Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[pw405]

Figured I'd get some graph action going now that we've got all the August data.

Summary
With August data complete, not many surprises at this point. August cases wound up almost identical to July (-1.2%) deaths increased 68.2% Month-over-month, and August deaths increased 30% over April, the previous record.


Averages
As Pete mentioned, month ends with a peak in the 7-day case average. I've noted 5 new records for the 7-day death average in August.


Same data - but all the way back to April 1st for reference during "first wave":


7/14/21 Day Case Averages - somewhat concerning short-term trend here, where we see the 7 day leading an increase in the 14 and 21 day averages:



Hospitalizations vs. Deaths
Haven't posted hospital #'s in a while, but they've basically been the same for about a month now. Plotted against the 14-day death average, I'm not entirely sure what to conclude here.

Are patients simply dying at roughly the same rate they are being admitted? Is there some ceiling - either imposed via hospital policy or due to other constraints that has kept the number of patients flat? I feel like this plot provides more questions than answers.

(*Note - the Saturday and Sunday counts are simply a copy of the Friday #'s here.)



If you're on a computer, you can right-click images and view in tab if you would like to zoom in.

Stay safe out there - while part of me wants to think the worst is behind us, I've got a bad feeling about being at such a relatively high daily case count with Fall knocking on the door.

[jn1780]

literally not what the cdc said...

the CDC did not say the death rate of Covid-19 among those currently reported is only 6%... it says that 6% of the deaths have been in people not over age 65, and not 18 and older with an underlying health condition.
here is what they are actually saying. the US is divided into two categories... one category makes up 37.6% of the population (92.6 Million people).. that group is everyone over age 65, and everyone over age 18 with an underlying health condition. everyone else is in group two... the CDC is saying that 6% of deaths have come from group 2, and the other 94% have come from group 1. that is is... they are saying that the group they told us back in March had the highest chance of death, is overwhelmingly seeing the highest deaths.

this isn't that hard... try actually reading

UPDATE SINCE OP UPDATED theirs... yes. if you fall in that one group you are just as safe as the cdc said you would be before hand... but that doesn't mean we just condemn the nearly 40% of the population that doesn't fall into that group.

I don't think it matters of course, because the group with one or more other causes matter too, but the CDC is clearly talking about all groups in their summary over the comorbidities table. This isn't new information, we knew for a long time that this virus hits people with pre-existing conditions the worse. This country was suffering from a "pandemic" of obesity and heart disease before Covid so 94% having a pre-existing condition isn't all that surprising.

Comorbidities
Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ekly/index.htm

[catch22]

Big thanks to Pete and pw405 for the data updates.

That is all.

[jn1780]

Are patients simply dying at roughly the same rate they are being admitted? Is there some ceiling - either imposed via hospital policy or due to other constraints that has kept the number of patients flat? I feel like this plot provides more questions than answers.

Stay safe out there - while part of me wants to think the worst is behind us, I've got a bad feeling about being at such a relatively high daily case count with Fall knocking on the door.

Good questions, I tend to believe that hospitalizations are slow to fall because there is less pressure for hospitals to release or not take in more covid patients to make more room. They can be extra cautious with patients.

The seasonal effect is the elephant in the room. I think it will lead to some increase maybe even a spike.

I have started downloading the county dataset from the county health department and it looks like a lot of this 3 day increase in cases came from Muskogee. Looking more into it, they came from the women's prison up there.

Top 12 Counties - I assume UNKNOWN are out of state students mostly?

County Daily Cases 8-31
MUSKOGEE 161
OKLAHOMA 79
UNKNOWN 78
TULSA 58
CLEVELAND 48
PAYNE 35
COMANCHE 26
CANADIAN 23
CHEROKEE 22
GARFIELD 20
POTTAWATOMIE 11

[Bunty]

Not sure masking up is working. It might just have to run it's course. Pretty much everyone I see when I go inside a store has a mask on. I just don't think these masks help much if any. Pretty sure this virus is going to run it's course masks or not. Seems to me if the masking up was working we would be on a serious downward trend.

I didn't see but a very few people masking up on the White House Lawn the other night. Not arguing that this isn't a seriously wicked virus just don't believe that masks are slowing this thing down much if any.

