Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[dankrutka]

Good read on where we are and what's coming by Zeynep Tufekci: It’s Time to Hunker Down

Per the discussion on Thanksgiving:

Plus, the holidays are upon us, which means a spike in gatherings of people who do not otherwise see one another. Such get-togethers, especially if they are multigenerational, can spark more outbreaks. I take no joy in saying this, but all of this means that any gathering outside one’s existing quarantine pod should be avoided for now—especially if it is indoors. Think of it as a postponement and plan to hold it later. Better a late Christmas than an early medical catastrophe. Pods should not expand unless absolutely necessary. Order takeout instead of dining indoors. Make game night virtual. Shop in bulk, so you can do fewer trips to the store. It’s not the right time for wedding receptions or birthday parties.

An important point about colleges:

Young people present one of the biggest challenges. Many colleges are ending school and sending students home, for what could be a country-wide super-spreader event. That age group—young adults—is especially dangerous; although they can get infected, they are less likely to get very sick, so they don’t stay put the way sick people would. That means they pose a great risk to their more vulnerable parents and other older relatives as they go about their lives. Ideally, colleges should offer the students already on campus the option to stay in the dorms over winter break, and those who live in off-campus housing should consider staying put. If they do go home, the students should quarantine for the recommended two weeks to the greatest degree possible.

[Bits_Of_Real_Panther]

Be nice to have Oklahoma do this:
Sending saliva tests out at no expense

https://kstp.com/coronavirus/at-home...ested/5922644/

[Bunty]

Tested positive. I got it from someone I was helping out during the ice storm. I'm sure cases will go up because of that.

Sorry to learn of that. How are you doing?

[Jersey Boss]

Be nice to have Oklahoma do this:
Sending saliva tests out at no expense

https://kstp.com/coronavirus/at-home...ested/5922644/

It would be cheaper and show leadership if Oklahoma had the same covid restrictions as Minnesota first.
Let's start with mask mandates that are enforced. Similar restrictions on bars and contact tracing that is aggressive.

[pw405]

After almost two weeks of no electricity, I finally got most of my data caught up (Ughh.. still need to download PDF's and update the hospital #'s.)

While sitting here making these, really hit home how bad the situation is right now. Cases have gone parabolic. The last time I compiled & posted all the data was on October 18th. (https://www.okctalk.com/showthread.p...55#post1142855)

Summary
Housekeeping since my last update: October set the record for most deaths so far with 306 Oklahomans dead - beating August's record of 259 dead, an increase of 18%. October also set the record for most cases at 35,563, an increase of 25% over the previous record set in September.

Looking ahead to November, its hard to see how November won't shatter all previous records. Assuming average cases and deaths per day stay constant until end of month, November will end with ~59,000 cases and 384 dead. At this rate, November's month to date cases will surpass the total for October around November 18th. November deaths per day are up 30% over October. November cases per day are up 71% over October.

If I were a betting man, I'd put money on the average deaths/day accelerating in the second half of November. Significantly.



Trend

The sheer magnitude of the recent case spike really distorts the trend line - compressing the historical 7 day case average trend to the point where all previous spikes seem tame. When Sunday's numbers are added, we should see the trend line decrease, as the large case count reported last Sunday of 4,507 will roll out of the calculation. (Note, I am using 4,507 cases for 11-8, and 0 cases for 11-7 in the 14-day case average here, resulting in 14-day avg. case count of 1,960.)

[Bill Robertson]

It would be cheaper and show leadership if Oklahoma had the same covid restrictions as Minnesota first.
Let's start with mask mandates that are enforced. Similar restrictions on bars and contact tracing that is aggressive.

How many contact tracers does Oklahoma have? Is it even really possible with so many daily new cases. Especially if many are getting the virus because they are going to places where larger groups are gathering using pretty much no precautions.

[HangryHippo]

How many contact tracers does Oklahoma have? Is it even really possible with so many daily new cases. Especially if many are getting the virus because they are going to places where larger groups are gathering using pretty much no precautions.

That ship sailed.

[d-usa]

3,923 cases today. And I don’t think we have a system change or anything like that to blame this time around...

