2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread

[gopokes88]

Down 55% and have stabilized there. Going to be a climb back up.

https://www.flyokc.com/sites/default...nplanement.pdf

[catch22]

Looks like Frontier is going to make an attempt at OKC-LAS. In the pre and post covid world this makes sense. Leisure route, fairly good sized market. Right now, it's a strange route because honestly, everything is a strange route with 40-50% demand on unprofitable fares.

[SEMIweather]

If the vaccine timeline and efficacy pans out, it feels possible for domestic travel to be back to pre-COVID levels sometime in Q3 2021. We'll see, hopefully I won't be eating my words ten months from now lol.

[catch22]

If the vaccine timeline and efficacy pans out, it feels possible for domestic travel to be back to pre-COVID levels sometime in Q3 2021. We'll see, hopefully I won't be eating my words ten months from now lol.

I think we will see an initial 10-20% "immediate" return, this will be mostly leisure (trips people have postponed from this year). Business travel will probably stay dormant through much of the next year. Business travel will follow convention traffic for the most part, and I think most are expecting a significant delay in that starting. I would bet most business conventions will begin booking once confidence in the vaccine takes place, so many conventions may not start up again until 2022. Business meetings will likely lag further as Zoom will be the "norm" for now, but every tech advance has promised to decimate business travel and one has yet to do it. While people are comfortable with Zoom and Facetime meetings, eventually business travel will get back into the habit of sending real people, but maybe not on the same scale as before.

Leisure travel will definitely return the quickest, but the question still remains: at what fares? People will jump all over $39 one ways to Vegas and Florida, but will the airlines be jumping to fly airplanes at a loss? They are stuck in a chicken and egg scenario as far as the recovery. Stimulate the market with junk fares to get people flying, or restrict capacity so fares will rise and only fly what is essential. The airlines seem to be choosing the former, but it is an expensive proposition. The combined cash burn across the industry is $100 million a day. Loss. Not the cost to operate it, but the final P/L at the end of the day for all of the US airlines is that figure. If demand doesn't return (so far it isn't), the airlines are forced to retreat from that strategy (they are).

I have stopped posting route and frequency updates because they are hard to keep up with at the moment, but the airlines are slashing capacity in Jan and Feb. Across the board. It really sucks. But hopefully we are approaching the end of the tunnel.

[SEMIweather]

I think we will see an initial 10-20% "immediate" return, this will be mostly leisure (trips people have postponed from this year). Business travel will probably stay dormant through much of the next year. Business travel will follow convention traffic for the most part, and I think most are expecting a significant delay in that starting. I would bet most business conventions will begin booking once confidence in the vaccine takes place, so many conventions may not start up again until 2022. Business meetings will likely lag further as Zoom will be the "norm" for now, but every tech advance has promised to decimate business travel and one has yet to do it. While people are comfortable with Zoom and Facetime meetings, eventually business travel will get back into the habit of sending real people, but maybe not on the same scale as before.

Leisure travel will definitely return the quickest, but the question still remains: at what fares? People will jump all over $39 one ways to Vegas and Florida, but will the airlines be jumping to fly airplanes at a loss? They are stuck in a chicken and egg scenario as far as the recovery. Stimulate the market with junk fares to get people flying, or restrict capacity so fares will rise and only fly what is essential. The airlines seem to be choosing the former, but it is an expensive proposition. The combined cash burn across the industry is $100 million a day. Loss. Not the cost to operate it, but the final P/L at the end of the day for all of the US airlines is that figure. If demand doesn't return (so far it isn't), the airlines are forced to retreat from that strategy (they are).

I have stopped posting route and frequency updates because they are hard to keep up with at the moment, but the airlines are slashing capacity in Jan and Feb. Across the board. It really sucks. But hopefully we are approaching the end of the tunnel.

I don't have anything substantive to add, but did want to say thanks for providing a detailed analysis in response to my hunch. Sorry for what your industry has had to deal with this year and really hoping things start to turn around in 2021.

[catch22]

I don't have anything substantive to add, but did want to say thanks for providing a detailed analysis in response to my hunch. Sorry for what your industry has had to deal with this year and really hoping things start to turn around in 2021.

Thanks. And, while I know the average person had nothing to do with it, and I don't necessarily think it is fair how it went down - thank you for subsidizing the airline industry through this crisis. I hate the term bailout as it implies wrong doing - but I see it more as a lifeline. I wish the government was equally as concerned for the other industries inpacted by this pandemic. I know it doesn't mean much. I am just one out of several million people that were helped this year by the taxpayer's generosity in helping the aviation industry to not go belly up. So, thank you, for what it is worth - and hopefully my bosses will be good stewards of the lifeline extended to us.

[damonsmuz]

The Frontier flight announcement is great. I mean, any flight addition right now are great. I wonder how close these flight times to LAS will be between Southwest, Allegiant and now Frontier. Certainly we're not going to see 3 flights out to LAS all within an hour? Right?

[Dob Hooligan]

The Frontier flight announcement is great. I mean, any flight addition right now are great. I wonder how close these flight times to LAS will be between Southwest, Allegiant and now Frontier. Certainly we're not going to see 3 flights out to LAS all within an hour? Right?

I think they are on different days. Like Frontier is one on Thursday and one on Sunday, and Allegiant is one on Friday and one on Monday.

[HOT ROD]

splits the risk nicely, ensuring success of the route and airlines.

I wish more airlines would do this for city pairs esp once OKC gets re-established and we add new city pairs like OKC-BOS, OKC-PDX or (re-add) OKC-ORL. Doesn't have to be daily on a single airline to be successful and might prove to be more successful sharing the route different days.

[Pete]

I lose track of what I have posted here so I will add this press release which just came out:

****************

Southwest Airlines Announces Nonstop Service to Austin – Bergstorm International Airport

OKLAHOMA CITY, July 27, 2021 – Southwest Airlines announced today that it will begin nonstop service from Oklahoma City’s Will Rogers World Airport to Austin – Bergstorm International Airport in Austin, Texas (AUS) beginning October 7, 2021.

“This is great news for Oklahoma City,” says Mark Kranenburg, Airports Director. “Austin is one of our largest markets and a popular destination for both leisure and business travelers. We appreciate Southwest’s commitment to our community by adding this great market for our passengers.”

As of today’s announcement, Southwest’s nonstop destinations from WRWA includes Atlanta, Chicago Midway, Denver, Houston, Las Vegas, Nashville, New Orleans, Orlando, Phoenix, St. Louis, Tampa and Ronald Reagan Washington National. The new service will bring the average number of daily departures by Southwest to 13.

The new Austin service will operate once daily, the current schedule is as follows*:
AUS to OKC OKC to AUS

Departs 9:00am
Arrives 10:25am

Departs 11:00am
Arrives 12:25pm

*Times may vary slightly


Flights go on sale Friday, July 30 and may be booked through www.southwest.com.