Food Inflation/Deflation

[Canoe]

This thread is to discuss food Inflation in the Oklahoman City area and the general cost of food in the United States.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, inflation in a basket of food has steadily increased since last July.

http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituatio...ricesindex/en/

We will discuss the impact the rising food prices have in our personal economy and the effects it has on the lower middle class. If you are able please cite your reasources when making a claim.

[fromdust]

Bound to happen when the fed prints more money than ever in history. Should be an interesting year.

[Jersey Boss]

^ You are narrowing the focus of the original post.
The OP was referencing a world wide data base, not USA. If you are going to opine on the Fed, maybe some #''s that apply only to the USA would be relevant.

[GoGators]

This is really a supply side problem not an increase in demand. It really has nothing to do with the fed printing money. The rising price of food has more to do with supply chain disruption from the pandemic mixed with recent extreme weather events that has caused shortages and price increases. The freeze event alone in southern Texas destroyed hundreds of millions of dollars in crops. That cost will be passed on to the consumer as retailers supplant this inventory from regions further away.

This is why certain goods (like food and lumber) are seeing price increases while the inflation rate of the broader economy is almost non existent. If printing money was to blame, you would expect to see rising rates across the board not just in specific markets.

[Ward]

I've noticed that many food items locally have gone up in price.

However, Beef has come back down.

If you remember at the start of the covid crisis Beef basically doubled in price, or maybe a little more.

My main go to for food purchases is Crest. I also shop some at Sprouts and at Aldi's.

[Canoe]

I found this report.

https://www.marketplace.org/2021/03/...cording-to-un/

In addition to what is being discussed above, apparently China is buying more cereal crops to feed thier local pork industry.

[Bill Robertson]

I haven't really noticed except for meat in general a few months ago. Not just beef but also pork, chicken and fish. But as mentioned before it came back down. Not food really but TP and paper towels were astronomical when they became available again. They still haven't dropped to pre panic prices. And limes tripled a few months ago. They've come back down to twice what they were a year ago.

[jccouger]

Definitely has more to do with messed up supply chains than it does fed money printing

[Bill Robertson]

Definitely has more to do with messed up supply chains than it does fed money printing

Supply chains were really bad for awhile. At least from the end I know a little about. Warehouses would try to place orders from manufacturers or suppliers and either couldn't order or the order would be accepted but the product never showed and ended up being cancelled. Things are much better now except for certain isolated items. For instance I guess the Propel Flavored Water plant must be shut down because it can't be found. Most vendors are begging to get their shipments into warehouses.

[BDP]

Outside of health care and higher education, food and beverage has been a leading category of inflation for awhile.

Basically, essential consumer goods and services have been going up for years. That's not to say that Pandemic factors or stimulus measures haven't had an effect on food prices, but it's definitely nothing new.

[mugofbeer]

Interesting article.

https://chinapower.csis.org/china-food-security/

[Canoe]

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/con...-year-n1263897

NBC seems to think we will have higher food prices all year.

[Pete]

If you talk to restaurant operators, they'll tell you they are all having a terrible time finding enough product.

Lots of people are running out of things due to high demand in their restaurants, but the suppliers can't get enough to them to keep up.

[unfundedrick]

If you talk to restaurant operators, they'll tell you they are all having a terrible time finding enough product.

Lots of people are running out of things due to high demand in their restaurants, but the suppliers can't get enough to them to keep up.

This is a little off topic for this thread but this KFOR news segments, including an interview with Cathy Cummings, highlights another shortage being experienced by local restaurants. https://kfor.com/news/local/oklahoma...n-to-cannabis/

[Jersey Boss]

This is a little off topic for this thread but this KFOR news segments, including an interview with Cathy Cummings, highlights another shortage being experienced by local restaurants. https://kfor.com/news/local/oklahoma...n-to-cannabis/

Seeing how you put this out there it warrants a response. If you want good employees than offer good wages and benefits. Obviously most employers have this figured out.

