April 2021 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

New thread time. Like the latter posts in the March thread have mentioned. Drought and Fire danger increasing every day there is no rain and increasing winds.

Perhaps some relief on horizon around the 15th.

[Anonymous.]

Essentially extreme fire danger persisting the next 24-36 hours through Wednesday night. Allergy sufferers will continue to inhale flying dust and pollen.

The slightest of rain chances tonight here in C OK. Perhaps a quick shower with a passing storm. May be another glimmer or rainfall hope Saturday afternoon.

[Bits_Of_Real_Panther]

Spring severe storm season in central Oklahoma is canceled.

Come back next year!

[jn1780]

Spring severe storm season in central Oklahoma is canceled.

Come back next year!

For most of April anyway. Seems consistent with the trend that has occurred the past few years, where its quiet in April/early May and we sometimes see activity Mid to late May.

[SEMIweather]

May is easily more active than April on average, though. I'd actually argue that June is as well, though April probably has the greater tornado threat. In any case, we can have a quiet April and an active May - that's what happened in 2011, which had a very similar weather pattern to what we've had thus far this spring (though patterns are always subject to change).

[Outhunder]

And keep in mind it only takes a couple of big outbreak days to make a big difference in numbers.

[Anonymous.]

Hot today near 80 ahead of the storm. Storm comes through Friday into Saturday, severe storms likely developing somewhere just E/SE of C OK tomorrow. We will have to watch for any towers that try and get going further west of that area as there is a slight chance the boundary could ignite directly over C OK instead.

Strong N/NW winds will come in behind leading to a cooler Saturday with temps in the uppers 60s, but sunshine with the wind.

Better rain chances for majority of the state around 14th/15th and cooler temperatures.

[C_M_25]

What’s the story tomorrow? Lots of cape and instability but lower winds up high? Not enough shear for big supercells or tornadoes?

[SEMIweather]

I actually think it's a good setup for severe weather but the cold front will probably clear the Metro before the cap breaks. The far southern & eastern suburbs like Norman and Harrah probably stand the best chance of getting something. Certainly SE Oklahoma into the Arklatex looks to have an active day.

[SEMIweather]

SPC has moved the Slight Risk west to include the OKC Metro. I still feel that initiation will likely happen just east of the city, but it will be a close call. Initiation will occur between 4-6 p.m. and the earlier things get started, the better chance OKC stands of getting in on the action. Main threat from anything that forms will be very large hail. This will be a quick event for our area, as the cold front will blow through by 7 p.m. and everything will move out to the east. Very gusty north winds behind the cold front will die down tomorrow morning and leave us with a gorgeous weekend.

[Anonymous.]

Cold front is blasting through the panhandle right now. Triple point directly over SW OK. This should swing the cold front through C OK by around 3pm. Perhaps an elevated shower or storm behind that, but the main action will likely all be SE of OKC. Dangerous setup across AR, LA, and MS.

Extreme fire danger and blowing dust behind the front. Especially across W/NW OK and into the TX PH.

[PoliSciGuy]

Yeah going to be interesting to see where exactly this line fires up and whether the metro avoids the early hail threat.

[Anonymous.]

The boundary is moving a little slower than I thought, this is strange because the low is actually drifting due north across SW/W OK. There may be an extremely small circumstantial window between 3-5pm just near OKC for a storm to get up.

[C_M_25]

Cold front is blasting through the panhandle right now. Triple point directly over SW OK. This should swing the cold front through C OK by around 3pm. Perhaps an elevated shower or storm behind that, but the main action will likely all be SE of OKC. Dangerous setup across AR, LA, and MS.

Extreme fire danger and blowing dust behind the front. Especially across W/NW OK and into the TX PH.

Could you define what a triple point is and how to identify it on a map? Thanks!

[SEMIweather]

Low pressure system is currently sitting over Caddo County with the cold front right along a Cherokee to Camargo to Cheyenne line in NW Oklahoma. Short-range models all seem to be alternating between showing storms blowing up either directly over or directly east of OKC. Just a really complex setup that’s basically a total crapshoot for the Metro. I’m probably a bit more confident in OKC’s storm chances than I was a couple of hours ago, but this is basically as 50/50 as it gets. As mentioned previously, the farther east you are, the better your storm chances will be. Main thread still seems to be very large hail, and it’s still looking like a 4-7 p.m. timeframe. I’ll probably be driving out to the Harrah area once I’m done with work at 5 as my guess is that area has a better than even chance of seeing something interesting.

[jn1780]

Could you define what a triple point is and how to identify it on a map? Thanks!

This is how NWS defines it.

Triple Point
The intersection point between two boundaries (dry line, outflow boundary, cold front, etc.), often a focus for thunderstorm development. Triple point also may refer to a point on the gust front of a supercell, where the warm moist inflow, the rain-cooled outflow from the forward flank downdraft, and the rear flank downdraft all intersect; this point is a favored location for tornado development (or redevelopment).

Look for where the dryline, cold front and warm front intercept.

[SEMIweather]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued for the entire Metro within the next hour, per a Mesoscale Discussion from the SPC

[Anonymous.]

MD is out. Watch is coming for what looks like I-44 corridor and to the SE. I can see towers attempting to go up west of the OKC metro right now.

Anything that develops ahead of the coldfront will have a good chance at producing large hail. Cold front, if fast enough, will likely undercut early storms and cause rapid dissipation. Then a more traditional MCS will develop heading into SE OK where large hail and heavy rain will be the main threat.

So for OKC, watch out W for storms as you commute home.

[Pete]

It feels like a storm is coming.

Humid and still.

[Anonymous.]

Watch is out. Severe hail probability is the highlight of the watch.

Two supercells going up now W of OKC. One near Okarche and the other over Hinton as of 4:04pm.

[snark0leptic]

Based on the severe thunderstorm warning polygon, that Hinton one looks to be the main aggressor towards the metro.

[Anonymous.]

Large hail on the cell SW of Stillwater.

El Reno cell has sunk due south and is going to go just south of Minco with the hail.

OKC area looks like unorganized storms coming in from the W at this time.

[Pete]

The wind shifted and picked up and the temperature is dropping.

But it looks like OKC is going to get skunked on badly-needed rain.

[C_M_25]

Not liking the looks of this week. Seems like our rain chances are gradually coming down the closer we get to it. Hopefully we'll get some much needed rain...

[Anonymous.]

Decent shot of rain for southern half of the state Tuesday night. More chances later in the week for the rest of the state.