February 2023 - General Weather Discussion

[kukblue1]

Friday evening EURO. You geta tornado and you get a tornado everyone in Western Oklahoma gets a tornado. GFS. You might get out of the 50s

[SoonerDave]

If this cold air continues as it appears it will, it's going to be difficult (not impossible) to get enough return heat to raise the CAPEs enough for significant storm potential. I think several other forecasters are hedging now.

[SEMIweather]

Based on how much the models have underestimated the strength of the arctic airmass over the last three days, I would be stunned if said airmass recovers enough to allow for discrete supercells to initiate ahead of the front on Sunday. That being said, the system is still dynamic enough that I do still favor some sort of QLCS event for much of the state on Sunday Evening as the front moves through, with damaging winds being the main threat.

[kukblue1]

Moderate Risk for Western Oklahoma. Mostly a big wind event with this but If and big if a storm can form before it all lines out a strong tornado is possible. SPC even mentioned so.

[kukblue1]

Get ready for 80-100 MPH winds western half of Oklahoma

[kukblue1]

Moderate risk pretty much anything west of i-35. If you have anything outside that you don't want to blow away you best bring it in this morning. Expect a few Tornado warnings too but you won't notice the difference between the QLCS and the wind to be honest.

[April in the Plaza]

Get ready for 80-100 MPH winds western half of Oklahoma

This evening’s projected radar looks like a derecho to my untrained eye.

[runOKC]

All of the metro is now included in the moderate risk area.

[kukblue1]

Storm prediction center 10:30 update using some strong language. .SUMMARY...
A derecho is forecast with widespread damaging winds and embedded
swaths of significant severe gusts from 80-110 mph, centered on
parts of Oklahoma this evening into tonight. Embedded tornadoes are
anticipated as well, with the greatest potential for strong
(EF2-EF3) tornadoes across southwest Oklahoma this evening.

[SEMIweather]

This is shaping up to be an extremely high-impact event all across the Metro sometime between 9:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. this evening.

[Anonymous.]

Fast moving line of storms will be the forecast heading into dark. Luckily the storms are expected to lose some steam entering C OK as the air is not extremely unstable. However, if we get some clearing and solar heating this afternoon, that could change.

Any cells along the line staying isolated will have tornado potential.

[jn1780]

The temps will be the difference between just a little bit of a noisy night to a multi billion dollar damaging wind event.

[floyd the barber]

Looks like the first half of February is going to be in a very active pattern. Bring it on!!

Hopefully this is a good sign for an active spring.

Practically here. Despite the temperature fluctuations, my allergies are starting to fire up.

[SEMIweather]

Regardless of temperatures, I’m favoring a more robust solution given the crazy dynamics at play. The only thing the slow airmass recovery is really preventing is the potential for discrete supercells ahead of the front. Storms are going to form and go linear almost immediately, but you would have to think the screaming winds just above the surface are going to outweigh the small amount of convective inhibition. The MDT Risk for damaging winds is more than justified, IMO.

[sooner333]

From which direction should we expect the heaviest winds?

[SEMIweather]

From the SW

[kukblue1]

2PM update Tornado risk has been moved closer to the OKC metro area. I-40 to the North Hwy 81 to the East Red River to the South. Could go as far north of Hwy 51 and as far east of I-35

[Bunty]

Regardless of temperatures, I’m favoring a more robust solution given the crazy dynamics at play. The only thing the slow airmass recovery is really preventing is the potential for discrete supercells ahead of the front. Storms are going to form and go linear almost immediately, but you would have to think the screaming winds just above the surface are going to outweigh the small amount of convective inhibition. The MDT Risk for damaging winds is more than justified, IMO.

So far, I'm not much worried about it, due to the cloudy weather, temps not yet in the 60s but almost at 59 and barometer still closer to 30.00 than 29.00. However, if the same strong atmospheric conditions set up later this spring, along with it being sunny and in the 80s, then I'm not going to be worried, I'm going to be scared!

For now, given the unusual conditions, I wouldn't want to argue against the need to monitor the situation as it further develops.

[jn1780]

Here it comes, wind is picking up.

[C_M_25]

Sun just came out in western okc. Will be curious if there’s enough time left in the day to warm it up a bit.

[C_M_25]

I’m still not all that impressed with dewpoint temps. Would feel more confident in a high end event if they were more in the 60’s.

[SEMIweather]

NWS Norman with about as strong of a wording in their latest AFD as I’ve ever seen.

[kukblue1]

Normally I would be with you all in terms of not enough moisture not warm enough but the jet stream upper level winds with this system are off the charts. Storms already forming in Texas Panhandle with dewpoints around 50. 4:30 Western Oklahoma has Dewpoints in the Mid 50s. 57 Lawton area. That's more than enough on a day like today with so much shear in the atmosphere.

[C_M_25]

I haven’t been paying super close attention to the timing of this system on the models, but from the forecasts I saw earlier in the day, it seems like this system is a little behind schedule? Feel like the storms fired up much further west than was originally forecast. Or I could just be mistaken?

[Boop]

March is coming soon so I am very excited for Spring, warm weather, flowers blooming, and birds chirping but the bad thing about Spring is my severe allergies but I will take it over the cold weather any day!