Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[Pete]

Is this officially considered the second wave or did the first never end? Most cold and flu viruses get worse during fall winter months so is there any correlation there with the recent alarming rise in cases?

Things sloped down for a while but we are now setting records all over the place.

I'm sure the rise is mainly due to things like schools reopening, bars at full capacity and lots of people going to football games.

We haven't even hit cold & flu season. It's going to get much worse in the coming months.

[Plutonic Panda]

I wonder if they will end up shutting everything down again.

[Bits_Of_Real_Panther]

"Londoners are now banned from mixing with other households indoors, while people in Paris and eight other French cities are confined to home bet
ween 9 p.m. and 6 a.m. for four weeks."

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/a...mpression=true

[Libbymin]

They’ve been saying that a lot of the spread had been from small family gatherings indoors. More people are wearing masks in public places but they let their guard down when they’re inside with close family members, who can just as easily give the virus to them. I worry about people having family gatherings for the holidays that are coming up.

[SEMIweather]

You can pretty much guarantee that the holidays are going to be an absolute disaster.

[PoliSciGuy]

Flu season should (hopefully) pretty mild, given the lack of travel between here and the tropics and their own low flu season.

https://www.livescience.com/flu-seas...ecautions.html

[OKCRT]

Flu season should (hopefully) pretty mild, given the lack of travel between here and the tropics and their own low flu season.

https://www.livescience.com/flu-seas...ecautions.html

Yes I seen a report that early numbers are in for the seasonal flu and so far the numbers are way down over normal.

[soonerguru]

Anecdotally, a friend mentioned that even previously vigilant places, such as Cafe Cuvee, seem to be packing them in more than they were. I guess they had a wedding party for lunch.

I really want these restaurants to do well, but I'm disappointed when I hear stories like this, because it further delays my return to restaurants. I will just continue cooking at home.

I've also noticed that places like Crest Foods on 23rd, which did a lot better after the mask mandate went into effect, have seemingly stopped even the appearance of enforcing it. You know it's gotten bad when even the store manager isn't wearing a mask as well as several employees.

People have decided, "I'm over it," and they are "getting back to their lives" (read: not wearing a ****ing mask and gathering wherever the hell they want, shoulder to shoulder, in whatever quantities they want) .

Meanwhile, aside from some lip service here and there, our leaders, from the city level to Stitt to Trump, just shrug their shoulders and watch the train wreck.

[Bill Robertson]

Yes I seen a report that early numbers are in for the seasonal flu and so far the numbers are way down over normal.

I hope so. I got my shot.
Everyone wear your masks, keep your distance and get a friggen flu shot!!!!!

[TheTravellers]

Anecdotally, a friend mentioned that even previously vigilant places, such as Cafe Cuvee, seem to be packing them in more than they were. I guess they had a wedding party for lunch.

I really want these restaurants to do well, but I'm disappointed when I hear stories like this, because it further delays my return to restaurants. I will just continue cooking at home.

I've also noticed that places like Crest Foods on 23rd, which did a lot better after the mask mandate went into effect, have seemingly stopped even the appearance of enforcing it. You know it's gotten bad when even the store manager isn't wearing a mask as well as several employees.

People have decided, "I'm over it," and they are "getting back to their lives" (read: not wearing a ****ing mask and gathering wherever the hell they want, shoulder to shoulder, in whatever quantities they want) .

Meanwhile, aside from some lip service here and there, our leaders, from the city level to Stitt to Trump, just shrug their shoulders and watch the train wreck.

You should report that Crest to the Action Line.

[soonerguru]

You should report that Crest to the Action Line.

Will do. Thanks.

[Canoe]

They’ve been saying that a lot of the spread had been from small family gatherings indoors. More people are wearing masks in public places but they let their guard down when they’re inside with close family members, who can just as easily give the virus to them. I worry about people having family gatherings for the holidays that are coming up.

Family gatherings are important and part of our culture. Whenever we gather we take proper precautions given the nature of the virus.

[Pete]

If family gatherings have much to do with the spread, the coming holidays are going to be a big problem.

[d-usa]

The problem is that families usually don’t wear masks when together. But if you have 5 separate parts of the family meeting up, and one of them doesn’t follow precautions every day, then all the precautions everybody else has taken are worthless at that point.

Your quarantine circle isn’t just everybody in your own circle, it’s everybody in the circles of everybody in your circle.

[Pete]

796 new cases today; 7-day rolling average is 1,130.

3 additional reported deaths.

[SEMIweather]

There were noticeable case increases that were traced back to gatherings around Memorial Day and 4th of July, and those are traditionally outdoor holidays. I'm very worried about what is likely to result from Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year's Eve gatherings, given that those are traditionally indoor holidays.

