Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[C_M_25]

The narrative is that you don’t control a pandemic by ignoring it exists. This idea that if you stick your head in the sand and if you don’t know how bad it really is, then it isn’t bad at all, is a fast leap off a tall cliff. Maybe we could make it go away by just not testing at all and reclassifying the deaths and hospital stays.

Since when is reality and truth a “narrative”?

NO!!! Our daily numbers are NOT truth!! They are a representation of cause and effect. We test more, and the daily rates go up. People around here cling to the daily rates of infection and act like the world is ending; yet, this is the least diagnostic number for what is really happening right now. Want a good diagnostic tool? Look at the R numbers for the states. Look at the percent positive rates. Are they going up and down?

Anytime somebody questions the validity in our daily ramblings around the case numbers, they are obliterated as trying to dismiss this virus. Nothing can be further from the truth. We’re simply pointing out that it’s flawed analysis when the reality is there is likely far more cases than what has been represented. Caution must be taken when comparing directly to our peers in other states when looking purely at daily case rates because of these issues. Yet here we are: “Oklahoma is top 10 in daily case numbers blah blah blah. We’re terrible. The world is ending here.” The reality is that we are no worse or better than our peers. The entire US is failing miserably at containment, but you will never know it given the bias in testing.

[soonerguru]

This forum has become a broken record, with a series of repeated arguments in a circular pattern.

My question to CM and Bill is: Oklahoma's positive case rate per capita, as Pete reported, is fifth in nation. Are you arguing that we really are not the fifth worst state in the nation in this category?

I really don't understand the preoccupation with the number of tests.

To wit, if we began testing a whole bunch more people and our positivity rate went down, then I would understand your argument.

But, to be honest, I have no clue what you are arguing. It seems like you are just reflexively defending Oklahoma for some reason, but you haven't made a compelling case that our infection rate is not fifth worst in the nation. Do you think the White House guidance is off?

How do you think Oklahoma is doing managing this virus?

[soonerguru]

BREAKING: Donald J. Trump and Melania Trump both have Covid-19. Guess it's not a hoax anymore.

[Bunty]

BREAKING: Donald J. Trump and Melania Trump both have Covid-19. Guess it's not a hoax anymore.

If they both don't get sick, Trump will lead the way more than ever in that there is no need for most people to take COVID-19 seriously.

[soonergolfer]

You know that Trump will be complaining that he can’t be on the campaign trail next week.

[Bunty]

You know that Trump will be complaining that he can’t be on the campaign trail next week.

I predict he will be back on it in two weeks. It's a good time for him to prove what he was touting as a remedy last spring, Hydroxychloroquine, works.

[soonerguru]

I predict he will be back on it in two weeks. It's a good time for him to prove what he was touting as a remedy last spring, Hydroxychloroquine, works.

Remember: he took it to "prevent" getting Covid. Clearly that bombed. And, as you have pointed out, he is in the high-risk category and should take better care of himself to avoid exposure.

Hope he didn't infect Joe at the debate. He certainly was spreading lots of droplets into the air for an hour and a half.

[josh]

I predict he will be back on it in two weeks. It's a good time for him to prove what he was touting as a remedy last spring, Hydroxychloroquine, works.

Except, you know. It doesn’t.

But maybe he’ll practice what he preached and inject disinfection into himself and solve his and all of our problems at once.

[Pete]

You're refusing to look at data and only data. Using data out of context to make the situation look worse than it is misuses data. The situation is bad enough without noting where we rank in new cases based on numbers that are only higher because testing volume has increased. We have only raised to 5th because we are testing more. Would you feel better if we were 25th but still only testing an average of 5000 per day. Then our positives would be around 500 per day and we would be somewhere in the bottom 20. And. Again, I'm just talking new case data and using it to compare to other states or even just to discuss how well or badly we're doing. And please stop bringing up deaths and hospitalizations. I've already conceded that they are very concerning.

Tell all that to the White House task force and every single other body that follows and reports on this.

[Bill Robertson]

My question to CM and Bill is: Oklahoma's positive case rate per capita, as Pete reported, is fifth in nation. Are you arguing that we really are not the fifth worst state in the nation in this category?

I really don't understand the preoccupation with the number of tests.

We don't know if we're 5th 50th or where. To accurately rank this they would have to include positive results and testing volume vs capita. They only use positive results which are driven by testing volume.
I don't understand the preoccupation with a daily number that isn't taken in the context of testing volume. My graphs, again using numbers taken directly from the OSDH, show clearly that testing volume is the reason for the past months high positives. It just is.
I'm NOT saying we're getting better or that we are anywhere near control of this virus. Just that the numbers that so many look at as gospel aren't reflective of how we're really doing.

[Bill Robertson]

Tell all that to the White House task force and every single other body that follows and reports on this.

From what I can tell the Task Force just uses new positive case numbers divided by population. I've clearly shown that the positives are controlled in large part by testing volume.

[TheTravellers]

We don't know if we're 5th 50th or where. To accurately rank this they would have to include positive results and testing volume vs capita. They only use positive results which are driven by testing volume.
I don't understand the preoccupation with a daily number that isn't taken in the context of testing volume. My graphs, again using numbers taken directly from the OSDH, show clearly that testing volume is the reason for the past months high positives. It just is.
I'm NOT saying we're getting better or that we are anywhere near control of this virus. Just that the numbers that so many look at as gospel aren't reflective of how we're really doing.

Aren't there sites (Johns Hopkins, covidtracking.com, etc.) that do put up numbers that are testing volume per capita, and break it down other ways, in addition to that?