[dankrutka]

We're basically back at the point from April when the discussion was about not overwhelming hospitals. At this point it's clear: It's time for a shut down. If there's not a shut down soon the hospitals and health care workers will be overrun and people with COVID and with other maladies will start to suffer and die needlessly in the next month. And, I strongly suspect, Stitt at least, will choose to let people die.

[PhiAlpha]

We're basically back at the point from April when the discussion was about not overwhelming hospitals. At this point it's clear: It's time for a shut down. If there's not a shut down soon the hospitals and health care workers will be overrun and people with COVID and with other maladies will start to suffer and die needlessly in the next month. And, I strongly suspect, Stitt at least, will choose to let people die.

It would be laughable to watch anyone try to enforce another lockdown at this point. After everything that business owners went through back in the spring, there is no way that all of them would comply...especially in the absence of any type of financial program to reimburse them for the massive losses they would incur by being closed through the holidays. This whole situations sucks but another lockdown is not the answer.

[pw405]

I should know better by now.

Remember, 2 hours ago, when this idiot made this idiotic claim?

When Sunday's numbers are added, we should see the trend line decrease, as the large case count reported last Sunday of 4,507 will roll out of the calculation[/B].
...
...

What an idiot.

Rolling 7 Case avg at time of post: 2,636. Rolling 7 Case Avg. including today's cases: 2,553. A decrease of 3%.

[pw405]

It would be laughable to watch anyone try to enforce another lockdown at this point. After everything that business owners went through back in the spring, there is no way that all of them would comply...especially in the absence of any type of financial program to reimburse them for the massive losses they would incur by being closed through the holidays. This whole situations sucks but another lockdown is not the answer.

I know we're flirting with politics here, but it is also relevant to the thread, in general. Your comment about not having a reimbursement program for a shutdown reminded me of a shower-thought I've long been pondering:

"How will a Biden admin handle states that don't want to comply with Federal mandates to slow Covid spread based on a set of national standards?" My guess:

Next round of stimulus/aid/bailout money will be directly tied to state's compliance with national guidelines on state wide mask orders, restaurant capacity, etc. If a state refuses to pass a mask mandate and has X % of cases per geo region (likely zip code), then I think the stimulus money would be denied or even clawed back from the state. That way the state Exec's will pass their own laws in order to get the federal bucks. Again, not wanting a political debate, I don't care about anybody else's political opinion on this theory. It's just a guess.

However, In general, absent of today's political climate & our own online political tribal badges of honor & political emotional wounds/victories. I do wonder: What options does the Federal gov. have in this scenario? I understand the federal gov is on very shaky legal ground to pass their own federal mask mandate. Do they have other options, legally/procedurally speaking to force states like OK to comply with a mask mandate?

[Pete]

3,923 (!!!) new cases today. 7-day rolling average an incredible 2,553.

12 additional deaths.


We aren't even to the holidays or the colder weather.

Along with the national numbers, this is far worse than anyone predicted.

[Libbymin]

It would be laughable to watch anyone try to enforce another lockdown at this point. After everything that business owners went through back in the spring, there is no way that all of them would comply...especially in the absence of any type of financial program to reimburse them for the massive losses they would incur by being closed through the holidays. This whole situations sucks but another lockdown is not the answer.

What would you say is the alternative solution here? I agree that we should be doing more to help businesses survive this horrible situation but it seems clear to me that doing absolutely nothing while our hospitals get overrun isn’t exactly the answer either.

[d-usa]

Business has always trumped people, this country has operated on that reality for a long time now and it is nothing new. People are secondary, and enterprise is king.

[oklip955]

Wow the numbers for today are totally crazy. I hate to think about what it will be like in 2 or 3 weeks. Me, I am restocking after losing refrigerators and freezers of food due to power outage. That is another who stupid deal, no reason why I should have lost that due to an open breaker on a pole OG&E refused to reset until line fixed, then 7 days later,we don't have time to fix the line, we will just reset the breaker. grrrr. thanks OG&E for the huge loss. Bottom line I plan on just staying home and staying safe. If you are retired or can work from home, just stay home. If you are where delievery is an option for take out or groceries then just do it. If you do go out please wear a mask even if you don't think they work or are against them. Do it for others who are worried when someone walks by them in a store without a mask or one covering just their chin. As I said in March, "We are in deep do do". Now am I right ??? Look at these numbers!!!