[pw405]

Apologies for the lack of updates. Been a pretty brutal ~6 weeks at work: Multiple converging deadlines, projects, disasters, and 11 hour days, etc. etc.

I haven't really been keeping up with the discussion in this thread much, but I continue to track the data coming out. In what should be a surprise to nobody, OK's Covid situation is a complete disaster.

Month Summary
Since my last update, September went on to set a record for highest cases/day and highest total case, second highest deaths/day and total deaths. October's cases are on track to blow the previous highest monthly case record completely out of the water. At our current rate, October will end with ~34,500 cases and ~240 deaths.


Trends

Looking at 7/14 day avg. cases vs. 7 day avg. deaths, we can see that the recent range-bound average deaths broke out of the range and is back near all time highs. The 7-day case avg. continues to break records: October 11th, October 12th, October 14th and October 15th were new all-time highs.



The 7/14/21 day case average trend shows some strange convergence where all 3 averages seem to be increasing at very similar rates.


NEW GRAPH! I

In an effort to understand if there is a relationship between deaths & hospital visits, I created this trend.

The "R7 Avg. DoD Hospital Visits" is calculated by looking at the daily "Hospitalized Ever" figure reported by the state. This is a rolling tally of all patients seen in the hospital over the prior 24 hours. This is not the total patients IN the hospital. I subtract the current day figure from the prior day. Then, I add 7 of these values and divide by 7. The idea being that patients with Covid who visit the hospital are likely the higher risk patients with symptoms severe enough to get checked out. Most are discharged, some will stay. This gives us a better idea of the type of patient getting a positive diagnosis. For example, the ~20 somethings going to house parties aren't likely to visit the hospital based merely on a positive test. However, the 65+ patients with pre-existing conditions will likely visit the hospital upon getting a positive diagnosis.

My prediction was that a large increase in patients seen in the hospital average may be a leading indicator for upcoming deaths.

The trend is quite clear on the recent spike where Avg. 7 day hospital visits increased by about 58%: (From 55 to 87 during the first 10 days of October.) About a week later, we see 7-day average deaths increase by 66% (From ~6 to ~10).



(Open images in new browser tab to view full-resolution. On mobile, you're probably better to open in new tab and download to device so you can zoom easily).

Reminder: Mask goes over mouth & nose. Wear it. Hands need to be washed more. Stay away from each other.

[pw405]

There were noticeable case increases that were traced back to gatherings around Memorial Day and 4th of July, and those are traditionally outdoor holidays. I'm very worried about what is likely to result from Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year's Eve gatherings, given that those are traditionally indoor holidays.

This is a good point. I've already started psychological warfare on my family to make them understand: We will not celebrate Thanksgiving in the traditional manner, if at all. We will not celebrate Christmas in the traditional manner, if at all.

[Canoe]

This is a good point. I've already started psychological warfare on my family to make them understand: We will not celebrate Thanksgiving in the traditional manner, if at all. We will not celebrate Christmas in the traditional manner, if at all.

I urge you not to abandoned your traditions. They are more important than you realize.

[Rover]

I urge you not to abandoned your traditions. They are more important than you realize.

When rote actions are more important than your family’s health and well being, you have to question what’s really important to you....going through the motions of something or truly loving and caring for your loved ones. The real tradition worth saving is love of family and worship of our God.

And everyone probably knows how important traditions are to them without people telling them they don’t even know for themselves.

[dankrutka]

I urge you not to abandoned your traditions. They are more important than you realize.

Traditions are important, but so is individual and communal health. We are canceling our family Thanksgiving tradition because it would be difficult to hold safety. There’s just too many families. If your family can’t hold your events outdoors and socially distanced then you *should* consider cancelling. But if you can adapt it to be outdoors and socially distanced then enjoy it. We’re going to adapt it and meet with small groups in safer set ups.

[Plutonic Panda]

My family and I will continue to celebrate our traditions and I’ll report back after New Years when nothing happened and we still enjoyed each other and had a great time being together. To those who don’t I hope you enjoy living under a rock for no reason but fear.

[kukblue1]

We will have a vaccine and much better treatment by Christmas. Patience people patience. We are getting closer every day

[pw405]

I urge you not to abandoned your traditions. They are more important than you realize.

We'll catch 'em next year.

[soonerguru]

My family and I will continue to celebrate our traditions and I’ll report back after New Years when nothing happened and we still enjoyed each other and had a great time being together. To those who don’t I hope you enjoy living under a rock for no reason but fear.

No reason but fear? I have no words.