May 2021 - General Weather Discussion

[SEMIweather]

As usual in May around here, lots of different items to discuss.

1) A cold front will move through the area tomorrow afternoon. Elevated storms will likely form behind the front tomorrow evening; large hail looks to be the main threat, with any tornado threat focusing well east of the Metro where surface-based storm development is possible.

2) A northwest flow system will move into the area from the Rockies on Wednesday Evening, possibly triggering another round of storms. There are still some model inconsistencies, but this potentially looks to be focused more to the the north of the city. In any case, would not expect any notable tornado threat with this system either as our storm events from NW flow systems tend to be more linear in nature.

3) Things become increasingly murky into the weekend, but there's a general signal for another round or two of storms in the Friday - Sunday timeframe. IMO, still doesn't really look like a pattern that would give us any major severe weather.

4) Looking into the long range, things do appear to potentially shift towards a more "classic" spring severe weather pattern for Oklahoma, with a trough in the Southwest US and a ridge in the Southeast. This setup usually gives us the southeasterly surface winds and southwesterly flow aloft that we find in a lot of our major spring events. This would likely be in the May 13th-17th timeframe, so still a lot of time for things to change.

Looking forward to revisiting this post in the weeks to come and seeing how accurate or inaccurate my predictions are, lol.

[Pete]

^

Really appreciate the info.

[SEMIweather]

^

Really appreciate the info.

No problem. Meteorology is what originally brought me to Oklahoma, and even though I ultimately didn't have the necessary drive to get my degree (for anyone who doesn't know, meteorology is one of the toughest degrees to get), it's the main reason I'm now on my third stint of living in the OKC area. Will always be fascinated by the myriad of different weather events here, and actually glad it ended up being a hobby rather than a career, as I now get to enjoy the events rather than working during them. Anyways, I just hope that my contributions to these threads can be half as useful as Anonymous's, lol.

[C_M_25]

Seems like hail has been the predominate threat the past few years in oklahoma. The tornado threat has been to the southeast predominately. I wonder if this is recency bias or if there is any data to support that?

[Pete]

No problem. Meteorology is what originally brought me to Oklahoma, and even though I ultimately didn't have the necessary drive to get my degree (for anyone who doesn't know, meteorology is one of the toughest degrees to get), it's the main reason I'm now on my third stint of living in the OKC area. Will always be fascinated by the myriad of different weather events here, and actually glad it ended up being a hobby rather than a career, as I now get to enjoy the events rather than working during them. Anyways, I just hope that my contributions to these threads can be half as useful as Anonymous's, lol.

You guys are so good and thorough, I don't even watch the TV news.

In fact, I cut cable completely a couple of months ago and bought an over-the-air antenna and have never found reason to use it.

[C_M_25]

You guys are so good and thorough, I don't even watch the TV news.

In fact, I cut cable completely a couple of months ago and bought an over-the-air antenna and have never found reason to use it.

I'm not a big fan of the local news for forecasting, but their live coverage (when warranted) is really helpful in spotting the storms....especially on those really risky days.

[Anonymous.]

SEMIweather has it pretty covered. I would say tonight for C OK, getting meaningful rain and storms will predicate on any clusters forming across NW TX/SW OK and move NE into the area. Otherwise most of the action will stay to the E parts of the state.


Looks like the next couple weeks could be some of the best weather we have had in a while with temps in the 70s and wind levels that won't ruin the day.

[Anonymous.]

HRRR showing the party across E OK tonight.

[jn1780]

I have been hearing chasers talking about that more classic pattern May 12th -17th pattern for awhile now. Probably more about them looking for a more normal looking pattern to chase in.

[SEMIweather]

The trend for tonight seems to be for surface-based supercells to form SE of the Metro (high confidence) and elevated supercells to largely stay south of the Metro (slightly lower confidence). Feel confident in saying there will be no tornado threat for the Metro; if the elevated storms track further north than what’s currently shown on the short range models, there will be a hail threat. This would most likely be centered on areas to the south of I-240, if it ends up happening.

[kukblue1]

The trend for tonight seems to be for surface-based supercells to form SE of the Metro (high confidence) and elevated supercells to largely stay south of the Metro (slightly lower confidence). Feel confident in saying there will be no tornado threat for the Metro; if the elevated storms track further north than what’s currently shown on the short range models, there will be a hail threat. This would most likely be centered on areas to the south of I-240, if it ends up happening.

