Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[d-usa]

CDC is beginning to disagree as more data is becoming available.

[d-usa]

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6931e1_w

“ Asymptomatic infection was common and potentially contributed to undetected transmission, as has been previously reported (1–4). This investigation adds to the body of evidence demonstrating that children of all ages are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection (1–3) and, contrary to early reports (5,6), might play an important role in transmission (7,8).”

[PoliSciGuy]

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6931e1_w

“ Asymptomatic infection was common and potentially contributed to undetected transmission, as has been previously reported (1–4). This investigation adds to the body of evidence demonstrating that children of all ages are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection (1–3) and, contrary to early reports (5,6), might play an important role in transmission (7,8).”

Ah yes, the overnight camp where a bunch of teens (some of whom had covid), who were serving as leaders, met for a multi-day retreat before the camp began and then infected the younger kids. Doesn't really add much to the infectivity and contagiousness of those under 10 though.

This is a good threat by an epidemiologist who walks through what most likely happened at that camp: https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/s...98074804711425

[Pete]

Like, very few total (and all on the first round). Multiple rounds of testing without any positives.

BECAUSE they were kept in a bubble and tested routinely.

That will not be the case with 20,000+ on campus now with all of them coming and going as they please.

[pw405]

A bit overdue for an update on my data posts, but hey, I'm just a random guy on the internet. Also had some computer downtime this week as I had to swap my PC internals to a new case in an ongoing quest for the ultimate high performance machine.

Month Summary.
August still tracking to be the mostly deadly month this year and very easily #2 in case counts:



If we assume that the 3.5 week lag between between 7-day avg. cases and 7-day avg. deaths trends more closely correlating will come true, we should start to see a longer-term downward trend in deaths starting on August 24th.

Of course, that's all based on the assumption that the downward case trends will continue. Yesterday's count of 901 cases was a bit of a surprise for a Saturday being the highest day of the week, and ranking as the 4th highest Saturday ever. Hopefully just a blip.

Top 5 Saturday Case Counts:
#1 - Aug 1: 1,244 cases
#2 - July 25: 965 Cases
#3 - July 18: 916 Cases
#4 - Aug 15: 901 Cases
#5 - Saturday - Aug 8: 825 Cases

Rolling Averages -
The 7 day and 14 day cases are clearly coming down from the insane levels we saw at the start of August.
OKC Mask mandate was July 17th, Tulsa was July 15th. To think: if the mandates had gone in to effect on July 1st, where would we be today?



Case Averages
very promising signs here. Showing the ideal setup: 7 day below the 14 day, and 14 day below the 21 day, indicating a downward trend in new infections that will eventually bring the death counts/rates down:



Totals
While we largely see the same trend structure we do in the other charts, I feel that this paints a more clear impact of the human level of this tragedy: 54 dead Okies since last Saturday. 108 dead & 10,244 Okies infected since Saturday before last.

OK's crude case fatality rate remains at 1.4%. This means of the 10,244 cases in the last 14 days, we should expect 143 to die. (A few of which may already be included in total death counts).



State of OK Weekly Epidemiology Testing

We've been range bound at 9%-10% for specimen testing since the July 3rd week. While it is good to see total cases coming down, this figure really needs to be below 5%, according to CDC. This remains an area of concern. The fact that total specimen counts have been falling isn't re-assuring. To be at or below the target 5% rate, we would need to test ~100,000/week.



For those that aren't "numbers" people, the 657 Oklahomans we've lost can be expressed as the equivalent of 3.9 Federal Building Bombings.
I could only imagine the level of government response that we would see if this was the tragedy we faced:

[Pete]

544 new cases reported today. That is more than the previous 2 Sundays.

4 additional reported deaths, which is the most ever for a Sunday.

[jn1780]

I wish they made county trends more easily accessible in one place. Looks like Oklahoma and Tulsa are still in a downward trend, but increases in other counties are making up the difference.

Like I said before the "magic" number is when percentage of infected is between 1.0 to 2.0 percent(more like 10 to 20 percent in reality so multiply by 10). The difference in that percentage depending on whatever mitigation measure that is in effect for a particular area. Tulsa and Oklahoma County are at 1.7 and 1.4 percent of infected. This is why Hawaii is blowing up even though their doing all the good things like mask mandates. They are nowhere near that threshold. The lower the percentage, the higher risk you could still see exponential explosion.

Edit: This seems to be the best way at looking at every county without having to do my own math, but data is a few days old. https://coronavirus.health.ok.gov/si...3_regional.pdf

[LocoAko]

For a look of how universities reopening is going: https://mobile.twitter.com/ryannovo6...105999880?s=20

Relying on college students to be responsible and maintain social distancing every weekend is hopeless but this looks bad even knowing that. I'm over/under on a month of having to go back to full virtual and solidly feeling the under side right now.

[gopokes88]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/techn...ad/ar-BB17VlsC

[soonerguru]

BECAUSE they were kept in a bubble and tested routinely.

That will not be the case with 20,000+ on campus now with all of them coming and going as they please.

I admit my love of Sooner football, the intelligence of our AD and head coach, and the fact that OU put Dale Bratzler in charge of managing their COVID-19 protocols gave me hope that OU would be one of the few institutions to weather this.

My view is changing somewhat, now, after this week's news. You can see it on Riley's face that he knows he really can't manage this the way he should. His comment about there being no "bubble" like the NBA is the real tell.

It's hard enough to keep young men out of jail, but asking them to socially isolate during the prime of their lives is too much, and there's no way he can enforce it.

It would be great if OU were able to offer an ultimatum: if you want to play, you have to go into isolation for the entire season. Once the season is over, you're on your own. But, alas, OU cannot do that.

As a result, I see no way there won't be large outbreaks on multiple teams, ultimately shutting down college football for 2020. I wish I didn't see things this way but I do.

[pw405]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/techn...ad/ar-BB17VlsC

Very good points made in that article and the referenced data scientist Twitter thread. This theory that large early outbreaks prevent larger, second outbreaks along with changes in individual behavior may be an explanation for the way the Texas vs. OK death trends look. I was reviewing some of the different state data at NYT and was really curious why there are differences in the trends.

Reference: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...rus-cases.html

What is interesting looking at Texas, back in April & May - their deaths were pretty much nil, given a pop. of ~30,000,000. Seven day average deaths barely touched 50, and mostly stayed in the 25-40 deaths/day range. Impressive, given the sizes of Texas largest metro areas.

The death rate, however, went on to reach staggering new highs that generally followed the cases trend, but lagged a few weeks:

Deaths:

Compared to cases:


When looking at OK's Cases trend - it is almost identical to Texas. Practically flat throughout April, May, and first part of June, followed by a dramatic explosion in new cases during the summer:

OK Cases:


Yet, when looking at OK's death trend - we saw a relatively large spike in deaths back in April & May, followed by the current increase we find ourselves in today. For our death chart to look like Texas, we would need the average deaths/day to skyrocket in to the ~100 range. That seems unlikely. Hopefully.



So, perhaps the explanation is similar to what the author proposed: our second "summer" outbreak in occurred in areas where there may have been some existing immunity in the population.

While we know there is widely agreed upon evidence of mask physically stopping respiratory droplets from traveling as far - perhaps the psychological factor of remembering to get your mask when you leave the house (along with your keys, wallet, phone, etc.) is an additional factor in influencing individual behavior to take more precautions in general.

[C_M_25]

I just heard that they’re still having their big calf fry event up in Stillwater. They should have never tried to open schools and colleges this year. Couple this with sturgis, and we’re going to see a massive spike soon.

Good luck if you planned on traveling internationally next year...

[soonerguru]

I just heard that they’re still having their big calf fry event up in Stillwater. They should have never tried to open schools and colleges this year. Couple this with sturgis, and we’re going to see a massive spike soon.

Good luck if you planned on traveling internationally next year...

Have you seen the video of people getting down on the dance floor at Tumbleweed? Looked like hundreds of maskless revelers. Also, bars full to the brim on Campus Corner in Norman and the Strip in Stillwater. I saw a photo of a massive fraternity party in Norman (while OSU has a sorority with 23 cases). This is just going to be a massive ****show.

It's really sad that people cannot do what they are supposed to to keep this in check, and we are headed for more shutdowns.

[soonerguru]

Updated Oklahoma school Covid-19 case list. This data provided by Oklahoma Source. This is after only a couple of days of school. Insane.

Achille Achille Junior High Staff Y Affected site closed until further notice
Avant not specified Staff Y Start date delayed to September 8
Barnsdall not specified Staff (2) Y Start date delayed to August 24
Bennington not specified Not specified Y online until 8/17
Boise City not specified Staff Y Delayed start date to Aug 31
Boswell not specified Staff Y moved to online learning
Broken Arrow multiple sites Staff N/A 98 staff quarantined/33 positive; school start delayed to Sept 3
Brushy unknown Staff N cleaning; contact tracing
Canton not specified Staff N school began as scheduled on August 13
Clinton Clinton High School Student N/A School starts August 20
Clinton unspecified elementary site Staff N/A School starts August 20
Colbert Westward Lower Elementary Staff Y moved to distance learning through Aug 27
Coweta Coweta HS students N close contacts quarantined
Crescent not specified Students Y start delayed to August 24
Crooked Oak Central Oak Elementary Staff N recommended protocols followed
Dickson not specified Students N affected classes quarantined
Duncan Will Rogers Elementary (Pre-K center) Not specified N affected class quarantined
Edmond not specified Staff N/A blended learing begins 8/17
Elk City Elk City Intermediate School Student N cleaning; contact tracing
Ft. Towson not specified Staff Y Start of school postponed to 8/26
Goodwell not specified, but in conjuction with Texhoma Public Schools Not specified N mandatory masks beginning August 17
Guymon Guymon Central Junior High School and High School Both N mandatory masks beginning August 17; cleaning; contact tracing
Hartshorne not specified Staff N disinfecting protocols; contact tracing
Heavener not specified Staff Y start date delayed to August 20
Hilldale not specified Not specified N close contacts quarantined
Hulbert Hulbert HS student unk unknown
Indianola not specified Staff Y start date delayed to August 25
Kingfisher Heritage Elementary Staff N cleaning; contact tracing
Kingfisher Kingfisher Middle School Student N contact tracing in progress
Kingston nutrition department Staff Y online until further notice
Konawa not specified Student Y Closed until August 28
Lawton Eisenhower High School Student N Football practice suspended for 48 hours
Mannsville not specified Staff Y close for two weeks; classes resume August 24
Maryetta (Stilwell, OK) not specified Not specified N cleaning; contact tracing
McAlester not specified Students Y start date delayed to Aug 26
Mid-Del Carl Albert MS Staff (4) N unknown
Moore PS Moore HS Student N cleaning; contact tracing
Moore PS Westmoore HS Both N cleaning; contact tracing; 17 students quarantined
Moore PS Eastlake Elementary Not specified N close contacts quarantined
Morrison Morrison Elementary Student N close contacts quarantined; added face covering requirement in grades 4-6
Muskogee multiple sites Both N close contacts quarantined
New Lima New Lima HS Students N Affected students on 2 week quarantine
Newcastle Newcastle Elementary Student N cleaning; contact tracing
OKCPS and others Metro Tech Center Student N cleaning; contact tracing
Oktaha Oktaha HS Student unk Athlete; games postponed
Pauls Valley Pauls Valley High School, other buildings Students (2); Staff (2) Y Contact tracing and quarantine; Start date delayed until August 17, virtual until August 24; non-essential employees staying home 8/17
Poteau Poteau Elementary Staff unk unknown
Private Bishop Kelley 3 students N Hybrid learning in place
Private St Elizabeth Ann Seton Catholic School (Edmond) student N cleaning; contact tracing
Putnam City Administration Building Staff N/A distance learing begins 8/27
Quinton not specified Student N students in affected class quarantined until 8/24
Santa Fe South Penn Elementary/SFS Middle School Staff N contact tracing
Sapulpa Sapulpa High School Both N start date delayed until August 24
Savanna Savanna HS Student Y Elementary as scheduled;MS and HS distance until at least Aug 21
Sayre Sayre Elementary/Early Childhood Not specified N cleaning; contact tracing
Seiling not specified Staff N quarantine of close contacts
Shawnee not specified Staff N contact tracing
Silo Silo Elementary Student N Class quarantined
Stigler Stigler Grade School Not specified N cleaning; contact tracing
Stuart not specified Staff unk decision pending
Tupelo Tupelo HS Staff Y start date delayed to 8/27
Varnum not specified Staff Y start date delayed until August 24
Wagoner multiple sites Staff unk close contacts quarantined
Yukon not specified Staff Y moved to distance learning

[gopokes88]

https://twitter.com/yinonw/status/12...941249024?s=21

[Bunty]

Have you seen the video of people getting down on the dance floor at Tumbleweed? Looked like hundreds of maskless revelers. Also, bars full to the brim on Campus Corner in Norman and the Strip in Stillwater. I saw a photo of a massive fraternity party in Norman (while OSU has a sorority with 23 cases). This is just going to be a massive ****show.

It's really sad that people cannot do what they are supposed to to keep this in check, and we are headed for more shutdowns.

As long as hospital rooms don't start filling up in Stillwater and Norman, I don't think classes will have to go back online. They won't, if older people in those towns take precautions when going out. The unmasked Tulsa Trump rally didn't turn out to be as big of a public health disaster some feared. So college kids partying close together may not turn out to be a big disaster, either.

[Bunty]

I just heard that they’re still having their big calf fry event up in Stillwater. They should have never tried to open schools and colleges this year. Couple this with sturgis, and we’re going to see a massive spike soon.

Calf Fry is held early in May and was canceled this year. What Tumbleweed did this past weekend was called Weedstock. It's supposedly a take off on Tumbleweed, not pot.

I have nothing against reopening schools and colleges if proper safety measures are taken, most of all requiring mask wear. It will be interesting to see how long classes can go on to see if those opposed to it are right.

[dankrutka]

I am glad the college classes I am taking this semester are online. (well these would have been on line without covid 19). I'll just continue to stay home and try to stay safe.

I am glad the college classes I am teaching this semester are online. (they would have been face to face without covid 19). I'll just continue to stay home and try to stay safe.

[dankrutka]

No one said that kids don't spread it, but rather that kids spread it at a much lower rate than adults, there's very little proof that they spread it to adults, and the least likely to succeed from virtual learning (3rd grade and younger) are much more likely to be asymptomatic and not display severe symptoms.

I have not read this research. In fact, there was a study that suggested that kids actually spread COVID-19 far more than adults, but some researchers are calling that study into question now. However, I have not seen evidence kids don't spread it. It's also a reminder not to point to one study for proof of anything big, but try to understand what multiple studies are showing and corroborate those findings. Anyway, I'd like to see the research on this. Thanks.

[dankrutka]

I believe that EVERY one of those 9 cases are from players who left Norman. Those who stayed here didn't test positive. Who would have thought that college campuses might be safer than home, when protocols are in place. But yes, when you have more college kids there, more and more won't follow protocols.

This is incorrect. 75% of the team stayed in Norman during their time off and those who stayed around were among the positive tests.

[jedicurt]

No one said that kids don't spread it, but rather that kids spread it at a much lower rate than adults, there's very little proof that they spread it to adults, and the least likely to succeed from virtual learning (3rd grade and younger) are much more likely to be asymptomatic and not display severe symptoms.

is this were you once again post a bunch of links to studies that you say prove this, when the studies themselves say they don't, just like you did back in July?

because no one is still saying there are any true studies that were created specifically to look at the the spread rate in children, that has yet to be completed or provide results. just like there is very little proof they they spread it to adults, and there is very little proof that they don't.

[brian72]

Your not going to stop the spread of COVID. No way with the younger people doing what they want to do. I’ll just wear my mask and keep washing my hands. Good luck to everyone.

[gopokes88]

Your not going to stop the spread of COVID. No way with the younger people doing what they want to do. I’ll just wear my mask and keep washing my hands. Good luck to everyone.

Its not the worst thing in the world for huge chunks of young people to catch it while on a college campus. Builds immunity for a chunk of the pop that will be fine. If mom and dad are worried about their kid coming home and giving them covid, then don't let them come home.

[jedicurt]

Its not the worst thing in the world for huge chunks of young people to catch it while on a college campus. Builds immunity for a chunk of the pop that will be fine. If mom and dad are worried about their kid coming home and giving them covid, then don't let them come home.

except we don't know how long immunity lasts... so that is a false statement.

[jedicurt]

Its not the worst thing in the world for huge chunks of young people to catch it while on a college campus. Builds immunity for a chunk of the pop that will be fine. If mom and dad are worried about their kid coming home and giving them covid, then don't let them come home.

infact the new CDC guidance suggests that they aren't willing to confirm that immunity lasts anything longer than 3 months

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...uarantine.html

we honestly do not know how long it will last.

People who have tested positive for COVID-19 do not need to quarantine or get tested again for up to 3 months as long as they do not develop symptoms again. People who develop symptoms again within 3 months of their first bout of COVID-19 may need to be tested again if there is no other cause identified for their symptoms.

so they also aren't even sure about the 3 months... they are basically saying, you are immune for 3 months, unless of course, you aren't immune for that long.