Masks don't work? Aren't hospitalizations not building? Stillwater Hospital only has 2 covid patients. I would hope masks are better than nothing by allowing in less of the virus, thereby leading to less severe cases.

[d-usa]

By the same argument I could shoot somebody, and of they die during surgery because they are obese and have COPD I didn’t kill them...

[Hollywood]

By the same argument I could shoot somebody, and of they die during surgery because they are obese and have COPD I didn’t kill them...

According to one of our Paramedics who also works in a metro ER as a side gig, yes that would be counted in the COVID numbers based off of scenarios he explained to us.

[Rover]

According to one of our Paramedics who also works in a metro ER as a side gig, yes that would be counted in the COVID numbers based off of scenarios he explained to us.

Good thing the paramedic isn’t responsible for assigning cause of death, that is totally not how it works. There is a primary cause and contributing causes.

[David]

Well I guess we can throw out the numbers on the death count as they are about as inaccurate as can be according to the CDC. Now they say only 6% of the reported deaths are actually from the Covid Virus. What a huge sham this has been. It appears that the people have been mislead in a big way.

If you are under 65 and in decent health you are not dying from this virus. Sure there will be a very rare exception but if your healthy and under 65 the chances of you dying from this virus is so small it doesn't even register.

You should make a note of who told you that bit about the CDC and never trust or believe anything they say ever again. They are misrepresenting data in a way that will almost certainly get more people killed.

[thunderbird]

You should make a note of who told you that bit about the CDC and never trust or believe anything they say ever again. They are misrepresenting data in a way that will almost certainly get more people killed.

I mean, that data is from the CDC. However, 6% of healthy people dying is still kinda alarming.

[Ohwiseone]

OKC City Council currently debating on extending the Mask Ordinance till nov.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oh3h-Si0G7I

Just in case you want to hear, what i am SURE, is going to be a very fun public comment section.

Public Comments are starting now.

[David]

I mean, that data is from the CDC. However, 6% of healthy people dying is still kinda alarming.

The misrepresentation is the claim that the CDC has started saying that only 6% of the deaths previously reported for the pandemic are actually from the virus. It's false because what people are doing is pulling only the deaths that have no additional cause of death listed and claiming they're the only real COVID-19 deaths.

Twitter Removes Claim About CDC And Covid-19 Coronavirus Deaths

If you want to know why the original Tweet was inaccurate or misleading, just read the rest of what the CDC indicated after the 6%: “For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.” Take a gander at what these additional conditions or causes are. They include things such as adult pneumonia, respiratory distress syndrome, respiratory failure, respiratory arrest, other diseases of the respiratory system, and sepsis. Hmmm, these sound very much like the things that Covid-19 can lead to and what can ultimately kill people with severe Covid-19.

It's literally a QAnon sourced conspiracy theory, and anyone spreading it should not be listened to or taken seriously.

[Ohwiseone]

Mask Ordinance is extended until Oct. 20.

I am sure they are going discuss this next month and see if they can push it again, but in all honesty, I do not know how much longer they are going to get the votes.

[foodiefan]

The misrepresentation is the claim that the CDC has started saying that only 6% of the deaths previously reported for the pandemic are actually from the virus. It's false because what people are doing is pulling only the deaths that have no additional cause of death listed and claiming they're the only real COVID-19 deaths.

Twitter Removes Claim About CDC And Covid-19 Coronavirus Deaths



It's literally a QAnon sourced conspiracy theory, and anyone spreading it should not be listened to or taken seriously.

+1

[Pete]

Why oh why do people keep trusting and sharing 'data' and 'information' other than directly from the CDC??

So many complain about 'not knowing what to believe' when we have a group of highly respected scientists to provide everything you need to know.


This fascination with conspiracy theories and shadowy websites is borderline insane.

I suspect there are two major factors at work here: 1) many don't like the facts so go looking for alternatives; and 2) it's far more salacious and fun to think you have somehow unearthed the 'real truth'.

Just read the bloody CDC site and stop using Facebook and Youtube as your source for information; that is if you care about facts instead of utter nonsense.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Mask Ordinance is extended until Oct. 20.

I am sure they are going discuss this next month and see if they can push it again, but in all honesty, I do not know how much longer they are going to get the votes.

