August 2022 - General Weather Discussion

[SEMIweather]

After a brief respite, above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation will likely once again be the rule throughout much of August. I'll go ahead and start this thread off by comparing where this meteorological summer stacks up historically thus far, and where it might end up landing.

Hottest Average Max Temperatures (June - July)
1) 2011 - 99.9F
2) 1934 - 97.7F
3) 1980 - 96.9F
4) 1998 - 96.8F
5) 2006 - 96.0F
6) 1936 - 95.7F
7) 1966 - 95.2F
8) 1954 - 95.1F
9) 2012 - 95.0F
T10) 1914 - 94.2F
T10) 2022 - 94.2F

Hottest Average Max Temperatures (June - August)
1) 2011 - 100.7F
2) 1980 - 98.2F
3) 1936 - 97.6F
4) 1934 - 97.5F
5) 1998 - 97.2F
6) 2006 - 96.7F
7) 1954 - 96.3F
8) 1918 - 95.6F
9) 2012 - 95.5F
10) 1943 - 95.3F

To confirm a Top 10 hottest summer in terms of max temperatures for the meteorological summer timeframe of June - August, the average high in August will have to be 97.3F or greater, which unfortunately might be doable as our average high in July was 99.3F, and the general pattern looks to continue.

Average August High Temperature (1891-2021) - 92.5F
Average August High Temperature (1992-2021) - 92.9F
Average August High Temperature (2007-2021) - 92.9F
Average August High Temperature (2022) - ???

[BG918]

Thanks for the data. This has definitely been an unusually hot and dry summer in OK. This past weekend was also very unusual to have so much rain and cool temps in late July but it was sorely needed. A few more of those would be nice, and would keep temps lower. It will all depend on where high pressure sets up over the next few weeks.

[SEMIweather]

IMO, the best thing that can be said for our weather the next couple of weeks is that the ridge looks to become centered more over the Central/Northern Plains, which could potentially allow for an occasional shortwave to propagate westward into Oklahoma from the Southeastern U.S. and trigger some thunderstorms. Which...it's not impossible, I've certainly seen it happen before at this time of year, but it's not exactly a pattern that you want to be relying on for precipitation and relief from the heat lol. And then I guess we'll see what happens during the second half of the month.

[BG918]

Long-range outlook shows hotter and drier for August. Short-term models show chances of rain/storms on 8/4 and again 8/10 but nothing like what we saw this past weekend

[Libbymin]

At this point, any temperature that is below triple digits feels noticeably cooler, even if it's in the 90's.

[SEMIweather]

Yeah, I started taking 10-15 minute walks in the heat of the day a few weeks back in order to acclimate once it became obvious that we were in for a month or two of miserably hot weather. It’s still not great, but at least relatively tolerable now (although that might just be the Stockholm Syndrome talking).

[Bill Robertson]

Yeah, I started taking 10-15 minute walks in the heat of the day a few weeks back in order to acclimate once it became obvious that we were in for a month or two of miserably hot weather. It’s still not great, but at least relatively tolerable now (although that might just be the Stockholm Syndrome talking).

Probably not Stockholm Syndrome. In my 20s-30s I worked outside as an electrician 40 to 50 hours a week and occasionally helped friends frame or roof houses on top of that. And on most of the side jobs we drank beer all day. We never noticed the heat at all. Getting used to it and maybe youth make a big difference.

[BG918]

Decent chance of overnight storms mainly northern OK early Thursday. Another chance of more widespread rain Monday into Tuesday across the state. Great to at least see some rain chances in the forecast, anything to keep temps more in check during one of the typically hottest and driest months.

[baralheia]

I'm hopeful that we'll get more rain in OKC - the south side didn't get much out of last weekend's storms. We only picked up about half an inch near Crossroads.

[BG918]

This is Thursday morning, general movement will be north to south with the best coverage in NE OK

[BG918]

Double post

[Anonymous.]

Yes, I would put OKC's chance of rain very low, around 10%.

Texas and Oklahoma will need a complete sustained week+ pattern change or a tropical storm to help the region.

[BG918]

Yes, I would put OKC's chance of rain very low, around 10%.

Texas and Oklahoma will need a complete sustained week+ pattern change or a tropical storm to help the region.

The last few GFS model runs have been showing some hope for more widespread rain and cooler temps. Tropics have been eerily quiet this year.

[mugofbeer]

The last few GFS model runs have been showing some hope for more widespread rain and cooler temps. Tropics have been eerily quiet this year.

Seems like I saw something about Sahara dust suppressing the Atlantic tropics.

[Bunty]

Back to greenless lawns by late August.

[Anonymous.]

If you haven't gone outside in OKC in the last hour or two [1:45pm now] yet, do it now before the warm air erodes back into this coldpool.

[BG918]

Seems like I saw something about Sahara dust suppressing the Atlantic tropics.

That is one culprit. Certainly not water temps in the Gulf.

GFS showing rain chances associated with weak frontal passages around 8/9-10 and again 8/18-19. We'll take whatever we can get in August.

[Bill Robertson]

If you haven't gone outside in OKC in the last hour or two [1:45pm now] yet, do it now before the warm air erodes back into this coldpool.

That was a nice break.

[TheTravellers]

Seems like I saw something about Sahara dust suppressing the Atlantic tropics.

And now there's the volcano in Tonga:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/03/world...scn/index.html

[BG918]

Narrow band of rain has dumped over half an inch on parts of the west metro. This is near areas in Grady County that haven't seen more than 0.25" since early June! Crazy to see the difference between Oklahoma County and Canadian County.

[Pete]

I got soaked on my walk this morning around 6AM.

It was awesome.

[bucktalk]

I got soaked on my walk this morning around 6AM.

It was awesome.

Same at my place. Wish we'd get enough rain to create a bit of green vegetation before fall sits in....assuming we'll have fall time.

[Roger S]

Yeah.... Those two 55's down there in Carter County... My farm is right in between them.

[Teo9969]

Same at my place. Wish we'd get enough rain to create a bit of green vegetation before fall sits in....assuming we'll have fall time.

I will say - the fall of 2012 was probably the most beautiful fall I've ever seen in Oklahoma because the high temps of that summer along with an extended warm days cool nights cycle had the trees changing in a very slow and distinct fashion.

We had a light ice storm, I believe, in October of that year. The day after it had iced, I had a drive down I-35 to Dallas for a music lesson in an lightly overcast sky. Those little mountains about 90 minutes out of OKC was easily the most beautiful that central Oklahoma has ever been.

Here's to hoping this summer leads to a repeat of that :-)

[Anonymous.]

Random showers and storms staying in the forecast next couple days. Consider it a win if you get under one.

Temperatures will still be in upper 90s.

Not seeing a big-time pattern shift anytime soon. The drought will continue to strengthen.