[Canoe]

Seeing how you put this out there it warrants a response. If you want good employees than offer good wages and benefits. Obviously most employers have this figured out.

Well said Jersey Boss.

[Canoe]

Here is a list of commodity price changes. As you can see many items are up, but not all items.

https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/

[Canoe]

According to this economist.

https://www.thecarsonreport.com/post...0-type-numbers

Inflation numbers are about as high as they were in the late 70s. Now I wasn't alive in the late 70s. Can anyone any older members confirm or deny what this economist is saying in his blog?

[Jersey Boss]

This action by hackers of unknown origin will cause the cost of meat to rapidly rise.
I don't know what the answer is but this threat needs to be dealt with.
Meat Plant Shutdowns Are Spreading After a Cyberattack on JBS
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meat-...214130697.html

[oklip955]

California and Arizona are going to have huge cuts to their ag water this year so many areas will not be able to grow produce, hay for cattle ie dairy herds etc. Throw in the fact that Brazil is having a bad drought also in an area that produces cattle and grain for the world market, and then consider flooding in New Zealand and drought in Australia, how can there not be an increase in food prices. This is not covid related stuff either. I have not heard about the hacking. It seems like alot of different factors happening right now. With all of them I cannot see how food prices will not soar. This is going to really hurt those who are just barely making it. Lots of elderly on fixed incomes and others on pensions that are not going to get cost of living increases. It back to doing more with less. It seems like there is not any "cheap" foods to fall back on anymore. Even beans and rice are getting pricey.

[mugofbeer]

According to this economist.

https://www.thecarsonreport.com/post...0-type-numbers

Inflation numbers are about as high as they were in the late 70s. Now I wasn't alive in the late 70s. Can anyone any older members confirm or deny what this economist is saying in his blog?

Yes and no. The moment in time we are in is a blip mostly caused by Covid related causes, a sudden economic boom as Covid wanes and is innoculated, leftover from the winter cold snap, the recent pipeline shutdown and a slow recovery of our supply chain. Demographics that previously wanted to live in urban, near-downtown and near-work apartments, now want to buy houses in suburban areas where there is less covid, room for home offices, less rioters and better schools.

In 1973, we had the Arab oil embargo as retaliation for the Arab-Israeli Yom Kippur war. Oil prices jumped 350% suddenly causing inflation to ripple throughout the entire economy for most of the rest of the decade. Interest rates stayed up and the economy was in a high interest rate, high inflation "stagflation." It took a shock interest rate increase (money supply decline) by the Fed to slow the economy into a deep recession. Output and employment declined, interest rates declined but inflation stayed high based on psychology of expected inflation. It took several years, a tax cut and coordinated efforts to lower the relative value of the $ to finally boost the economy, lower rates and inflation.

Today is totally different. We have a supply chain problem coupled with an unexpected flight to the suburbs - in some cases, long-term demographic changes. Covid has caused problems across the economy with mass layoffs, an available labor shortage, microchip shortages and supply shortages. The economy is fairly strong and interest rates are near historical lows. The supply chain will slowly correct itself so what we have should be a short-lived blip.



y circumstances are completely different and

[Canoe]

According to Reuters the high cost of food will cause unrest in developing countries.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/...ao-2021-06-10/

[mugofbeer]

I haven't really noticed except for meat in general a few months ago. Not just beef but also pork, chicken and fish. But as mentioned before it came back down. Not food really but TP and paper towels were astronomical when they became available again. They still haven't dropped to pre panic prices. And limes tripled a few months ago. They've come back down to twice what they were a year ago.

Remember PT and TP are paper products (wood). That's not going to change until supply and demand for that commodity gets balanced properly again. Also, the price of oil affects the cost of production and delivery of everything.

[Canoe]

Here is a story from NPR regarding food inflation.

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2...devious-cousin

[Canoe]

CNN believe the problems at the grocery store will continue this winter.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/09/busin...ain/index.html