Lots of amendments got shot down. One to make it non-mandatory (what?!) and one to make religious institutions exempt.

[TheTravellers]

Why oh why do people keep trusting and sharing 'data' and 'information' other than directly from the CDC??

So many complain about 'not knowing what to believe' when we have a group of highly respected scientists to provide everything you need to know.


This fascination with conspiracy theories and shadowy websites is borderline insane.

I suspect there are two major factors at work here: 1) many don't like the facts so go looking for alternatives; and 2) it's far more salacious and fun to think you have somehow unearthed the 'real truth'.

Just read the bloody CDC site and stop using Facebook and Youtube as your source for information; that is if you care about facts instead of utter nonsense.

+1,000,000

[FighttheGoodFight]

Why oh why do people keep trusting and sharing 'data' and 'information' other than directly from the CDC??

So many complain about 'not knowing what to believe' when we have a group of highly respected scientists to provide everything you need to know.


This fascination with conspiracy theories and shadowy websites is borderline insane.

I suspect there are two major factors at work here: 1) many don't like the facts so go looking for alternatives; and 2) it's far more salacious and fun to think you have somehow unearthed the 'real truth'.

Just read the bloody CDC site and stop using Facebook and Youtube as your source for information; that is if you care about facts instead of utter nonsense.

I do find it so funny as older folks all said nothing on the internet can be trusted but share Facebook garbage conspiracy theories like they are the word of God.

[TheTravellers]

Lots of amendments got shot down. One to make it non-mandatory (what?!) and one to make religious institutions exempt.

I don't understand either of those amendments, at all, just stupid and crazy. No "religious institutions" should be exempt, not ever.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Good news. Rapid testing machines going to all nursing homes in OK, according to Stitt conference. 200 already in place and more shipping out this week. Great news for nursing home folks and keeping them safe.

[Canoe]

Figured I'd get some graph action going now that we've got all the August data.

Summary
With August data complete, not many surprises at this point. August cases wound up almost identical to July (-1.2%) deaths increased 68.2% Month-over-month, and August deaths increased 30% over April, the previous record.


Averages
As Pete mentioned, month ends with a peak in the 7-day case average. I've noted 5 new records for the 7-day death average in August.


Same data - but all the way back to April 1st for reference during "first wave":


7/14/21 Day Case Averages - somewhat concerning short-term trend here, where we see the 7 day leading an increase in the 14 and 21 day averages:



Hospitalizations vs. Deaths
Haven't posted hospital #'s in a while, but they've basically been the same for about a month now. Plotted against the 14-day death average, I'm not entirely sure what to conclude here.

Are patients simply dying at roughly the same rate they are being admitted? Is there some ceiling - either imposed via hospital policy or due to other constraints that has kept the number of patients flat? I feel like this plot provides more questions than answers.

(*Note - the Saturday and Sunday counts are simply a copy of the Friday #'s here.)



If you're on a computer, you can right-click images and view in tab if you would like to zoom in.

Stay safe out there - while part of me wants to think the worst is behind us, I've got a bad feeling about being at such a relatively high daily case count with Fall knocking on the door.

Is the last graph saying that for every 100 people hospitalized per day you can expect about one death? What is the recovery rate for a person hospitalized?

[jdizzle]

I don't understand either of those amendments, at all, just stupid and crazy. No "religious institutions" should be exempt, not ever.

People want to be able to worship Jesus without a mask. And execute their freedoms without worrying about the virus. I'm glad it was shot down, though. Since a lot of people in church are older, it could be very bad.

[Pete]

666 new cases today. Last 3 Tuesdays: 650, 615 and 765.

9 more reported deaths.

[runOKC]

People want to be able to worship Jesus without a mask. And execute their freedoms without worrying about the virus. I'm glad it was shot down, though. Since a lot of people in church are older, it could be very bad.

There is currently an exemption for religious services. The proposed amendment was to *remove* this exemption. It got shot down, so people can still go to religious services without a mask.

[TheTravellers]

People want to be able to worship Jesus without a mask. And execute their freedoms without worrying about the virus. ...

FFS, those are both incredibly stupid reasons, not even inside the bounds of actual logic and reasonable thinking.