Yes agree. What do you think the this coming weekend and possible weather change next week being more active. (too soon yet)

[kukblue1]

3:30pm Dallas to Ada and East of there looks really good for a Tornado. If you know anyone in SE Oklahoma even North Texas give them a heads up.

[PoliSciGuy]

Yeah once the cap breaks down there it’s gonna be off to the races

[Anonymous.]

SPC noting a 60% probability of tornados in the watch area. And 40% chance of those being EF2 and higher. Supercells are going up now down there.

[PoliSciGuy]

Yeah they hit 50k tops real quick. Might be another massive hail night for the DFW metroplex

[SEMIweather]

Shallow convective showers are currently moving across the Metro, not expecting any issues from these. To the south, numerous supercells are ongoing from Ada all the way down to south of Fort Worth. These are all moving fairly slowly to the NNE. Thus far, large hail has been the main threat from these although NWS Dallas/Fort Worth did just issue the first tornado warning of the day. It does seem increasingly likely that these storms will try to backbuild into the Metro during the 8-9 p.m. timeframe. Not sure about the severe threat as the strongest storms do still look to stay largely to the east of us on the short range models.

Side note, should probably be some very impressive lightning off to the SE tonight if anyone is into lightning watching.

[SEMIweather]

First set of backbuilding storms has initiated around Shawnee and Tecumseh. I do expect another round or two of these to try and make it as far west as the I-35 corridor, with some isolated marginally severe hail possible. Otherwise, seems likely we'll get some scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder early tomorrow morning as an upper level system moves in from the Texas Panhandle. All precipitation should move out of the area by noon tomorrow. Tomorrow will be a rather brisk, chilly day for early May but it's just a one day cool down.

[SEMIweather]

Storms made a few attempts to get going in the eastern suburbs over the past couple of hours, but nothing stuck west of the Oklahoma/Pottawatomie county line. In Pottawatomie County, Shawnee did get some tennis ball sized hail. Would not expect anything now for OKC until the upper level forcing comes in late tonight - that should trigger some showers and a rumble or two of thunder.

[mugofbeer]

Interesting article:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/to...cid=uxbndlbing

[kukblue1]

Interesting article:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/to...cid=uxbndlbing

It's Crazy. When is the last time Kansas has had a tornado? Their numbers are way down over the last two springs. I still think Saturday evening looks impressive but I have only looked at a few things like the dew points and where the dry line sets up. GFS shows a huge dry line punch coming into central Oklahoma but I haven't had time to look at other things. Maybe someone else on her can chime in.

[kukblue1]

Oops never mind just checked a few other things for Saturday while things look good right now there is a strong Cap. We shall see.

[Celebrator]

Oops never mind just checked a few other things for Saturday while things look good right now there is a strong Cap. We shall see.

What's your definition of "look[s] good right now." For us non-chasers, looking good on Saturday night means a strong cap will put a lid on any severe weather chances. Is this what you mean?

[kukblue1]

What's your definition of "look[s] good right now." For us non-chasers, looking good on Saturday night means a strong cap will put a lid on any severe weather chances. Is this what you mean?

What I mean by it looks good is the Dryline and wind profiles look favorable for storms but they will be a cap limiting energy. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) mentioned CAPE this morning which is the energy needed

This may be focused near the intersection of a developing frontal
cyclone and dryline across the central Great Plains on Saturday,
when lapse rates will be steep, but CAPE may still be a bit modest

Oh course as I'm tying this a certain channel is talking about the Tornado Risk for Saturday but that is only if the cap breaks. There is going to be a good Dry line in the state Saturday. Something to keep an eye on but nothing to hype (like you might start hearing on tv) just yet. I'm sure others might be able to explain it better than me. I'm not 100% on how to read weather soundings. I'm ok at it but still don't understand all of it.

[Anonymous.]

Enjoy this spring day with NO WIND! Amazing weather today and tomorrow.

Winds pick back up from the S Friday into Saturday ahead of a storm.

[SEMIweather]

FYI - Pattern around the middle of the month not looking nearly as favorable for severe weather as it did when I created this thread.

Still think we should have decent rain chances at least a few days next week, and given that it's May probably some lower-impact severe threats as well.