Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[Libbymin]

A) There is no data to support the idea that we reached any level of herd immunity anywhere in the US during the summer. We also wouldn't be experiencing this level of a surge in the south right now if we had reached any level of herd immunity.

B) There's also no data to support the idea that summer temperatures were the cause of lower numbers in the summer. Several states actually had significant increases in the summer (Texas, Arizona, Florida)

[TheTravellers]

When ‘pretty please’ isn’t enough

Gov. Stitt, Oklahoma needs a mask mandate now. The state's health and economic future are at risk

[Bunty]

What's up with Yukon other than it doesn't have a required mask ordinance? It's smaller than Stillwater and has surpassed it in total cases as of today.

It would be interesting to know how people think they got covid. Anyway, more people need to be more careful to give overworked hospitals a break.

[TheTravellers]

Quite lengthy, but very interesting, read. Of course, the US is pretty much lambasted because of how poorly we've done with our efforts, and is also taken to task for prioritizing the economy over lives (and there's a whole section on why this is wrong and will end up costing more in the end).

How to save lives and save the economy: 7 key recommendations for the new surge of COVID-19

[jn1780]

"herd immunity" - lol, you lost credibility right there.

Lol, all you want. Its a real scientific concept(I mean, how do you think vaccines work?). The number of people required to prevent an exponential explosion is not a fixed number. It changes with the environment(Population density, weather, social behavior,etc)

We're getting a hard lesson on how much weather plays a part in this equation.

Its probably the worse name for a scientific concept because people assumes zero infections once you hit a certain rate. Its really about decreasing the probability for exponential outbreaks. Every person that gets taken off the table decreases the spread potential ever so slightly. That's why we should be grateful this didn't going this time last year, but it also sucks the vaccine won't make it in time for the best climate conditions this virus has had since coming into this world.

[PaddyShack]

What's up with Yukon other than it doesn't have a required mask ordinance? It's smaller than Stillwater and has surpassed it in total cases as of today.

It would be interesting to know how people think they got covid. Anyway, more people need to be more careful to give overworked hospitals a break.

We may have a lower population, but just by my own experience, Yukon seems way busier than Stillwater, even when OSU has students on campus.

Other than Walmart and Target, and maybe a very few fast food places, everywhere else is not even suggesting to wear a mask. Churches seem to be back to full capacity, especially Life Church, and just about all of the restaurants are full judging by the number of cars in their parking lots. All of our grocery stores look like Black Friday shopping, everyday...

[jn1780]

A) There is no data to support the idea that we reached any level of herd immunity anywhere in the US during the summer. We also wouldn't be experiencing this level of a surge in the south right now if we had reached any level of herd immunity.

B) There's also no data to support the idea that summer temperatures were the cause of lower numbers in the summer. Several states actually had significant increases in the summer (Texas, Arizona, Florida)

Like I said, its not a fixed number and people are over simplifying the concept of herd immunity. There is not another scientific term to use though.

Its about probabilities of new infections on a day to day basis. In the summer there was zero amount of herd immunity but less favorable climate conditions. Now we have a little bit more herd immunity but prime climate conditions.

[BDP]

Oh yeah, it work well for them in Europe. They are enjoying their no lockdown right now.................
Italy was the second country hit hard initially, locked down hard and long, wore masks all summer, now approaching where they were previously.

I am not arguing against the effectiveness of masks, but lets stop with the simplistic logic and realize there are a lot of variables at play.

In order to remove simplistic logic, we have to stop talking about masks in terms of 'mask mandate = full compliance". As you say, there are many more variables involved than that. Are you under the impression that all European countries have had strict mandates or that they have been fully compliant with mandates? There is no evidence of that.

And, for example, Italy's mask mandate, like so many others, had/has exceptions that include things where people gather in groups, like restaurants.

The only simple thing here is that masks have to be worn to work and, even where they are mandated, no where is fully compliant. And a lot of mandates have exceptions for the very places where transmission is actually most likely (see every one of OKC's exceptions) that essentially render them irrelevant.

However, several studies have shown that, when actually worn, the efficacy of masks is quite high. Basically, in line with the efficacy of the flu vaccine. However, if you wear a mask to the bar, but not in the bar, you've erased its efficacy entirely while in a high transmission situation. So, you are questioning masks, but using broad uncontrolled macro level data that includes many many people who do not wear masks while attending large indoor gatherings and events. This is like questioning the efficacy of seat belts by including injuries sustained by people not wearing a seat belt.

On the data science side of things, it seems pretty clear the declines in the south this summer was due to it being the summer lull. They were able to get just enough herd immunity to stop the exponentially growth. Masks may have helped, but certainly not enough to stop the resumption of exponentially growth when the temperatures went down again.

Basically, none of this is supported by any data. Maybe if we get to a million deaths in America we might have had enough recoveries for some level of herd immunity. But that's not a ratio that supports not wearing masks, imo. That's just plain resignation to more death and suffering.

We do have low death rates in Japan, but they're cleaner in everything they do life not just masks.

Exactly. Behavior and respect of community matters.

Also, we are simplistic in our thinking over here in the western world, we are lazy in all our other mitigation efforts and take more risks just because we wear masks thus cancelling out the benefits.

We take more risks by not wearing masks and attending indoor gatherings without them. It has more to do with apathy towards fellow citizens than it does anything else. Whether that's "simplistic" thinking, I'll let others be the judge.

[TheTravellers]

Lol, all you want. Its a real scientific concept(I mean, how do you think vaccines work?). The number of people required to prevent an exponential explosion is not a fixed number. It changes with the environment(Population density, weather, social behavior,etc)

We're getting a hard lesson on how much weather plays a part in this equation.

Its probably the worse name for a scientific concept because people assumes zero infections once you hit a certain rate. Its really about decreasing the probability for exponential outbreaks. Every person that gets taken off the table decreases the spread potential ever so slightly. That's why we should be grateful this didn't going this time last year, but it also sucks the vaccine won't make it in time for the best climate conditions this virus has had since coming into this world.

I was laughing at you saying that there was herd immunity, not the concept - I'm fully aware of the herd immunity concept, but we've never even been close to it in the US, at all, ever, because it's estimated that 70% of the population would have to have been infected with COVID-19. Still laughing at you because you're still just wrong.

[soonerguru]

Oh yeah, it work well for them in Europe. They are enjoying their no lockdown right now.................
Italy was the second country hit hard initially, locked down hard and long, wore masks all summer, now approaching where they were previously.

I am not arguing against the effectiveness of masks, but lets stop with the simplistic logic and realize there are a lot of variables at play. On the data science side of things, it seems pretty clear the declines in the south this summer was due to it being the summer lull. They were able to get just enough herd immunity to stop the exponentially growth. Masks may have helped, but certainly not enough to stop the resumption of exponentially growth when the temperatures went down again.

I haven't seen any real world 'ah ha' example where masks have prevented at least one exponentially explosion. The best we can say is that they slow growth. Even that is hard to quantify, because a lot of places that saw declines had a huge spike beforehand. So which was it: the masks or a temporary lull due to a combination of herd immunity/summer temps? We probably won't have a good mask effectiveness number until comparing everyone after the pandemic is over.

We do have low death rates in Japan, but their cleaner in everything they do life not just masks.

Also, we are simplistic in our thinking over here in the western world, we are lazy in all our other mitigation efforts and take more risks just because we wear masks thus cancelling out the benefits. If one motor cycle rider wears a helmet everyday of the week, but another doesn't but only rides one day of the month who has the greater risk of dying?

Your bolded comment is a total falsehood. We are nowhere close to "herd immunity." To do so, more than 55% of people would have had to have contracted the virus, then attained some type of immunity. As many cases as we have had, we are nowhere near that.

For example, for "herd immunity" to happen in Oklahoma, more than 2 million people would have had to not only get the virus, but retain some form of immunity.

You may have made some excellent points otherwise but whenever anyone makes claims about "herd immunity" having happened it just undermines everything they say.

It has been repeatedly stated by scientists (not your cousin's brother in law on FB or some moron on YouTube) that we will not achieve herd immunity until there is a vaccine.

[soonerguru]

Like I said, its not a fixed number and people are over simplifying the concept of herd immunity. There is not another scientific term to use though.

Its about probabilities of new infections on a day to day basis. In the summer there was zero amount of herd immunity but less favorable climate conditions. Now we have a little bit more herd immunity but prime climate conditions.

This is also bull****. We had a bigger spike in cases in Oklahoma and throughout the South in the middle of Summer. You aren't even paying attention to the obvious.

The spike that started in late June and lasted through July and August was worse than the spike we had in April.

Sadly, the spike that followed a very brief dip in August that we are still experiencing is by far the worst we have seen, and it's going to get so much worse considering people like yourself will be out mouthing off about herd immunity and other nonsense that has been completely debunked by non-quack doctors and scientists. I bet half of Oklahoma will resume their family Thanksgiving celebrations like nothing is going on. People outside of the urban and suburban areas will continue not wearing masks like some dubious badge of honor.

It's really, really, really bad now. December and January are going to be unimaginable.

Also, while I don't think you are arguing against masks, it is worth noting that Oklahoma City saw a stabilization and even a brief reduction in new case numbers following passage of its mask ordinance.

And, as this article plainly spells out: Oklahoma City's hospitals are getting clogged by rural covidiots who live in areas where masks are not required. I don't know how this can be made more clear. Please read it. https://oklahoman.com/article/567655...-filling-rooms

[soonerguru]

What's up with Yukon other than it doesn't have a required mask ordinance? It's smaller than Stillwater and has surpassed it in total cases as of today.

It would be interesting to know how people think they got covid. Anyway, more people need to be more careful to give overworked hospitals a break.

Lots of covidiocy in Yukon, Mustang and Moore.

[educator1953]

Lots of covidiocy in Yukon, Mustang and Moore.

In Duncan, Oklahoma, too. I had to go to Wal-Mart Tuesday to pick up a prescription for an elderly family member. (I avoid the place like the plague.) Anyway, I mask up, walk in, and there was no one at the entrance checking for masks as there was several months ago when I had to go in there. I was very surprised at the number of customers in the place with NO MASKS at all. Did Wal-Mart just give up on having people wear masks? I bet there were no more than 30% of the customers I saw wearing a mask.

Our numbers are rising here in Stephens County. Wear a mask, people!

[jn1780]

This is also bull****. We had a bigger spike in cases in Oklahoma and throughout the South in the middle of Summer. You aren't even paying attention to the obvious.

The spike that started in late June and lasted through July and August was worse than the spike we had in April.

Sadly, the spike that followed a very brief dip in August that we are still experiencing is by far the worst we have seen, and it's going to get so much worse considering people like yourself will be out mouthing off about herd immunity and other nonsense that has been completely debunked by non-quack doctors and scientists. I bet half of Oklahoma will resume their family Thanksgiving celebrations like nothing is going on. People outside of the urban and suburban areas will continue not wearing masks like some dubious badge of honor.

It's really, really, really bad now. December and January are going to be intolerably bad.

I didn't say there was no spike in the summer, I said we hit the ceiling than we came back down for a brief period of time. The ceiling went through the roof when temperatures fell. Masks, percentage of people left to be infected, social distancing, climate, population, ALL all go into the equation in determining how big bad an exponential spike is. Its also a series of waves, what happened on previous wave affects the amount of potential energy in the next wave in the series. And your right, this will be a bad winter, but just think what it would be if Covid came earlier last year just time for the peak of winter. It hit the tail end of the peak last March. We're learning how important temperatures really are for this virus.

You really think 20 percent of people getting infected in the past doesn't make a difference in the intensity of future outbreaks? I beg to differ.

[jedicurt]

You really think 20 percent of people getting infected in the past doesn't make a difference in the intensity of future outbreaks? I beg to differ.

if immunity is only around 90-120 days... no... it really doesn't. and that is information we are still waiting on. we are getting reports of some people getting reinfected in just 90 days. and we are seeing some studies that say it should be around 5-7 months... and we are now seeing newer studies that are saying some could see immunity for a year.. that is still a big question mark and if it truly is that short (which for some people it does appear to be) then previous infection isn't a major difference in future outbreaks

[TheTravellers]

...We're learning how important temperatures really are for this virus.
...

The only thing that matters WRT temperatures and COVID-19 is that colder temperatures make people go/stay inside more and the risk of infection rises. Pretty sure that the virus itself isn't affected by the outside temperature.

[soonerguru]

I didn't say there was no spike in the summer, I said we hit the ceiling than we came back down for a brief period of time. The ceiling went through the roof when temperatures fell. Masks, percentage of people left to be infected, social distancing, climate, population, ALL all go into the equation in determining how big bad an exponential spike is. Its also a series of waves, what happened on previous wave affects the amount of potential energy in the next wave in the series. And your right, this will be a bad winter, but just think what it would be if Covid came earlier last year just time for the peak of winter. It hit the tail end of the peak last March. We're learning how important temperatures really are for this virus.

You really think 20 percent of people getting infected in the past doesn't make a difference in the intensity of future outbreaks? I beg to differ.

I think you are onto something regarding waves. We were always told it would be that way. But the climate thing was more of a guess, comparing it to cold and flu season. As it turned out, there is no COVID season. It is year round.

But further, and addressed in this thread, we are seeing dramatic increases in rural areas in our state, and it is clogging our hospitals. By a factor of 2 to 1 people flooding our ICUs are coming from areas that do not require masking.

Since you seemed to have ignored it, here's the article again.

https://oklahoman.com/article/567655...-filling-rooms

Also, allow me to agree with you that simply wearing masks is not enough when things get this bad, and it sure as hell isn't enough for me. I rarely go anywhere. I will not visit a restaurant or bar for dine in or takeout until sometime next year. Even at places like Costco that are 100% mask compliant, I feel twitchy when it is overly crowded.

People should wear masks as an absolute basic minimum. That is literally the least they can and should do for themselves and others. It diminishes spread of the virus and that is proven.

But they should also not have big family get togethers, go to weddings, go to bars, crowd around each other at football games, go to Affair of the Heart and large indoor events, and they shouldn't join 4,000 non-mask-wearing idiots at a revival at a giant megachurch in Tulsa called Victory, which they did the other night. There were people more crowded together and singing and yelling and so forth than people I observed at the Trump rally.

So, short of an actual government shutdown, people should be avoiding all of the above.

Unfortunately, the people who whine about masks and repeat bogus misinformation are the people most likely to also do the things mentioned above.

I know this sounds incredibly harsh but I don't care if they get sick at this point. 10 months in with all of the information available to them, if they are still acting this way let Darwin finish the job. Unfortunately, every stinking one of these selfish morons that ends up in a hospital puts our caregivers at risk, and increases the likelihood that non-Covid patients suffering emergencies will be denied emergency care they need.

[dankrutka]

if immunity is only around 90-120 days... no... it really doesn't. and that is information we are still waiting on. we are getting reports of some people getting reinfected in just 90 days. and we are seeing some studies that say it should be around 5-7 months... and we are now seeing newer studies that are saying some could see immunity for a year.. that is still a big question mark and if it truly is that short (which for some people it does appear to be) then previous infection isn't a major difference in future outbreaks

Good lord. We've been over this (not responding to you, jedicurt, but the conversation). Herd immunity is not a realistic goal without a vaccine unless you're willing for a million + Americans to die.

However, there is potentially big news on immunity. According to new research, immunity to the coronavirus may last years, perhaps even decades.

[TheTravellers]

...

I know this sounds incredibly harsh but I don't care if they get sick at this point. 10 months in with all of the information available to them, if they are still acting this way let Darwin finish the job. Unfortunately, every stinking one of these selfish morons that ends up in a hospital puts our caregivers at risk, and increases the likelihood that non-coved patients suffering emergencies will be denied emergency care they need.

I'm kinda with you on this, I wish that just covidiots got it, but the virus doesn't care, so smart people and people taking precautions can get it and have to deal with the consequences of it too, very unfortunately.

[David]

Herd immunity through mass infection is dangerous nonsense that is asking for millions of dead Americans. You get it with a vaccine, not the disease.

[OkiePoke]

On Dec. 25th, Oklahoma will have more than 250,000 Covid cases. We will surpass 1,000,000 on April 19th (fitting).

**Not including any vaccine estimates.

[BDP]

You really think 20 percent of people getting infected in the past doesn't make a difference in the intensity of future outbreaks? I beg to differ.

You're not differing with soonerguru or any poster here, really. You're differing with the world's epidemiologists. That is, people who have dedicated their lives to studying the spread of disease.

We're learning how important temperatures really are for this virus.

Again, you're contradicting people who actually study this.

Does weather affect the spread of the coronavirus outside?

[Pete]

Press release:

************

Mayor Holt to Oklahoma City: 10 days to bring down skyrocketing COVID-19 numbers
11/19/2020

Mayor David Holt is imploring Oklahoma City to take a break from higher-risk activities for the next 10 days, and keep our distance from each other to stop the skyrocketing spread of COVID-19 in the metro.

Mayor Holt is issuing a new emergency proclamation providing for local enforcement of restrictions on bars and restaurants announced earlier this week by Gov. Kevin Stitt. He is also asking residents to work from home, order takeout, avoid meetings and gatherings that lack distance, and take extra precautions around Thanksgiving and holiday shopping.

“It’s time to get real,” Mayor Holt said Thursday during a virtual news conference at the OKC-County Health Department (OCCHD). “For at least the next 10 days, I’m asking you to make some tough decisions and take a break.”

Since Nov. 1, daily new coronavirus case counts have nearly tripled from already high levels in the Oklahoma City metro, according to state and local public health data. At more than 800 new cases per day, it’s about 16 times higher than the spring. About 1 out of every 100 metro residents has tested positive for the virus in the last three weeks.

Local hospitals are operating near capacity and expect even more patients, as many people infected during the dramatic recent increase in new cases get sicker in the coming days and weeks.

OCCHD Director Dr. Patrick McGough said people should consider the cost of their Thanksgiving plans.

“Consider whether that plan is worth spending two to three weeks in the hospital. Consider whether that plan is worth unknowingly giving the virus to your grandmother, grandfather, aunt or uncle, who could potentially lose their life before the end of the year if exposed to the virus,” he said. “Trust me, not seeing your family for one Thanksgiving is far better than having that chair empty next year, and every year after.”

Watch Mayor Holt’s and Dr. McGough’s comments in their entirety here on Facebook at fb.com/cityofokc.

Visit covid19.okc.gov for the latest local coronavirus information.


10 days to stop the spread

The vast majority of people infected with COVID-19 develop symptoms within 10 days, according to expert analysis of public health data. If everyone keeps their distance and wears masks during brief public outings for necessities or essential work, we can slow down the virus within those 10 days.

Mayor Holt is asking for all Oklahoma City residents to take specific steps for at least the next 10 days to stop the spread:

• Don’t meet in groups, especially indoors. Politely decline social invitations. Suggest a phone or video call instead.
• Order takeout to support restaurants. But don’t gather with others there.
• Think of ways to gather for Thanksgiving without doing it indoors around a dinner table. Gather virtually or try outdoor drive-by visits.
• People with authority over office workplaces should transition staff to remote work. Do not hold in-person meetings. For those who must work in person, call co-workers instead of visiting them, even from the office next door.
• Religious leaders should encourage their communities to follow these guidelines.
• For any gathering that must take place, require masks and distancing.
• Wear masks for holiday shopping. Many local and national retailers also have curbside pickup for online or phone orders.
• Help elevate this message: Tell family, friends and neighbors to take a break for 10 days.

New emergency proclamation

Mayor Holt will update Oklahoma City’s COVID-19 emergency proclamation to mirror parts of Gov. Stitt’s executive order dated Nov. 16.

Bars, restaurants and requiring and similar venues are required to stop in-person service by 11 p.m., and provide at least 6 feet of distance or barriers between parties served on-premises. The new local proclamation provides local Police Department and code inspector enforcement of the statewide order.

Oklahoma City’s mask ordinance remains in place until at least Dec. 7. The City Council has discretion to consider an extension during its next scheduled meeting Nov. 24.

Visit covid19.okc.gov for the latest local coronavirus information, including the emergency proclamation, mask ordinance, City services updates and public health data.

Free signs about the mask requirement to print for display at local businesses and other public spaces, along with social media graphics and animations, are available on a public shared drive at covid19.okc.gov. The free signs are available in English, Spanish (español), Vietnamese (Tiếng Việt), Arabic (عربى) and Korean (한국어).

[SouthOfTheVillage]

More weak sauce from David Holt. Guy very obviously has designs on the governorship or Inhofe’s seat. Only reasonable explanation at this point.

[jerrywall]

I'm not sure what was weak about it. It seemed like one of Holt's more forceful Covid pressers. I especially liked his line where he said "I don't know your friends, but based on the numbers in OKC one of them has the 'rona".