[Pete]

We can't do any type of lockdown without a huge stimulus package.

And because the idiots in Washington have jacked around, no package will be passed until February at the earliest, which means thousands and thousands of people are going to die this winter and millions will get sick.

People will look back on this time and wonder how things got so incredibly screwed up given all the resources available in this country.

[PhiAlpha]

Business has always trumped people, this country has operated on that reality for a long time now and it is nothing new. People are secondary, and enterprise is king.

This statement is ridiculous. How do businesses trump people? Businesses are run by people that have poured their lives into them and are completely dependent on them financially. It’s all about people either way you look at it.

[C_M_25]

I noticed our relative Rt has really jumped up on that Rt live website. Anybody have any data on what our percentage positive rate is? I would look but don’t have the time at the moment.

[PhiAlpha]

What would you say is the alternative solution here? I agree that we should be doing more to help businesses survive this horrible situation but it seems clear to me that doing absolutely nothing while our hospitals get overrun isn’t exactly the answer either.

Honestly no idea but the answer is not another mass shut down.

[Pete]

Honestly no idea but the answer is not another mass shut down.

FOLLOW THE GUIDELINES PROVIDED BY THE WHITE HOUSE TASKFORCE.

The proper course of action isn't and never has been hard to understand.

It's just that many prefer to put partisan politics ahead of the lives and well-being of millions of their fellow Americans.

[PhiAlpha]

FOLLOW THE GUIDELINES PROVIDED BY THE WHITE HOUSE TASKFORCE.

The proper course of action isn't and never has been hard to understand.

It's just that many prefer to put partisan politics ahead of the lives and well-being of millions of their fellow Americans.

Agreed.

[Bill Robertson]

I noticed our relative Rt has really jumped up on that Rt live website. Anybody have any data on what our percentage positive rate is? I would look but don’t have the time at the moment.

Friday's weekly report had 12.7% and 14.7% Johns Hopkins. Not completely sure what the difference is but either is way more than a couple months ago.

[d-usa]

This statement is ridiculous. How do businesses trump people? Businesses are run by people that have poured their lives into them and are completely dependent on them financially. It’s all about people either way you look at it.

Your question is the answer you are looking for.

The survival of their business is more important that the survival of people.

If we keep more people alive, some people might go broke. If we keep some business alive, more people will die. It’s up to people to prioritize which one of those they want to survive more.

All of these “a shutdown it going to kill business” arguments also ignore the fact that most of these businesses will be hurt worse by a de-facto shutdown when people aren’t going to utilize these businesses anymore because they are dying.

[PhiAlpha]

Agreed.

Your question is the answer you are looking for.

The survival of their business is more important that the survival of people.

If we keep more people alive, some people might go broke. If we keep some business alive, more people will die. It’s up to people to prioritize which one of those they want to survive more.

All of these “a shutdown it going to kill business” arguments also ignore the fact that most of these businesses will be hurt worse by a de-facto shutdown when people aren’t going to utilize these businesses anymore because they are dying.

I’ve been essentially living like the virus doesn’t exist for the last 2 months (other than doing things like not wearing a mask in public places which just makes you an a**hole). By some miracle, despite putting myself in at least 20 large gatherings, one of at least 3500 people in Florida...I haven’t caught it yet (I’ve taken tests before going around family or anyone with an elevated risk so I know I definitely haven’t). My point in saying that is that you live in a bubble if you think any “defacto” shut down is going to happen. Most of the OK population under 40 has resumed a relatively normal activity level and that isn’t going to change no matter what numbers are released (which most younger people are completely ignoring now). At least in Tulsa, the bars and restaurants are completely packed Thursday through Saturday night. There is very little to no threat of serious illness or lingering effects for people under 40, and even lower the farther down you go in age. Out of the 50-80 people i know that have had it...it’s been a bad head cold for 3 days and nothing at all afterward (or no symptoms whatsoever). The one exception was a person over 65 that had a heart condition and caught it before the initial shutdowns. That doesn’t instill the fear it would take to cause people not to go on about their lives as they usually would. Right or wrong, it is what it is. I just hope everyone wears a mask and exercises caution around the elderly and those with an elevated risk.