[kukblue1]

Just because you test positive doesn't mean your sick. Test could be picking up Dead virus or such a small load that you are not going to get sick or give it to others. That is is the problem with hanging everything on daily numbers or numbers really in general. How many are going in and out of hospitals and how many are dying. That will tell more of the story.

[Bill Robertson]

Aren't there sites (Johns Hopkins, covidtracking.com, etc.) that do put up numbers that are testing volume per capita, and break it down other ways, in addition to that?

Yes. But most people only pay attention to the one basic daily bew positive number that the OSDH posts. It takes time and effort to dig into sites that actually break down data. It's easy to just look at a daily post or some ranking without looking into what went didn't go into calculating that ranking.

[Pete]

1.190 new cases today; 7-day rolling average is 1,006.

623 hospitalizations, +13 from yesterday.

9 additional reported deaths.

129 new cases in OK County, which is the lowest amount in 2 weeks. The county has 20% of the state population but today's # represents only 10.8% of the total cases.

[dankrutka]

Just because you test positive doesn't mean your sick. Test could be picking up Dead virus or such a small load that you are not going to get sick or give it to others. That is is the problem with hanging everything on daily numbers or numbers really in general. How many are going in and out of hospitals and how many are dying. That will tell more of the story.

What are you talking about? Yes, testing positive for COVID matters because... THAT'S HOW IT SPREADS. You've been posting and reading in this thread for months, but it's like everyday you wake up having not learned a single thing and then posting the first idea that pops in your head.

[jccouger]

1.190 new cases today; 7-day rolling average is 1,006.

623 hospitalizations, +13 from yesterday.

9 additional reported deaths.

129 new cases in OK County, which is the lowest amount in 2 weeks. The county has 20% of the state population but today's # represents only 10.8% of the total cases.

Which counties are the "hot spots" right now?

[dankrutka]

Best poster I've seen about COVID-19 prevention courtesy of Zeynep Tufekci. Click for larger image.

[josh]

Just because you test positive doesn't mean your sick. Test could be picking up Dead virus or such a small load that you are not going to get sick or give it to others. That is is the problem with hanging everything on daily numbers or numbers really in general. How many are going in and out of hospitals and how many are dying. That will tell more of the story.

You mean symptomatic. If you test positive, you have the virus. People get the virus but are asymmetric, but they still have the virus.

[kukblue1]

What are you talking about? Yes, testing positive for COVID matters because... THAT'S HOW IT SPREADS. You've been posting and reading in this thread for months, but it's like everyday you wake up having not learned a single thing and then posting the first idea that pops in your head.

It's not a 100% accurate test. You could be false positive. You could of had covid at one time never tested but now you have to go in and get a test and you test positive but it's picking up dead cells in your body. So why it does matter just because you test positive doesn't mean your a 100% spreader. There are many people out there spreading it that never been tested. That is why the daily numbers are just MEH a number.

[BDP]

Best Covid article I've read in a long while. (0% politics)

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ndemic/616548/

Very informative and anyone who is interested in the current understanding of the transmission of this virus and what the cumulative data is actually showing us should read it.

It reinforces why large and/or prolonged indoor gatherings, especially unmasked, are not a good idea. The contact tracing data is beginning to show that a few people, maybe even very few, are transmitting it to many people, often in a single event and especially when indoors with others for a period of time.

It's interesting because the concept of "reopening", especially in the US, has really meant reopening bars and indoor dining and allowing larger gatherings. Outside of the most strict "lockdowns" or "shutdowns", a large of amount of retail and even offices remained open, at least partially. But whenever a state or community "reopens", that is, opens bars and restaurants and allows large indoor events, a rise in cases, hospitalizations and deaths follow. This is because these are the places and events where groups of people gather, in close contact, while not wearing masks.

[BDP]

Then there's this study:

You're Most Likely to Get COVID From People This Age, New Study Showsl

Spoiler alert:

According to the study, It's from people age 20-45.

Since the pandemic began, there have been endless questions not just about how COVID spreads but about who exactly is spreading it. After all, one of the keys to slowing down coronavirus transmission is knowing where it's coming from. Are you more likely to contract the virus from your kid or a coworker? Now, new research has provided a clearer picture of which age group you're most likely to get COVID from. According to a new study, adults between the ages of 20 and 45 are the primary source of coronavirus spread.

The large contact tracing study involving more than three million people in India was published in the journal Science on Sept. 30. Researchers collected data through Aug. 1 and found that most secondary cases were the result of contact with index cases in people aged 20 to 45.

[Rover]

Non hepa filters rated MERV-13 can catch most viruses, but are more expensive.

It's not a 100% accurate test. You could be false positive. You could of had covid at one time never tested but now you have to go in and get a test and you test positive but it's picking up dead cells in your body. So why it does matter just because you test positive doesn't mean your a 100% spreader. There are many people out there spreading it that never been tested. That is why the daily numbers are just MEH a number.

May be meh to some, but others understand what it means and why it's important. I know there are many still clinging to this outdated and disproved theory that it only looks bad because we are testing, but deaths, hospital stays, and serious side effects keep rising. Those who deny will just keep denying, but it doesn't change reality.

[kukblue1]

May be meh to some, but others understand what it means and why it's important. I know there are many still clinging to this outdated and disproved theory that it only looks bad because we are testing, but deaths, hospital stays, and serious side effects keep rising. Those who deny will just keep denying, but it doesn't change reality.

I think I said Hospitalization and Deaths were the key numbers. The daily number is MEH a number. I don't think it really tells the whole story.

[Pete]

I think I said Hospitalization and Deaths were the key numbers. The daily number is MEH a number. I don't think it really tells the whole story.

Hospitalizations and deaths are daily numbers.


I say this with all due respect: you need to seriously consider ceasing to post on this thread.