small hail mixed around taller storm columns.

Norman about to get a big drink in the next 45 min if that storm holds up.

Here is the latest HRRR: