Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)

[mugofbeer]

In 6 months you think there would be a spit test or something that could get accurate results quickly.

CNBC has reported a test that is still being developed that would be like a breathalyzer - almost immediate, if it works.

[pw405]

Figured I would update the ol' graphs. Because that's what you do in 2020. You sit around making pandemic trend lines because.... well... not much else going on.

Of course Monday's giant case load drug the 7-day average up as already discussed.

I included a faint trace of the 14 day average for reference.

*Note - I had to adjust scaling, so the visibly observed slope when compared to the prior plots I've posted will look less steep. Still, the latest leg up on the 7-day is pretty dramatic.

Glad to see rolling 7 deaths decrease. Let's hope it holds! (I don't think it will.)

[RustytheBailiff]

New York Times Reporting 1,244 new cases....

At least 1,244 new cases were reported in Oklahoma on July 27. Over the past week, there have been an average of 1,014 cases per day, an increase of 62 percent from the average two weeks earlier.

As of Tuesday morning, there have been at least 32,529 cases and 495 deaths in Oklahoma since the beginning of the pandemic, according to a New York Times database.

STAY SAFE WEAR MASKS

[David]

I am not a denialist of the virus. You can believe what you want, but I am only reporting a fact from the PA with said information.

I suspect if you look into it you will find out this PA is actually spreading the story she saw online and claiming it is her clinic to make it sound more believable. Maybe you could name the clinic so it can be independently verified?

[TheTravellers]

Saw this tonight and thought it was interesting/highly disturbing if true. Attachment 16291

Gosh, I'm shocked....

https://www.okctalk.com/showthread.p...t=#post1129402

[jerrywall]

Gosh, I'm shocked....

https://www.okctalk.com/showthread.p...t=#post1129402

This chart and the related conspiracy theory was created by a motivational speaker on youtube. This was posted in regards to this "chart" yesterday on Facebook.

July 27th COVID Fact Check: Did the change in reporting of hospital data from CDC to HHS affect case data?

In the screen capture below, a widely shared poster suggests that there is some illicit plan in motion by the Administration to reduce the number of tests published by the government through the movement of the hospital reporting system from the CDC to HHS. This SPECIFIC claim is clearly false.

The reason it is not possible for the move of hospital capacity data submission from the CDC to HHS to have caused the referenced changes in confirmed COVID-19 cases is that THOSE DATA ARE NOT CONTAINED IN THE HOSPITAL DATA. The hospital data that have been moved to the new HHS system include such metrics as hospital bed occupancy, ICU occupancy, PPE stocks, staffing availability and the like. They do not include test or death data. You can see what has been collected in this system here:

https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/rep...nt-impact.html

To reiterate, hospitals don't contribute to the national case or mortality data through this system. Case data are collected directly from the testing labs (and occasionally local health agencies) who send them to the CDC and continue to do so. You can see how this works at the following link.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...wI8LyEhweAVGwE

Posting charts and memes without supporting or referenced data spreads false information. This is just as damaging than the false information being spread by those downplaying the pandemic. It creates uncertainly and invalidates the seriousness of the crisis, because people can point and say the numbers can't be trusted. I've watched several people make that exact argument to the city council when fighting against a mask ordinance.

[LocoAko]

1089 new cases.

13 more deaths. Total has now surpassed 500.

Marginal dip in 7-day average to 947/day.

[C_M_25]

This chart and the related conspiracy theory was created by a motivational speaker on youtube. This was posted in regards to this "chart" yesterday on Facebook.



Posting charts and memes without supporting or referenced data spreads false information. This is just as damaging than the false information being spread by those downplaying the pandemic. It creates uncertainly and invalidates the seriousness of the crisis, because people can point and say the numbers can't be trusted. I've watched several people make that exact argument to the city council when fighting against a mask ordinance.

True. However, posting it here has brought about the truth behind the plot which is part of why I was posting it. Sometimes you guys are good for quick validation of something that I don’t have a lot of time to research. I appreciate you sharing that information. That bend in the curve was almost so egregious that it didn’t seem probable. You confirmed that. Thank you!

[Pete]

Oklahoma now ranks 34th in per capita cases.

And we keep rising.

[pw405]

...
Glad to see rolling 7 deaths decrease. Let's hope it holds! (I don't think it will.)

Level of surprise : 0.

Hey anybody good at Python scripting or possibly VB?

I've download every single EO and Weekly Epidemiology report in PDF. Looking for a method to extract all data points as text to make more graphs. You can do it manually, but a bit of a pain.

There are some open source apps for this, but need to tinker more.

May also get a free trial of Monarch, an enterprise app for exactly this thing, however two week trial and when it ends, I would be back to manual entry.

[jdizzle]

New York Times Reporting 1,244 new cases....

At least 1,244 new cases were reported in Oklahoma on July 27. Over the past week, there have been an average of 1,014 cases per day, an increase of 62 percent from the average two weeks earlier.

As of Tuesday morning, there have been at least 32,529 cases and 495 deaths in Oklahoma since the beginning of the pandemic, according to a New York Times database.

STAY SAFE WEAR MASKS

Let's stop posting the NYT #s for Oklahoma. Since they are not right.

[soonerguru]

Let's stop posting the NYT #s for Oklahoma. Since they are not right.

You're right. They are too low. We are now above 500 deaths.

[C_M_25]

It sure would be nice if we had a better handle on this before school starts back.

It’s going to be a cluster....

[soonerguru]

It sure would be nice if we had a better handle on this before school starts back.

It’s going to be a cluster....

There will be hundreds of cases in our schools on day one. There is no way to safely open.

[C_M_25]

There will be hundreds of cases in our schools on day one. There is no way to safely open.

Finally, something we agree on...

Just kidding of course.

[kukblue1]

Well Sadly or maybe not we have lost all the "but deaths are not increasing people". SMH This is awful we are now averaging close to more deaths than ever with more cases than ever and almost as many in the hospital than ever. We have to do more than just wearing mask. I see I think it's Kentucky that is going to close bars and 25% restaurants occupancy. This needs to happen here and happy now but we have a governor who is all about the money. What they are failing to realize is these business are going to go under anyway cause people are not going out to eat as much and if the numbers keep getting worse it's only going to get worse for them.

[TheTravellers]

Cut/pasted the text, but the graphs and other links in the thread are valuable, so people should check the original thread out. It's pretty much what the smart ones on here have been saying for weeks, if not months.

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1287524301499965441

COVID Update July 26: We can virtually eliminate the virus any time we decide to. 1/

We can be back to a reasonably normal existence: schools, travel, job growth, safer nursing homes & other settings.

And we could do it in a matter of weeks. If we want to. 2/

Take New Zealand. With its fancy curve and life back to normal. Why can’t we? 3/

Not fair you say. It’s an island nation.

OK. What about Germany? Not an island nation, large, growing diversity. 4/

Don’t like that comparison? What about countries that have been in big trouble. Here’s Italy, France & Spain. Countries that had it reasonably bad the same time we did. 5/

In fact pick virtually any country you want. 6/

But don’t tell me the U.S. can’t take action if we want to.

And we can’t face the families of 150,000 people who didn’t have to die & tell them this had to happen.

And I think it’s why our national political leaders won’t go near these families & the grieving process. 7/

The good news— and it is good news— is we are always 4-6 weeks from being able to do what countries around the world have done.8/

Let’s say we threw the kitchen sink at COVID-19 in the U.S. Let’s say we started now with the goal of being open for business in October— meaning schools, in person voting, sports, everything. If we did everything. What would happen? 9/

So let’s define the kitchen sink:
1. start with universal mask wearing. We didn’t do this in Mar-April and let’s chalk it up to faulty instructions. But we know better now.
2. Keep the bars & restaurants & churches & transit closed. All hot spots.
3. Prohibit interstate travel 10/

4. Prohibit travel into the country (no one will let us into their country so that shouldn’t be hard).
5. Have hotels set up to allow people with symptoms to isolate from their families at no cost. 11/

6. Instead of 50% lockdown (which is what we did in March in April), let’s say it’s a 90% lockdown.

Meaning most of the Americans who couldn’t stay home in April because they were picking crops or driving trucks or working in health care would stay home with us. 12/

That means the economy would take a several week hit. And we would need extended unemployment insurance. 13/

It would be a tough few weeks but we could still do things: be outside, enjoy nature, gather safely w friends.

Our grandparents who lived through a decade long depression, a 6 year world war, or whatever hardship they faced in their country would tell us we would make it.14/

We could even create friend & family bubbles. The NBA has been in a bubble for 3 weeks & starting with 10% positives have found & eliminated all cases.

You could even enjoy some of your time in the bubble. http://Smarturl.it/inthebubble 15/

So what would happen?

At first, absolutely nothing.

Cases would still grow from the prior weeks & the incubation period. Hospitals would still be full. We would still see people die.

The COVID truthers would have a field day, tweeting every day the same routine. 16/

“America has become a fascist government”
“We need to liberate”
“We’ve been doing this & nothing’s happening”
“More people are dying from non-COVID than COVID”

But if someone took Trump’s phone, it would help. 17/

(By the way, welcome to all the new people who suddenly care so much about public education, mental health & access to care.

While this is the first time you may have ever uttered these concerns, your passion & commitment to funding them once & for all is appreciated.)18/

After a few weeks, what would happen is what happened in other countries. In many countries, the R dropped to .3. Let’s say in the US it dropped to .5.

If you have 60,000 cases in your community, in 50 days, it would drop to 58.
6000 becomes 6.
600 becomes 1. 19/

How does that work? Some of the fancy people call this “exponential decay.” I call it #Zachsmath. Explained here.

Or just multiply 60,000 x .5. And then .5 again until you do it 10 times. Like Zach does. And other high schoolers. 20/

So after 8 weeks, you don’t have 0 cases but you have embers.

A small enough number that someone in the health department in a big city could call them on the phone in one morning.

In a small city, you could feed them w 2 large pizzas.

In a small town, it would be Earl. 21/

Earl was my dad’s name. He grew up in a small isolated town. He never loved the name but I like it a lot now.

In this case Earl would be fine because everybody would bring him soup and check in on him. 22/

Then what? You know how we don’t have enough tests? We would have plenty.

Plenty to test everyone going into work, to school, to church, to an event. And if there’s a stray case or a dozen, we would find it in a day. 23/

Becsuse we would get the tests back the same day, we could very easily let everybody who had been around Earl the last few days know they should get a test.

And if anybody tests positive, they would isolate, either at home or if there’s not enough room, in a hotel. 24/

All the PPE we keep running out of? We would have way too much. Ventilators? Way too many.

People who have suffered mental health crises? They could begin to deal with them.

The light at the end of the tunnel would be blinding. 25/

The man who cured small pox & is the greatest expert I know, @larrybrilliant, puts it this way: 26/

Would we be done at this point? Sadly not. Outbreaks can happen if you’re not paying attention.

But before you get horrified, look at the units. These are in the hundreds. Even if an outbreak was 5000 across the US, we would have more than enough testing & contact tracing.27/

Whether we do this or not, let’s not pretend this isn’t an option.

This is done mostly with the things we were born with or are very low tech. The ability not to breath on people. A mask. Common sense. (Yes I’m beginning to recognize the flaw.) 28/

And while we do this, what else happens? Well our nurses & doctors can catch their breath, recover & go back to healing our other issues. We hug our parents again. Our scientists can work on vaccines they can get right & safe. They can be speedy without rushing. 29/

We still take precautions. Masks in larger settings. In elevators. Around sick people. Because we care.

It will take a while for societal norms like these to develop but we can operate the way we did with tobacco control & build the norm. 30/

Communities would have green, yellow, orange & red days so we would know how to take precautions. Both before and after a vaccine. For as long as necessary.

We could manage the illness by exception not with a broad brush. 31/

[C_M_25]

What we’re really missing is that charge that unites and lights a fire under America/Oklahoma’s arse so that we prioritize this as a threat. If there’s one thing America has proved time and time again, is that when we unite and put an objective in our crosshairs, we cannot be defeated (ww2, unification and retaliation after 9/11, etc). We just don’t have that charge to unite us against covid. Leadership is likely to blame.

[soonerguru]

What we’re really missing is that charge that unites and lights a fire under America/Oklahoma’s arse so that we prioritize this as a threat. If there’s one thing America has proved time and time again, is that when we unite and put an objective in our crosshairs, we cannot be defeated (ww2, unification and retaliation after 9/11, etc). We just don’t have that charge to unite us against covid. Leadership is likely to blame.

Hydrochloroquine is enjoying a resurgence on media outlets like Breitbart, with copious social media shares. People would rather fish around for anecdotes based on fantasy and misinformation than take some basic recommended steps to slow / stop the spread of the virus. This isn't a mystery, but for a lot of people, loyalty to Trump is more important than any statement of medical or scientific fact. This isn't rocket science.

[TheTravellers]

Here’s your field guide to the 5 main types of pandemic deniers

[Dustin]

[Rivalyn]

Hydrochloroquine is enjoying a resurgence on media outlets like Breitbart, with copious social media shares. People would rather fish around for anecdotes based on fantasy and misinformation than take some basic recommended steps to slow / stop the spread of the virus. This isn't a mystery, but for a lot of people, loyalty to Trump is more important than any statement of medical or scientific fact. This isn't rocket science.

I saw that and I still don't understand the fascination with that (not an actual) cure. I've had conversations with several peers about the importance of wearing masks and the most frustrating is the one that doesn't want to wear a mask, espouses they'll just take hydroxychloroquine if they get it, and yet is comfortable with that when they're not comfortable with vaccines. The whole saying, "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure," got logged into the book of common sense for a reason in theory.

[David]

I saw that and I still don't understand the fascination with that (not an actual) cure. I've had conversations with several peers about the importance of wearing masks and the most frustrating is the one that doesn't want to wear a mask, espouses they'll just take hydroxychloroquine if they get it, and yet is comfortable with that when they're not comfortable with vaccines. The whole saying, "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure," got logged into the book of common sense for a reason in theory.

People who get sold snake oil don't want to admit their mistake.

[kukblue1]

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...ndoor-capacity Kentucky don't seem to be nearly as bad as shape as Oklahoma but at least they have a governor that cares

[Bill Robertson]

What we’re really missing is that charge that unites and lights a fire under America/Oklahoma’s arse so that we prioritize this as a threat. If there’s one thing America has proved time and time again, is that when we unite and put an objective in our crosshairs, we cannot be defeated (ww2, unification and retaliation after 9/11, etc). We just don’t have that charge to unite us against covid. Leadership is likely to blame.

I agree with that lighting a fire idea. But I’m becoming less inclined to blame leadership. I said weeks ago I didn’t personally know, know of or know anybody who knows anyone that had COVID. Now I of course can’t say that since I had it. And I do now know and know of a number of people that have had it. But I can still say the original comment if I replace “had COVID” with “was made sick by COVID”. All those I personally know of had no or minor symptoms. I think the problem with getting people to take this seriously enough to light that fire is so many not personally knowing anyone really suffering from the virus. I don’t need to in order to take it seriously. I take it very seriously without personal experience of really bad sickness. I don’t want anyone to go through hospitalization or dying of this thing but many won’t feel that way without it being personal.