October 2020 - General Weather Discussion

[Anonymous.]

Quiet and beautiful fall weather continues. We are still drying out and October is showing little to no relief in the moisture department.

Will focus attention this coming week on tropical development in the GOM.

[Anonymous.]

Dry air is fanning out across the majority of the country ahead of tropical system Delta in the GOM. Thus, above normal temperatures in the 80s will persist through the weekend, little to no clouds in sight. Lows in the 50s.

Still no solid rain chances appearing in the forecast, maybe something around the 13-14th.

[Bill Robertson]

I'm finding out how spoiled I am. My car A/C is out and they're waiting on parts. Above 80 It's uncomfortable, around 90 it's miserable. Probably 10 of my first 12 cars didn't have A/C and I was just fine.

[Anonymous.]

Tomorrow: Wednesday might be the last "hot" day for a while. Temperatures in OKC will be near 90 ahead of a front that will come across the state early Thursday morning. Thursday looks cool and windy.

Weekend: Temperatures into the weekend will rebound into the 70s before another front Sunday night into Monday. Dropping temperatures even further.

Moisture: Still no solid rain chances showing up, next shot at rain looks like the system coming through Sunday-Monday. Drought continues to build back in from the west. Nowhere in the state has had more than a tenth of an inch of rain in three weeks. At this rate, winter fire season will be pretty terrible.

[Pete]

^

Thank you, as always.

[Anonymous.]

Slight chance of a rain shower or two anytime over the next few evenings. The best chances will be across N and NE parts of the state. Nothing significant from the looks of it. The best shot looks like Thursday evening accompanying another cold front that will knock high temperatures from the 80s back down into the 50s for the weekend.

Looking ahead, things begin getting interesting Monday into Tuesday with a strong storm coming out of the SW part of the country. The track looks to be pretty classic for a major southern plains winter storm, however it looks like it temperatures will not be cold enough for a significant part of the state. Far NW OK will have the best shot at winter precipitation, while everyone else could get a nice cold rain.

Will keep monitoring this as it approaches, but it looks like it could be a nice relief from the drought.

[BoulderSooner]

thank you

[BG918]

GFS toying around with ice accumulations in a narrow band through OK, this will be interesting to watch. It could be a "fine line" between cold rain, ice and snow.

[Anonymous.]

Models continue to hint at colder air further south. However, ground temperatures will be high, so elevated surfaces will be what to keep an eye on.

[Anonymous.]

I can't believe this is a real output for Tuesday. GFS is wildly bullish on cold air, plus a less broken upper level low.

We are approaching window for NAM to get involved so we can see more solutions. But if the GFS model snapshot below came true, we would have some ice and then 4-7 inches of snow across a solid portion of I-44 corridor.

[SEMIweather]

OKC following up its first measurable April snowfall in 31 years with its first measurable October snowfall in 27 years would be something.

[Anonymous.]

GFS has calmed down some and is breaking the storm up a little more so it would eject into the plains in pieces. Right now looks like the best shot for frozen precipitation in C OK would be Monday evening into Tuesday.

[BG918]

Rainfall chances through Thursday, if this pans out this is great news for holding off the drought entering the drier winter months

[Bobby821]

WINTER STORM WATCH Out includes OKC Metro area

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
327 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...Periods of Freezing Rain and Sleet Likely Late Tonight Through
Early Wednesday...

Logan-Payne-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Kiowa-Jackson-Tillman-Comanche-Cotton-Hardeman-Foard-
Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-
Including the cities of Guthrie, Stillwater, Anadarko, Hinton,
Yukon, Concho, El Reno, Mustang, Oklahoma City, Chandler, Stroud,
Prague, Meeker, Davenport, Wellston, Chickasha, Tuttle, Purcell,
Newcastle, Blanchard, Norman, Moore, Hobart, Snyder, Altus,
Frederick, Lawton, Walters, Temple, Quanah, Crowell, Vernon,
Sheppard AFB, Wichita Falls, Munday, Knox City, Seymour,
Archer City, Holliday, Lakeside City, and Scotland
327 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of
one tenth to four tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and southwest Oklahoma and
northern Texas.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Freeze conditions could kill crops, other
sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

[SoonersFan12]

Having a winter warning this early is bullcrap, how about waiting until December?

[Anonymous.]

Monday: OKC will be right on the cusp of the freezing line. W sides highest chance of elevated ice accumulation.

Tuesday: probably a dry period somewhere Monday night into Tuesday morning. Then another wave of precipitation comes in Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will likely be the highest chance of ice accumulation.

Wednesday: Most of state should rise above freezing except for areas in far W OK.


There is a chance that places that get any heavier frozen precipitation that accumulates, will actually cool the air temperatures near the surface and may lead to more freezing rain.


Monday:



Tuesday:



Wednesday:

[Bunty]

I will believe those projected 3 to 4" plus rain amounts when I see them.

Emily Sutton discusses the storm for 19 minutes:
https://www.facebook.com/emilyrsutto...27655527972501

[Bunty]

Having a winter warning this early is bullcrap, how about waiting until December?

Yeah, like for a white Christmas, but not one of those rare blizzards, please.

[SoonersFan12]

Weather is not cold enough to become ice which is good

[LakeEffect]

Weather is not cold enough to become ice which is good

On an elevated surface, it's going to be cold enough to ice.

6:21 am at my house near 9th & Bryant in Edmond and my weather station says the dewpoint is 31.8F and the temp is 32.7F .

[Anonymous.]

Ice storm warning has been issued for I-44 corridor with emphasis just north of it. Tulsa looks like it will be just east of the main action and be mostly cold rain.


Temperatures running a few degrees colder than forecasted originally so far. Thus heavier icing is being pulled a little further south/east this morning. Roads should be mostly okay other than bridges.

The main concern will be all elevated surfaces, including trees with majority of foilage still attached. Power interruptions will be common by Tuesday afternoon.

Short-range models end the heavier precipitation later this evening and keep showers and drizzle going until heavier round of winter precipitation moving in by Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be key heading through Tues night into Wed as warming is expected.

[BoulderSooner]

Ice storm warning has been issued for I-44 corridor with emphasis just north of it. Tulsa looks like it will be just east of the main action and be mostly cold rain.


Temperatures running a few degrees colder than forecasted originally so far. Thus heavier icing is being pulled a little further south/east this morning. Roads should be mostly okay other than bridges.

The main concern will be all elevated surfaces, including trees with majority of foilage still attached. Power interruptions will be common by Tuesday afternoon.

Short-range models end the heavier precipitation later this evening and keep showers and drizzle going until heavier round of winter precipitation moving in by Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be key heading through Tues night into Wed as warming is expected.

lots and lots of ICE coming down at Tinker

[Bunty]

On an elevated surface, it's going to be cold enough to ice.

6:21 am at my house near 9th & Bryant in Edmond and my weather station says the dewpoint is 31.8F and the temp is 32.7F .

Similar to Stillwater. 32.5 with freezing rain a little before noon. Ice trying to accumulate on roofs. Weather station not freezing up, so far. Things started here at 3:30 am with thunder and lightning.

[SoonersFan12]

I spoke too soon

[Anonymous.]

Freezing line is way overextended from forecast. Will likely see Ice Storm Warning expanded. Central OK is particularly deep in the freezing temperature area and everything falling from the sky will accumulate across the entire metro.

Pre heat homes and charge all batteries now before you lose power here in OKC. Power crews will be working non stop from the looks of this.